Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
obj 705A said:
Regarding the Taiwan policy act, The aim of this bill is to integrate the Taiwanese military into the US military, The US already has officially few dozens of soldiers in Taiwan, unofficially probably higher and the number will probably increase as the weapons' shipment increase to integrate the ROC military with the US, so that eventually they can send to Taiwan (and help Taiwan develop) more advanced and longer range radars & missiles to help in the encirclement of China.

Their aim would not be to wage an actual war on China, but it is to militarize the Taiwan island and turn it into one massive military base to help de-fang China by having this military advantage of missiles and radars in Chinese territory, This would force China to be less bold in it's foreign policy.

The big idea of some people on the forums regarding Taiwan is that China shouldn't make use of the current weak senile leadership of the US plus the massive economic weakness that the US/EU are suffering from, and instead wait till the west recovers and have (probably) a stronger leadership (I mean you can't get weaker than Biden) and wait till the US does all the bills and military things they want to do regarding Taiwan and then wait more and more till China becomes so much larger than the west.. basically wait till China becomes god and then invade Taiwan. This way of thinking is not strategy, it is cowardice. "hey I know the enemy is now unbelievably week but still I should wait few more decades before I make a move, just to be safe".

If I were to describe this way of thinking with an analogy.. imagine if there is a guy who is scared of cockroaches, he just found a huge one in his room and it's flying all over his room, but then this roach lands on a glue trap and it sticks to it but it's still moving a little bit, there is an object right besides him that he can use to smash the roach but then the guy says "oh what if I miss the roach and it flies into my face, I should go to the other room to grab a much bigger object, just to be safe" then the guy goes out, brings the bigger object and comes back only to find that the roach escaped the trap and now the guy has to spend the entire day moving furniture looking for the roach to kill it. He unnecessarily made it harder for himself by being hesitant.

China already said they will speed up reunification, they will not wait till they are a 40$-50$ trillion economy, hopefully that means the Chinese leadership doesn't share this same mindset of "hey, let's wait for our enemies to recover and then wait several more decades".
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The bill is a way for the U.S. to salvage some face and maybe deter China from acting. If the U.S. really wanted to join the U.S. military with that of the Taiwanese, there is no need for this act. The president and the military will just do it, maybe covertly.
There is no way to defend Taiwan by stationing U.S. ships or troops in there. They will be blown up just like their Taiwanese counterparts in the case of an invasion. The public outcry of losing U.S. ships and troops will force the U.S. government to respond militarily in a losing situation. No president would be so stupid. If we had any military options, we would respond more forcefully after the Chinese exercises. It is the safest way to flex your muscles and keep your credibility. We have already lost all credibility by not doing that.
It is like passing a law to deter gun violence. If someone decides to shoot, laws won't stop them.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
The way I see it is US will drag out the conflict by containing global trade with China by stopping/attacking any trade. Meanwhile sabotage any land trade China has in BRI with terrorist attacks and bombing. Most of US land army will be deployed across the globe to cut off Chinese trading routes not in a direct battle near China.
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But Europe is not going to even sanction China, never mind go to war.
So how is the US cutting off China-Europe trade going to work?

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"Officials in Berlin acknowledge in private that Germany would not be able to endorse anything beyond token sanctions against China"
"the study notes that the Chinese are reducing their dependence on the region, while European exposure to China is increasing."

Why Germany won’t get tough on Beijing — even if it invades Taiwan
politico.eu/article/why-germany-wont-get-tough-on-beijing-even-if-it-invades-taiwan/

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And if Germany doesn't impose sanctions, that will set the standard for the rest of the European Union and also Switzerland.

Swiss set to match EU sanctions if China invades Taiwan - agency chief
reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/swiss-set-match-eu-sanctions-if-china-invades-taiwan-agency-chief-2022-07-30/
 
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zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
reservior dogs said:
The bill is a way for the U.S. to salvage some face and maybe deter China from acting. If the U.S. really wanted to join the U.S. military with that of the Taiwanese, there is no need for this act. The president and the military will just do it, maybe covertly.
There is no way to defend Taiwan by stationing U.S. ships or troops in there. They will be blown up just like their Taiwanese counterparts in the case of an invasion. The public outcry of losing U.S. ships and troops will force the U.S. government to respond militarily in a losing situation. No president would be so stupid. If we had any military options, we would respond more forcefully after the Chinese exercises. It is the safest way to flex your muscles and keep your credibility. We have already lost all credibility by not doing that.
It is like passing a law to deter gun violence. If someone decides to shoot, laws won't stop them.
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Do you remember Zelensky?When NATO actually took over the command of the Ukrainian army, the decision-making power of the peace talks would not be in his hands.
The Americans can completely control Taiwan without sending a large army.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
zhangjim said:
Do you remember Zelensky?When NATO actually took over the command of the Ukrainian army, the decision-making power of the peace talks would not be in his hands.
The Americans can completely control Taiwan without sending a large army.
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NATO got Zelensky by the balls because it is providing supplies to sustain the war. Taiwan is an island. Good luck trying to provide supplies under PLA fires.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
But Europe is not going to even sanction China, never mind go to war.
So how is the US cutting off China-Europe trade going to work?

