Ignore the bloody shit- stirrer.
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Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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My take:
These military exercises are only for a show of force. PRC will never use them against ROC.
Xi Jinping has said the reunification will be peaceful. How he is so confident about it?
* Time might be on PRC's side, but space is not (Ukraine conflict, Pakistan regime change etc).
PRC strategists know well about this & they will make sure the ROC space is always on PRC's
clutches.
* PRC claims ROC is inalienable part of it. So PRC will take it back any time she pleases or
when she considers the time has come.
* Means to achieve reunification: total economic blockade, special military operations & the
like - short of civil war.
ROC will be in chaos internally & PRC's entrance of taking over the government will be
created.
* These military exercises are for outside interferences (USA, Japan etc) during/after the
reunification; as for PRC, those interferences will be considered a declaration of war with the
war zone is (directed) on Taiwan - many advantages for PRC considering the location of
Taiwan island.
Warning on Pelosi:
- PRC's system of government is rigid. The differences between officials & non-officials are
made clear.
Journalists from the government "mouthpiece" are not officials. Hence they don't represent
government's stance.
- PRC strategists try to issue warnings as consistent as possible without making room for
contradictories. So the burdens are very heavy for them to analyze, re-analyze the
impacts/any possibilities of blowbacks/etc.
Once the warnings are done (maybe in raw formats), they're transmitted to the
spokespersons. So if there's any confusion/over warnings, the transmission/interpretation is
mostly the problem. Just my 2 cents.
- For some of us, we were carried away by non-officials "wolf warriors" that Pelosi's plane
would be intercepted/shot down. Hence the ruckus of paper tiger & humiliation.
- It may look like the Chinese is gullible & is brainwashed by government propaganda - in
peace time nobody cares as long as the Chinese is described as a peace loving person.
But it would be quite opposite in war time, one can imagine many things from the "tribe"
that invented "death by thousand cuts."
USA doesn't have strategy:
- It's difficult for one to accept this notion. USA was & is the sole super power (we're on
transitional period of multi powers).
US strategists were very rational & any strategies worked well in the past up to the rise of
Russia & PRC - the exception were: North Korea & Iran (Russia & PRC in some forms also
folded).
- When US strategies have started failing one after the other with the rise of Russia (under
Putin) & PRC, most of those strategists have become irrational & their strategies contradict
one another as if there's no strategy.
My question:
The 3rd Taiwan crisis in 1996, is there any evidence that 2 US carriers were passing the Taiwan strait during missile launches.
I saw in Youtube years ago that a PRC colonel refuted this events. He said that the carriers were staying outside the designated areas during the exercises (somewhere eastern part of Taiwan IIRC). I thought the colonel was one of the authors of "Unrestricted War."
These military exercises are only for a show of force. PRC will never use them against ROC.
Xi Jinping has said the reunification will be peaceful. How he is so confident about it?
* Time might be on PRC's side, but space is not (Ukraine conflict, Pakistan regime change etc).
PRC strategists know well about this & they will make sure the ROC space is always on PRC's
clutches.
* PRC claims ROC is inalienable part of it. So PRC will take it back any time she pleases or
when she considers the time has come.
* Means to achieve reunification: total economic blockade, special military operations & the
like - short of civil war.
ROC will be in chaos internally & PRC's entrance of taking over the government will be
created.
* These military exercises are for outside interferences (USA, Japan etc) during/after the
reunification; as for PRC, those interferences will be considered a declaration of war with the
war zone is (directed) on Taiwan - many advantages for PRC considering the location of
Taiwan island.
Warning on Pelosi:
- PRC's system of government is rigid. The differences between officials & non-officials are
made clear.
Journalists from the government "mouthpiece" are not officials. Hence they don't represent
government's stance.
- PRC strategists try to issue warnings as consistent as possible without making room for
contradictories. So the burdens are very heavy for them to analyze, re-analyze the
impacts/any possibilities of blowbacks/etc.
Once the warnings are done (maybe in raw formats), they're transmitted to the
spokespersons. So if there's any confusion/over warnings, the transmission/interpretation is
mostly the problem. Just my 2 cents.
- For some of us, we were carried away by non-officials "wolf warriors" that Pelosi's plane
would be intercepted/shot down. Hence the ruckus of paper tiger & humiliation.
- It may look like the Chinese is gullible & is brainwashed by government propaganda - in
peace time nobody cares as long as the Chinese is described as a peace loving person.
But it would be quite opposite in war time, one can imagine many things from the "tribe"
that invented "death by thousand cuts."
USA doesn't have strategy:
- It's difficult for one to accept this notion. USA was & is the sole super power (we're on
transitional period of multi powers).
US strategists were very rational & any strategies worked well in the past up to the rise of
Russia & PRC - the exception were: North Korea & Iran (Russia & PRC in some forms also
folded).
