Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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efficient_kiwi said:
Thank you for this comment, and please know that I will be completely sincere in this response. Perhaps there was a bit of sarcasm in other ones, lol, but I am going to be completely sincere in this one.

I totally agree with you re: a counterproductive dynamic. I just think we’re operating from very different pretexts, since you seem to think peaceful unification is possible (which is not the case for me, for reasons below). I actually think I understand why the Chinese think Taiwan should be part of China. Historically(well, up until 1895 happened) and culturally(well, up until we were cut off for 4 decades or so), it makes far more sense for Taiwan to be part of China than independent. I think the closest analogy would be Hokkaido and Japan: fairly recently colonized (by the Japanese from Honshu, in this case, about two centuries after Koxinga removed the Dutch), some geographical barriers (though of course, the Tsugaru Strait is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait), a fairly significant indigenous population that was brutally dispersed, etc. The difference however, is that the 清 dynasty was incompetent, arrogant, debaucherous, and senile, and couldn’t even hold on to one of their most lucrative and quickly-modernizing provinces, unlike the Japanese who reformed and beat the Russians decisively. As the Athenians once said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” C’est la vie.

Ok, that was a pretty significant detour and this isn’t supposed to be a history lesson. The issue, I think, that is causing all the moral theater is that most Taiwanese no longer think it possible to convince the Chinese of Taiwan’s independence. Peaceful independence has always been a pipe dream, and other options such as 一國兩制 are no longer acceptable after seeing what happened to Hong Kong. I recall 真普選, 雨傘革, and 反送中 very vividly. I’m going to be frank with you: I no longer think peaceful unification is possible. The recent comments from your ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, has only solidified this view. I’m sure you’ve heard, but he insisted that the Taiwanese will be subjected to “re-education” after unification. Your government is going to subject us to the same treatment as Uyghurs, who were bombing train stations and randomly stabbing people in the streets, while I am pretty sure that there have been nada Taiwanese terrorism attacks. 是可忍，孰不可忍？

Considering that we are currently outnumbered, outspent, out-teched by the Chinese, plus engaging in dialogue appears to be futile (considering the gulf between our two peoples, not to mention governments), what else is there to do but condescend and engage in vague moral concepts such as democracy and human rights? It’s one of the final joys left to a people who is likely to suffer great pain and suffering sometime in the decades to come. I care about moral theater not because I don’t care about practical outcomes, but because I cannot see any practical outcome that is acceptable to me. Why should we unify if we are fine on our own? If we unify, is there a future where we choose our own leadership through free and fair elections, where we can assemble in the streets and protest the government, and where we can post funny pictures of Xi Jinping as Winnie? (Actually, I think you can do the latter now if I’m correct, but that initial censoring was so bizarre.) Would such an 一國兩制 be even remotely acceptable to the CCP? I think not, though I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

I just don’t think there is such a future short of some miracle where a) the Chinese people are collectively brainwashed into thinking Taiwan is independent, b) Taiwan breaks a blockade, throws the PLA back across the Taiwan Strait, and avoids starving to death, or c) the Chinese economy inexplicably collapses. Short of these, it’s likely that I would die in the war or be re-educated sometime in my late-twenties to early-thirties, and that is just f-ing unfortunate. So, so, so f-ing unfortunate.

So to all the Chinese people reading this, forgive the 灣灣’s condescension and snobbishness. It is about the only thing left to these Taiwanese who see clearly that we are the Melians to the Chinese’s Athenians, and yet will not, cannot, stomach the thought of simply laying down without a fight. Many of us are, I believe, stuck between a rock and a hard place. So we try to 富國強兵 as best as we can, and we laugh at the Chinese on the internet whenever we get the chance, while we try to not think too hard about the 東風 and 鷹擊 ready to blow us to bits. At the same time, I’m sorry about the mockery and condescension, but some of you must realize how ridiculous figures like 華春瑩 are, right? Recent tweet of “palates don’t cheat” being exhibit A. (I can lay out why I think it was absolutely hilarious if any of y'all are interested. )

