Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Status
Not open for further replies.
B

Barefoot

New Member
Registered Member
I've seen some talk about whther the USA or its population would be willing to go to war with China over Taiwan.

This lecture touches on opinion polls circa 1940 regarding going to war over the Philippines or Hawaii. Pointing out that the poll asked which countries the US should go to war to defend, then listed said Philippines and Hawaii, which of course were not sovereign countries but part of the USA. Mentions that the average atlas at the time miss-labelled said "countries" ...

If you havnt seen it it is a great short lecture, well worth a watch (i havn't done it justice above)

 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Lokos said:
Because they know at most China will just go on a temper tantrum... the west knows these exercises are just a show with no real bite.
Click to expand...
China is used to useless faux virtue signaling from the West, and China knows these meaningless symbolic visits are just a show with no real bite. So China's salami-slicing is commensurate and appropriate response against Western salami-slicing.
 
T

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Lokos said:
Because they know at most China will just go on a temper tantrum... the west knows these exercises are just a show with no real bite.
Click to expand...
This is looking beyond than a temper tantrum, not even 1996 where this big, this exercises are defacto blockade of that island, this is nightmare fuel for American commanders. Every single of this stupid political stunt crap will just push China towards a permanent blockade, the inevitable destruction of the island infrastructure (Including TSMC fabs because they don't give a damn about those) and a invasion, that will push the global economy towards depression. And there will no way for the Americans will be able to stop that except will a nuclear exchange.​
 
B

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
China is used to useless faux virtue signaling from the West, and China knows these meaningless symbolic visits are just a show with no real bite. So China's salami-slicing is commensurate and appropriate response against Western salami-slicing.
Click to expand...
What did the US win from playing this card?
Absolutely nothing except one week of PR victory and an old woman that can put an extra thing on her legacy.

Strategically the US probably lost way more because flying missiles over and exercising closer to Taiwan will most likely be normalised.

This will make Taiwan a more unstable and unpredictable partner because any moment China could block you for a couple of days.
Taiwan will lose business this way because if there is one thing companies hate its unpredictability of events on their supply lines.
 
A

abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
tankphobia said:
I feel like the narrative of the US being a declining power is way overblown in this thread, the most terrifying thing about the American empire is not its front facing presidents and unending list of problems that people think would sink it, it is the army of cold, calculating strategists behind the scene that sets out the overall geopolitical strokes of the country to dominate both its allies and foes alike. Playing its allies off against its enemy and never having to suffer too high a cost to achieve its aims.

Despite all the efforts of its rivals for the past 200+ years, it has not only endured and prospered, but also remain the most powerful military force for 70 years and counting. We may never get another geopolitical chess master like Eisenhower, but rest assured their foreign department is as shrewd as back in the yesteryears when the US would roll over central America to get cheaper fruit. Now only more subtle in its methods so that they can call on their allies that they will stab in the back, all while they enjoy more popularity than ever in terms of soft power. Nothing the US is currently facing is an existential threat to its existence, neither is any problems that are facing China at the moment.

The chess board is never and will never be fair for China, to become No.1 China will need both hard and soft power, so far in terms of soft power China is heavily dependent on transactions with no lasting allegiance from its clients, its non-interference policy stopping the transfer of culture that makes the US soft power so powerful, ask any Chinese person and they could probably name 100 things from pop-culture that is of American origin, the inverse on the other hand, you'll struggle to get more than Chinese takeaway and Pandas. To replace America China must reform its propaganda arm to spread it's culture around the world, there are a million things that are way more interesting about Chinese art and history that would put the fake qigong and unscientific traditional Chinese medicine cashcow to shame.

If China can convince the peoples of the second and third world that Chinese culture and by extension its government is superior to the Western narrative, it would go a long way towards the aim of displacing the US, no amount of chest thumping and wolf warrior diplomacy is going to achieve that goal any faster.
Click to expand...

Fully agreed. Great analysis.
And also, China first needs to convince it's own people ( Taiwanese, but the rest of China too ) that China can be as good as the US, by having average Chinese living standard at least as good as the anywhere in the First World, by having Chinese Party elite kids studying in Beijing and Shangai- not in US Ivy League, driving Chinese cars, not German, having C919 with Chinese parts, not with foreign etc. etc.
So yes, China has much more noodles to eat...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top