Win at lowest cost. Basically, a Ukraine 2014 model, rather than a Ukraine 2022 model.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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You are mistaken. This is not a war between China and Taiwan.
This is (worst case scenario) a WW3 between China and US/NATO/other puppets.
If it was only between China and Taiwan, China would had already pulled the trigger years ago.
You mean the Russian takeover of Crimea or the US orchestrated regime change in Kiev? Neither of these scenarios are possible in Taiwan, the only reason why the takeover of Crimea was so successful is because the Russian army was already present in there plus the Ukrainian military barely had any presence plus more than 90% of Crimeans supported Russia.
In the case of the regime change in Kiev the main reason why it successeded was because the Ukrainian people were so desperate (economically) they all wanted to escape to Germany because Germany has a GDP per capita that is like ten times that of Ukraine so the people got out and screamed to go to Germany.
How long would it take for China to have a GDP per capita that is 10 times that of Taiwan so that the Taiwanese people start screaming by the millions in the streets to join China? Like may be after a hundred years from now? So we have to wait that long for reunification?
So no a Ukraine 2014 model is not possible in Taiwan. Unless if the new timeline for reunification is at the end of this century.
when I said to @ZeEa5KPul "so you think China would lose if they invade this year" I don't mean lose against Taiwan (duh), obviously I mean do you think China would lose against the west economically due to sanctions after a Taiwan invasion!
Militarily and under sleepy Joe's leadership there is no way the US would even fire a single bullet in defence of Taiwan so no chance of WWIII, not even in the worst case scenario.
It's not an exact 1 for 1 match but basically just slowly weaken and demoralize Taiwan with sanctions, taking away their key industries, and encouraging via economic and military pressure for all the smart Taiwanese to emigrate away - the pro China ones to China, the fascists to US and Japan.
Once they're weakened and demoralized enough a relatively small and fast show of force with elimination of their air defenses, navy and air bases, plus maybe some light carpet bombing, along with more strength behind to discourage foreign intervention, would convince them to give up.
I don't know why in all of these scenarios China is the passive one who needs to respond to sanctions being imposed on it. It's next to impossible for Europe to impose meaningful sanctions on China, but it is very possible for China to impose them on Europe.
The only thing that holds back China from doing so is the few things that the west produces that China doesn't. That list is shrinking fast and will soon be zero. If that happens you can say goodbye to the era of cheap phones, electronics and everything else in the west.
From China's perspective, it's better if trade continued as much as possible.
But if other countries impose sanctions, then yes, I would expect China to impose targeted sanctions in response.
And because the supply routes out of China will be disrupted, China can choose who it wants to supply.
And with those shortages comes higher prices. I wouldn't be surprised if China actually sells less stuff but actually makes more profits than before. We've seen this happen with Russian oil and gas since the Ukraine War started.
China could also insist on receiving RMB instead of USD for its goods. And for CIPS to be used instead of SWIFT. This might crash the US Dollar and it's reserve currency status.
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Let's say that China continues to ship out antibiotics and medicines to neighbouring ASEAN countries and other countries in the world.
It will be in the interests of those ASEAN countries and every other country in the world to ignore any US sanctions. And to protect these cargo ships and aircraft from any US attempts to blockade.
Otherwise hospitals and doctors will run out of antibiotics and other medicines.
I'm sure 52% of Americans favor using US troops.
I wonder how that number changes when the question becomes "Would you support using US troops if your kids are going to be drafted?"
Lets not repeat the sanction discussion again please. We already had that back and forth some hundreds pages back. To summarise:
- Sanctioning China means they sanction themselves.
- China has so much industry that is the West that should be worried if China decides to sanction them.
- Their dollars/euros become worthless overnight.
No...I think it is only needed as long as China needs to import from the west. Exports to the west should be limited in value to imports from the west.
In fact that's why I think we are seeing these COVID lockdowns in China but nowhere else. The trade deficit has grown too big and it's a way to reduce exports to the west without the political fallout of sanctions. It's better to reduce economic output than to produce things for America only for the dollar payments to be frozen and seized.
China's also big enough now that if it's economy slows down, so does America and the rest of the world. Win win.
Taking only RMB as a form of payment is something @ZeEa5KPul has said in the past. The problem with it is doesn't solve the problem of China exports a lot to the west but importing little. The only way for the west to generate yuan is to export something to China, either directly or indirectly.
America, Canada and Australia would be fine but Europe would be screwed.
China trade more with most countries than the US, so by default most countries would ditch America for China if push came to shove. I think if decoupling occurs neutral countries would trade with both though. Neither China nor America would be big enough to force countries to stop trading with the other nation.
Precursor drugs and active ingredients would be a great thing to block. If they want drugs they can buy the finished product. Luxury goods would be the number one for me though. Sportswear, western brands of cars, wine and spirits. All have Chinese or non western alternatives yet bring in billions upon billions of dollars of revenue for western companies.
Whether its started by the west or by China the west will lose any trade war.
@Broccoli are you that slime douchebag that posts on Pakistan defense forum that keeps posting negative shit/propaganda crap against China?
Your latest magnum opus is posting the retarded Peter Zeihan's mumbo jumbo analysis of yet another impending collapse or China. Then you doubled down on your reasons when confronted about your obsession with a country tha is far remove from your own. Rationalizing your obsession with Xi is a dictator and not elected leader, if there's no genocide in Xinjiang why accompany "foreign journalists" with guides with an implication that there is genocide going on. And then making absurd accusations that Chinese people won't and can not deviate from the truth because of the repercussions.
You have been on this forum for quite some time and yet during your years of stay and interactions with actual Chinese folks on this forum it seem nothing was gained. You're just as delusional as ever proving my theory that your kind was and is never interested with genuine exchange of ideas; you want to dominate and subordinate us to your way of thinking and life. Your ancestors imperialistic, genocidal tendencies are like character traits embedded in your thick skulls which is rather unfortunate.
So spare us with your human rights bullshit because you're a two face S.O.B. reading your ranks on that forum makes my blood boil.
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