I apologize for any emotional discourse. In the meantime, in the interest of convincing at least some Chinese that Taiwan is indeed currently de facto independent, I will take any questions you may have on this matter. I’m not sure how many of you don’t think Taiwan is de facto independent, but regardless, I’m open to questions. And I will try to avoid any condescension or moral theater whatsoever. Whether Taiwan should be independent is another matter entirely. I personally think it should be subjected to a referendum like the Quebec or Scottish ones, with the terms of a referendum laid out in an act (something like the Clarity Act in Canada) passed by the Legislative Yuan to legitimize the secession of a region from the ROC. The reality of the situation, however, is that the PRC will do what they please ‘cuz they got the big guns. There is no “justice” to be discussed ‘til we also get some big guns.

TL;DR: practical outcomes outside of war hopeless, chances of persuading Chinese people of Taiwanese independence nil, open to discourse but to me it is probably useless anyhow, still, open to questions.
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Taiwan is de facto independent, that is the problem. I think you don't understand what the term de facto means. If a thief stole a watch, he is the de facto owner of the watch, it doesn't legitimise his ownership in any way.

I don't understand why Taiwanese are so protective of their government. First Taiwan isn't a democracy, even by western standards. The communist party is banned in Taiwan. Even during the height of the cold war no western democracy banned communist parties, despite some of them becoming very big. Pro-Chinese voices are constitutionally banned, suppressed or channelled through controlled opposition KMT.

Second, your government is selling you out. Why do you think Pelosi was in Taiwan? America is trying to strip away your one selling point in the modern world, microprocessors. She is trying to force companies like TMSC to relocate to America and your leaders are happily encouraging her. Isn't the standard of life, social welfare, high paying jobs more important than a group of politicians you will likely never meet?

A referendum is never going to be the answer. A population under an illegal regime can never express their democratic will. If you think that's unfair ask an American about a referendum in Xinjiang or the upcoming referendum in east Ukraine. If Taiwan holds one it will not be recognised and will likely lead to further erosion of Taiwanese autonomy post reunification. I doubt America would agree to allowing Taiwan to hold one, although they may encourage it through one of their puppets like Lithuania or Poland.

The more anti-China your regime becomes, the more Taiwanese will suffer. It's already been announced that once reunification occurs PLA will no longer pledge not to deploy a garrison on the Island. That's a decision I agree with and I think it was insanely generous to allow the Taiwanese regime that much freedom in the past. Next up will probably be an insistence on changes to the Taiwanese constitution.
 
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dasCKD

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Biscuits said:
Only by first winning the cold war can China afterwards open up the western controlled population to its messaging.

There will be no convincing of an ultranationalist enemy that has been blinded by propaganda since birth unless they witness a catastrophic defeat.
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Honestly, this is the kind of self-defeating thinking that the Chinese government apparatus has to avoid at all costs. "This is a pointless battle to take." "The enemy are stronger and better established than us anyways." Obviously they are. China has no effective outward-facing propaganda and diplomatic apparatus. Do you think China had a navy that could fight against the US navy in the 20th century? Of course not. Do you know what the China of that generation did? They started building one.

Here's the thing. You don't need to 'win' the propaganda war for propaganda to be effective. The propaganda should be first and foremost designed for both the generation of international sympathy and the degradation of anti-Chinese sentiments. Amongst pacifists in the west, spread the message that the war is avoidable and noninterference is best for everyone. Amongst the general public, spread the knowledge of financial interconnectedness and propagate resources on Chinese strategic resilience to make it blatantly clear that they can't just 'blockade China' and have China implode. Increase the political costs of American politicians taking an aggressive stance against China and match the rhetoric of those that would be an obstacle against American involvement. Amongst ardent nationalists and the MAGA types, talk again about how the politicians want to waste American taxpayer dollars(tm) fighting wars instead of supporting American local businesses(tm). Throw in some talk about how politicians are getting kickbacks from arms industry types for extra culture war points.

