Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Which variant of J-10 will be sent to Thailand for the exercise?

On an important note, here're a brief glimpse of the results from a joint exercise between the PLAAF and RTAF from 2015:
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The Su-27SK/J-11As of the PLAAF scored exceptionally good in close-range WVR combat, but flopped completely in medium and long-range BVR combat against the Gripen C/Ds of the RTAF.

Apart from obvious technological gap between the older Su-27SK/J-11As and newer Gripen C/Ds, poor situational awareness, judgement and decision making skills, among others, were cited as reasons to the poor performance of the PLAAF pilots in the 2015 exercise.

Besides, I kind of remember that J-10s were sent to the same exercise as well, although I couldn't find any sources to back up the claim.

I do hope that the PLAAF would score better this time around, especially in BVR combat. Also, why aren't any J-11s being sent this time?
 
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Which variant of J-10 will be sent to Thailand for the exercise?

On an important note, here're a brief glimpse of the results from a joint exercise between the PLAAF and RTAF from 2015:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The Su-27SK/J-11As of the PLAAF scored exceptionally good in close-range WVR combat, but flopped completely in medium and long-range BVR combat against the Gripen C/Ds of the RTAF.

Apart from obvious technological gap between the older Su-27SK/J-11As and newer Gripen C/Ds, poor situational awareness, judgement and decision making skills, among others, were cited as reasons to the poor performance of the PLAAF pilots in the 2015 exercise.

Besides, I kind of remember that J-10s wete sent to the same exercise as well, although I couldn't find any sources to back up the claim.

I do hope that the PLAAF would score better this time around, especially in BVR combat. Also, why aren't any J-11s being sent this time?

J-10A was sent in 2017/2018 and J-10C in 2019. According to Yankeesama they performed well both BVR and WVR but suspected that Thai aircraft held back on stuff like ECM.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I hate for this to devolve into a political argument, but the Taiwanese also get a good laugh from videos of how your government operates. Like this one:

I personally find both videos hilarious political theater.
What bothers me about a lot of Taiwanese perspectives on this issue is that people are so fixated on moral theater and it doesn’t help at all resolve the problem. Even if you’re pro independence realistically Taiwan will never be able to achieve independence peacefully without persuading people in China to find that outcome acceptable, and being condescending just encourages people in China to adopt harsher attitudes towards Taiwanese perspectives. Is that fair? No. But the harsh reality of politics is that the most realistic solutions are rarely ever fair. You have to genuinely care about the other side’s views if you want to find common ground, and in my experience a lot of Taiwanese like to feign that they care as a matter of looking morally superior without really acknowledging when people from the Chinese side don’t feel listened to. This is understandable, as obviously everyone wants to settle things on their own terms, and China’s natural position of power in this situation means the Chinese side can afford to be less sensitive to Taiwanese views, but in this kind of situation you can either care about moral theater or you can care about practical outcomes. The former actively works against the latter, and the former has a predictable ending that is going to be far worse for Taiwan than it will be for China. Because at some point the pain of being isolated by the western world for using force against Taiwan is going to be negligible and tolerable for China, and simply hoping and wishing for a China that will forever remain weak or incapable is just a bad bet. If China really wants reunification as an outcome and the West actively tries to suppress and undermine China then a weaker China will have nothing to lose trying again and again to “correct” the Taiwan situation, and will be even more motivated by resentments to boot, and if China does manage to become powerful enough to ignore punishment by the western world then they’re going to move ahead without concerning themselves with what anyone wants. The nature of the balance of power here puts the onus on Taiwan to find a way to get China to change its mind, and while that’s not fair stirring hostilities with China while insisting China’s the one that’s being unreasonable so there’s nothing to consider from China’s perspective accomplishes pretty much nothing if you want to avoid a contest of powers as the way to decide Taiwan’s fate. Sorry for making you the target of this commentary, but some of your posts here really evoke this sort of dynamic that I think is quite counterproductive.
 

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
This "Taiwan policy act" basically seals the deal that at this point an invasion has to happen, the white house is pretending to be less hawkish by delaying it. But really they are just playing good cop bad cop.
The "Taiwan policy act" should be far much bigger news than Pelosi's visit.

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The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is meeting Aug 3. to consider S.4428, the Taiwan policy act of 2022, a bill introduced by committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. In a joint press release, their offices describe the legislation as “the most comprehensive restructuring of U.S. policy towards Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.”

As Menendez and Graham rightly note in their bill, the “security of Taiwan and the ability for the people of Taiwan to determine their own future is fundamental to United States interests and values.”
 
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Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
From the SCS Strategy thread, but more relevant in this thread ....

Aside from all of the above, China right now does not have enough fire power (or at least don't convincingly have enough power) to win conventionally against US + Japan + Taiwan. It would be a huge risk if a war broke out in 2025.
China does indeed have enough strength to defeat Taiwan, even by US reckoning.
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, in 18 war games simulating a fight in Taiwan, the US lost every time. Not only was the mainland able to defeat Taiwanese forces, it was able to overcome the US counterstrike (which presumably included Japan). The PRC won every time.

The question is what happens in the years and decades afterwards. China does not have the conventional means to make the US surrender -- yet. (The US doesn't have the conventional means to force the Middle Kingdom to surrender either.) Will nuclear armageddon happen? Will both China and the US be annihilated? Nobody knows. The uncertainty about the longer run is probably the main military reason holding back AR. Of course, there are moral reasons too -- but every time Tsai opens her mouth, the mainland has less moral reluctance.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
This "Taiwan policy act" basically seals the deal that at this point an invasion has to happen, the white house is pretending to be less hawkish by delaying it. But really they are just playing good cop bad cop.
The "Taiwan policy act" should be far much bigger news than Pelosi's visit.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is meeting Aug 3. to consider S.4428, the Taiwan policy act of 2022, a bill introduced by committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. In a joint oress release, their offices describe the legislation as “the most comprehensive restructuring of U.S. policy towards Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.”

As Menendez and Graham rightly note in their bill, the “security of Taiwan and the ability for the people of Taiwan to determine their own future is fundamental to United States interests and values.”

This definitely 115% trips China's red line and its law articles that mandate for a reunification by force... If this bill passes (as it 100% will) then as a legal instrument it forces China to preemptively attack in accordance to China's own laws... not that China needed any justification anyway.....
 
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