---

"Officials in Berlin acknowledge in private that Germany would not be able to endorse anything beyond token sanctions against China"
"the study notes that the Chinese are reducing their dependence on the region, while European exposure to China is increasing."

Why Germany won’t get tough on Beijing — even if it invades Taiwan
politico.eu/article/why-germany-wont-get-tough-on-beijing-even-if-it-invades-taiwan/

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And if Germany doesn't impose sanctions, that will set the standard for the rest of the European Union and also Switzerland.

Swiss set to match EU sanctions if China invades Taiwan - agency chief
reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/swiss-set-match-eu-sanctions-if-china-invades-taiwan-agency-chief-2022-07-30/
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Things could be different if USA is involved in the war with Taiwan, and the Ukraine war is over.
 
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W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
"Officials in Berlin acknowledge in private that Germany would not be able to endorse anything beyond token sanctions against China"

Exactly the same we heard before the "Ukrainian Gambit".

Sorry to repeat myself but I know the scriptwriters and the "Taiwanese Gambit" is clear as the broth of an asylum: provoke Beijing to give the order to attack, create a gigantic west-media outcry, further dominate the club of European vassals and "fuck EU". That the plan is very crazy, yes, but that's how crazy Washingtonians are.

Berlin will submissively obey the Anglo-Master. We are living it live, why fool ourselves once again.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
W20 said:
"Officials in Berlin acknowledge in private that Germany would not be able to endorse anything beyond token sanctions against China"

Exactly the same we heard before the "Ukrainian Gambit".

Sorry to repeat myself but I know the scriptwriters and the "Taiwanese Gambit" is clear as the broth of an asylum: provoke Beijing to give the order to attack, create a gigantic west-media outcry, further dominate the club of European vassals and "fuck EU". That the plan is very crazy, yes, but that's how crazy Washingtonians are.

Berlin will submissively obey the Anglo-Master. We are living it live, why fool ourselves once again.
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They will very likely sanction China even if it means destroying themselves. US CIA propaganda combined with NeoCons European politicians will easily make the public pile huge pressure to act. If it goes the other way then the public will just blame the government for not doing enough.
 
obj 705A

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
reservior dogs said:
The bill is a way for the U.S. to salvage some face
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I'm pretty sure the bill came out long before the Chinese exercises so the bill is not about "saving face" it's about policy. Since international law doesn't support interference in Chinese internal affairs, the US passes local laws to legitimise it's otherwise illegitimate actions. The US always does that for example that's what they did with Meng Wangzhou, by international standards they basically abducted her yet they would defend what they did to her by passing local laws and saying "hey we are just following the law, why are those Chinese against following the law".

reservior dogs said:
There is no way to defend Taiwan by stationing U.S. ships or troops in there. They will be blown up just like their Taiwanese counterparts in the case of an invasion.
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Defend Taiwan? You are talking as if I was saying the US will declare war on China. and any way in case of a war they won't station ships in Taiwan, I specifically said the US has no intention of waging war on China. Officially the US already has a small number of soldiers in Taiwan, unofficially the number is probably higher. To de-fang China doesn't mean the US will launch a preemptive strike on the mainland from Taiwan, it just means to have a certain military advantage over China to make it less bold in it's foreign policy.
Taiwan is just a pawn, the US will never go to war with China over Taiwan no matter what, well unless if the US is ruled by an absolute hawkish right winger in which case yeah may be they would defend Taiwan who knows.

In regards to "public outcry", the only outcry in the US is the outcry that is hostile to China, most Americans actually want to go to war with China.

"When asked about a range of potential scenarios, just over half of Americans (52%) favor using US troops to defend if China were to invade the island."
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W20

Junior Member
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Yes

The sad reality is that the West has become a religious cult, and no one in public can go off script.

The plebs are allowed to wear the two approved mental programs on their heads: Troglodyte 4.0 (an improved version of the caveman) and BoboLiberal 1.0 (a version that allows the user to see himself above his brother-in-law)

But they can't talk about anything that affects the core of power in London and Washington.

Let us think for a moment about a simple fact, a small fact, but tremendous in its significance. Finland is not part of NATO. The chairman of the parliament's foreign affairs committee wrote a simple sentence expressing a simple and reasonable thought* - "maybe someone should say that Ukraine should not join NATO" - and was forced to resign and apologize.

*: Let's remember that this is exactly what none other than the author of the Long Telegram thought

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ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
obj 705A said:
To de-fang China doesn't mean the US will launch a preemptive strike on the mainland from Taiwan, it just means to have a certain military advantage over China to make it less bold in it's foreign policy.
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That is impossible to maintain. There is no way the US can hold a military advantage over a superpower in its own backyard. What the US is doing is no more than a dog barking. One of these nights, China is going to pick up its rifle and put a round through the dog's skull and that will be the end of this sorry affair.

It doesn't matter what laws the US passes, what its public "thinks" or anything else. The balance of power is shifting decisively in China's favour and that preordains its victory.
 
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