The point of propaganda isn't to make it so that every American soldier throws down their guns and not fight a war. The point of propaganda is as another weapon in the Chinese arsenal. China won't win a war with just the J-20 or the Type 055 or the DFs alone. The point of propaganda is to make conditions as favorable for China as possible. In the event of an armed reunification, America and Japan will probably interfere and attack anyways. What propaganda can do is change whether the Americans are willing to tolerate fifty thousand or fifty million deaths before they give up. It can change whether Europe will join in with America and sanction China or whether they'd just do what ASEAN has done in the recent crisis and just talk about how they'd rather everyone put down their weapons and get along. Propaganda can decide whether or not the US navy will get 100 billion extra in the pre-war buildup for more personnel and weapons, whether they'll be widespread anti-war protests in the streets, whether Americans would be willing to tolerate a 3% or a 30% decrease to their GDP, whether America is willing to tolerate a five month long war or a five year long one, and whether they'll be widespread riots in the streets when conditions get bad.
Biscuits said:
Think about it the reverse way, China is a country that largely does not have major nationalist elements. Kids grow up believing all races and classes are equal, in school they watch Japanese anime, learn English literature, learn European history, and then take vacations in Europe or Japan. Yet, the propaganda of the West has a very hard time breaking inside the country.
In contrast, Americans seldom travel outside America, racism is deeply ingrained into the culture, in every US classroom it is mandated to have an American flag, it is strongly discouraged to learn Chinese, the police force practices unequal treatment to "undesirables", all Americans are expected to show "America first" thinking or face public scrutiny.
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I'd pretty empathically disagree that nationalism isn't major in China, but it is unquestionably a much larger part of the American psyche. A large part of this is due to how effective American propaganda has been and how little effort China has put into actually opposing this massive, sophisticated, and effective propaganda apparatus.
Biscuits said:
So you can see that even in a relatively open country where the people are quite free to have openly internationalist/World citizen tendencies, it is hard to infiltrate with propaganda, then it is 100% impossible to infiltrate US unless regime change can be realized first, because US simply runs a much tigher ship than China does.

You cannot put the cart in front of the horse and expect it to just work out. First, China needs a friendly government in charge of America that lifts all its controls and restrictions, only then can values be spread to them.
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More self defeating thinking. You are suggesting not even trying to contest American propaganda until the conditions are essentially perfect and, quite frankly, basically unachievable. American nationalism runs deep and even American 'leftists' still display shocking amounts of nationalistic tendencies.

And you know what? It is still ABSOLUTELY VITAL that China constructs an effective propaganda apparatus. You say I'm putting the cart before the horse, but I can't help but see you missing the forest for the trees. Again, it is not required that China is seen more positively than America for Chinese propaganda to be effective. It is sufficient if China manages to weaken policies that disadvantage China, weaken internal American and western cohesion, build sympathy with countries outside the imperial core, and push American and western sentiments against the war against China.

Why, for example, do you think Russian state media and troll farms support the BLM movement? Do you think Russia cares about African Americans and their wellbeing? Of course not. They're doing it because it weakens American state power and sows division. Any gains made by China in terms of weakening American cohesion, resolve, and warfighting capability is one that doesn't have to be paid for later by Chinese life and treasure. That is just the way it is. Propaganda is vital.
 
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dasCKD

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sndef888 said:
It's difficult. To get to the caliber of western propaganda they'd need native english writers who are used to the style of writing of western propaganda WHILE not falling for it. Look at how Xinhua/GT articles always use weird language and grammar.

The best bet would probably be to set up more SCMP-like publications in Hong Kong/Macau while hiring exclusively western-educated "tankies" like the Grayzone writers and a few liberals as controlled opposition. But then it'll also have to be subtle enough to be considered credible, which might be an issue
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China really needs this and they need to build this sooner rather than later. It takes time to build institutions, raise media profile, attract talent, and raise public perception and trust in these vectors of propagandistic and diplomatic warfare. Fortunately, the Chinese government is quite frankly in one of the best positions to construct such an apparatus. With the finances and pull it has, it can bribe or negotiate with the likes of google to put Chinese-sourced articles and resources at the top. The PRC can leverage so many instruments to construct this new facet of international power.

