I agree with pretty much everything you said, however, there is still one important question missing. Who would be the leader of China in charge of AR? The reason I ask this is b/c some people suspect that Xi wants to make Taiwan his legacy. If Xi really wanted to make Taiwan his legacy, he could just get his 3rd term, and once the type 003 is operational, China could launch AR by blockading Taiwan. Then, China would get naval and air supremacy and fight off US/Japan. Under this AR, China can only break the 1st island chain and not the rest.
My question to you and everyone else here is do you guys think Xi is really desperate to make Taiwan his legacy that he would go for AR in his 3rd term. Or, in a very unlikely scenario, Xi can get a 3rd and 4th term and launch AR around 2030.
It is less if Xi wants to make it his legacy or not and more about if his sales pitch to the central committee and the legislative includes Taiwan.
Big terms need to be backed up with big promises and succesful results.
People tend to see military resolution as a number crunching game between PLA fighting 100% of ROC fighters, which in the current situation already vastly favors PLA. But in reality, it will likely not be a pure armed reunification and not a pure peaceful reunification either.
Government troops will draw attention for awhile, then volunteer patriots and covert forces within Taiwan will provide the excuse for the PLA to start entering and shooting the ROC fighters who are on Tsai's side.
Based on recent events, I would claim that, China is already 100% prepared for reunification today, but it is waiting for a scenario where destruction to Taiwan will be minimal and where Beijing will be obviously in the right internationally, which means Tsai must fire the first shot somehow.
With Xi generally seen as outplaying Biden in this crisis, it seems inevitable that he has a very strong argument to get a 3rd term. I'd be very surprised if someone else wins the elections.