- When US strategies have started failing one after the other with the rise of Russia (under
Putin) & PRC, most of those strategists have become irrational & their strategies contradict
one another as if there's no strategy.
My question:
The 3rd Taiwan crisis in 1996, is there any evidence that 2 US carriers were passing the Taiwan strait during missile launches.
I saw in Youtube years ago that a PRC colonel refuted this events. He said that the carriers were staying outside the designated areas during the exercises (somewhere eastern part of Taiwan IIRC). I thought the colonel was one of the authors of "Unrestricted War."
I was part of the gang hoping China would shoot down Pelosi's plane
But upon further thinking it seems like China's decision to not do anything was absolutely correct
America tried to goad China into a military confrontation with the US which would paint China as the aggressor, increase american nationalism and support for taiwan independence (+ arms sales).
Instead China did absolutely nothing which left the Americans holding their dicks in their hands, and now the world (exluding the west) views it as American provocation, giving China free rein to advance the status quo to the point of entering Taiwan territorial waters (based on that picture of Heping power station). The only cost was loss of face for a few hours. I think other foreign delegations are probably going to take pause after looking at China's response.
But upon further thinking it seems like China's decision to not do anything was absolutely correct
America tried to goad China into a military confrontation with the US which would paint China as the aggressor, increase american nationalism and support for taiwan independence (+ arms sales).
Instead China did absolutely nothing which left the Americans holding their dicks in their hands, and now the world (exluding the west) views it as American provocation, giving China free rein to advance the status quo to the point of entering Taiwan territorial waters (based on that picture of Heping power station). The only cost was loss of face for a few hours. I think other foreign delegations are probably going to take pause after looking at China's response.
All the more for Taiwan to reunify with China. Then they can get DF missiles for free. And point them at their ex-imperial overlords: Japan and the US.
China is ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan. What will the US do next?
For two days straight, Chinese military officials have been delivering a message of triumph to the public. The exercises with which the People’s Liberation Army is punishing Taiwan for hosting US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi feature “multiple firsts”, they gloated on state television. “Our firepower covers all of Taiwan, and we can strike wherever we want,” said Zhang Junshe, a researcher at the PLA Navy Research Institute. “We got really close to Taiwan. We encircled Taiwan. And we demonstrated that we can effectively stop intervention by foreign forces.” The Pelosi visit to Taipei, the first in 25 years by a Speaker of the House, was designed to demonstrate support for the country in the face of what many in the US believe to be a growing threat of a Chinese invasion. But some in Washington now fear that the visit could have the opposite effect — giving Beijing the chance to demonstrate its capacity for military coercion and leaving Taiwan even more exposed to the expanding rivalry between the two superpowers. Analysts say Beijing wants to use the military exercises to shake Taiwan’s confidence in the sources of its economic and political survival. The potential for an effective blockade threatens the air and shipping routes that support its central role in global technology supply chains. China also wants to raise questions about the will and capability of the US to help defend the island against Chinese aggression.
Gary Roughead, a retired admiral and former chief of US naval operations, says it is clear the Chinese exercises will significantly change the military dynamics in the region. “What it has shown is that Beijing has a plan, because they executed a response that was more dispersed than anything before,” says Roughead. “It is a change in the way that China can now respond to events in and beyond Taiwan. We will look back at this as a step change in how they are going to operate.” Foreign defence experts caution against reading the Chinese military’s simulation of squeezing Taiwan as a straight path to the annexation Beijing has warned it might one day attempt. But they agree that the show of force is a watershed moment in the 73-year-old conflict over the island and more broadly in the balance of power between China and the US. John Culver, a former top CIA official who spent decades studying the PLA, says US-China relations have entered a “new era” following the Chinese exercises that included several unprecedented elements, including shooting a missile that flew over the island for the first time and the effective closure of maritime areas. The Chinese air force also sent a record number of warplanes across the median line in the Taiwan Strait. Some of China’s designated target zones were inside Taiwan’s territorial waters.
“We’re in a new status quo. I don’t see how this ends. It may just be a day or three of military drills around the island but we’re in a new period,” says Culver. “This is going to become their benchmark and they may even do this as routine training.”
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Sorry article is too long to copy, full story here:
Of course this is a political issue, but I am impressed by the ability of the PLAAF to integrate a relatively new aircraft such as Y-20U into what is one of the largest air-sea-rocket force combined exercise operations executed in recent memory.
Like I predicted its far more expedient to send 1 or 2 escorts through the straits after the exercise finishes. 1 CV is not nearly enough show of force by itself, at least if US sends 1 Burke they can say did something, while not escalating tensions too much and they can save face when the escorts inevitably get surrounded because its obvious that they didn't really try to make a show of force.
It is more telling that US overplayed their hand so much that even a platform with so many CIA bots as twitter immediately jumped to accusing US despite such a move logically weakening Taiwan separatist movement.
So whoever did it or if it was natural cause seems irrelevant because people already made suspicions based on US' recent conduct.
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