When people in the west try to hear from experts on American strategy, finances, or institutions, they'll find American and western experts and government mouthpieces in media and on the internet. When people in the west want to hear the same thing about China, they hear from American and western experts instead. Forget not being trusted. China, honestly, doesn't even seem to want to speak for itself. This is something that, quite frankly, will cost Chinese lives if reunification goes hot.
 
BoeingEngineer

BoeingEngineer

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SunlitZelkova said:
Again, to be clear, there is nothing wrong with your argument, I would just like to emphasize how it is important to consider all possibilities.

Expanding the nuclear deterrent should be China's number one priority now. Without it, the US could feel pressured to intervene in Taiwan even if it knows it can't win, and may feel a war with China is feasible, if not desirable.

Nowadays, US strength does not lie in conventional arms or industry, but instead in nuclear weapons. While the tables may have turned in Europe with Russia purportedly relying more on nuclear weapons for defence while NATO holds conventional dominance, it is likely the opposite in Asia- the US is obviously conventionally inferior but it does retain a large nuclear arsenal. I suspect the only reason this isn't acknowledged is because a) there is a tendency in general, even in the supposedly most qualified think tanks of the world, to think that Cold War over = no more nuclear threat and b) the US does not want to appear to be the aggressor and due to political reasons it can't swing it's nuclear stick around in a wonton manner like it could in the 50s.

The possibility that the US government could lash out and launch a full scale intervention over Taiwan should still be seriously considered despite the events of the past weeks. After Ukraine, the US could feel pressured to intervene to stop what it sees as a return to use of military power to achieve policy goals similar to the 1930s once and for all. Despite knowing it lacks conventional superiority it may over rely on it's nuclear arsenal and underestimate China's resolve to take the island. The idea that Taiwan is nothing more than a rally round the flag cause for another corrupt and greedy authoritarian government remains strong in US thinking, i.e. the whole of the US establishment treats China and Taiwan like Iraq and Kuwait. Not the talking heads in the newspapers and online commentary websites, the people who actually hold power and make decisions. We see a similar situation with Russia and Ukraine. In contrast, the US of 60 years ago understood the USSR was not merely an aggressive dictatorship but actually sought to achieve security goals in Cuba and came to a compromise with the latter. It should not be assumed the same can be counted on in the US, not only now but onwards throughout the century.

The danger of a US-China war may have increased rather than been shown to be low. Taiwan isn't merely a South Vietnam to the American empire, it is more like West Berlin. A fall of Taiwan without US intervention would signal the end of American power in the region and be enough of a shock to force the pro-US establishment out of Japan and potentially even South Korea sooner or later. Even if Biden (or his administration, to be more accurate) refuses to accept that, the political and economic establishment will not have it. If it would have it, and was more interested in maintaining its economic fortunes instead of political goals as some have claimed, none of this tension and salami slicing over Taiwan would exist in the first place, and therefore I don't think they have such interests at heart and remain bent on maintaining American dominance in Asia no matter the cost. But instead of being suicidal or being somehow soullessly capable of accepting the economic devastation of a US-China war, they likely don't even understand the consequences of what might happen, just as Japan had no idea what it was actually getting itself into during WWII.

*Again, there is nothing wrong with that argument, even it it seems like I am trying to invalidate it. I simply think the "peaceful reunification is inevitable" opinion that has been going around here is just as dangerous as the calls for war, and that all options need to be considered.
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Agree 110%.

Expanding China's nuclear arsenal to equal to the combined Russian + US size is necessary for total world destruction, if it escalated to that end.

However, I completely disagree that China should reveal its true nuclear might until the invasion of Taiwan commence or at worst 3 month ahead. This way, it will send shock and awe to the US while giving US no time to properly react!

The current western BS that China only has 350 nukes is PERFECT as it denies the US any excuse to spend more on missile defense, reduce its nuke stockpile while limiting the number of nukes they carry on their missiles. The last thing China wants is to revel its true nuclear might and allow the US to change that.

We all know that China's soon armed reunification of Taiwan can only end in two ways: 1. Complete Chinese takeover of the island. 2. Nuclear exchange between China and US!
 
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