Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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lgnxz

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lych470 said:
Chinese government for following the example of North Korea in wilfully test-firing missiles into waters near other countries, and demands that China exercise self-restraint.
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This should've been done way earlier and more routinely. In fact, given the current political climate and power disparity I think a limited military strike to preferably high value military targets of the ROC can be done with no repercussion. You know, something that's akin to what Israel and many other strong Middle Eastern states have been doing routinely as well against their weaker enemies. Given the miniscule scale compared to actual wutong, and thus doesn't really cross the threshold of actual war/invasion but more like a skirmish, I doubt foreign actors (NATO, Quad, Five Eyes countries) can do much about it. What do you all think?
 
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56860

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NeutralWarrior said:
2 days ago, when China & PLA did not intercept and allowed Pelosi to land as she wished, I was truly disappointed. I was then willing to wait a bit more and try to understand the calculations & strategies at work. Today after analyzing them and understanding the future direction of China, I can only say.. it's a MASTERSTROKE.

To put it simply; US created a trap, passed the hot bucket to China and waited for her to fire the first shot. China strategists then turned it around, passed the same hot bucket to Taiwan and wait for them to fire the first shot, by "shutting the door and teach your son not to mix with bad influencing friends" (it's an Asian thing), in the form of long-term unofficial blockades.

The blockade will squeeze Taiwan into just two scenarios in the future; 1. Fire the first shot and Armed Reunification will commence, 2. Suffer from multi-dimensional blockades and uncertainties for long-term and in the end, persuaded for a Peaceful Reunification.

I am happy now :D

Also, I just found out there's a piece written and published just hours ago that I share the same view with (which gave me the confidence to write this amateur post) and I think it's a good read, here:
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I'm not gonna lie, I did not expect the angle western MSM decided to take on Pelosi's visit... was expecting a lot of mindless Jai Democracy instead of these (somewhat) realistically sobering takes.

The notable lack of opposition to China's missile tests is also a very pleasant surprise. It's almost as if the collective west looked at the PLA playing ping-pong with DF-15s over Taiwan Island and said - yep - completely natural and expected chain of events given the circumstances. This, of course, plays massively in China's favor, who now gets to normalize and benefit from such training.

All in all, American salami slicing is simply no match for Chinese salami slicing.
 
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Petrolicious88

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sheogorath said:
If the median line effectively disappears from now on and Taiwan doesn't or won't react, it is a change of the status quo. It means it will be harder for Taiwan to tell when an actual attack might be happening or if its just another drill.
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There are no elements of surprise when it comes to attacking Taiwan (at least when it comes to unification). Massive of troops will be detected in advance. Only a few beaches where Chinese troops can land, and they are all fortified. Only a few months of the year where amphibious style crossing is possible.
 
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lgnxz

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Petrolicious88 said:
I personally don’t think these drills will amount to much.

Missile drills, some flight/ship incursions, and that will be that. Taiwanese are desensitized to these as they happen 12 times a year. It’s not going to change the status quo. Things will calm down after this weekend again.
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The ball is thus ofc on the PLA's side to *not* maintain the status quo. Exercises that cross the "median line" are very rare, let alone within "territorial water of taiwan", despite of the typical jargon from the CPC of not recognizing any of these. The same can be said to the NK style of routine missile launch into the sea.

And hey, if you think that the taiwanese are already desensitized about it, then that's good for us. Why haven't the PLA done any of those if that's the case. Practice makes perfect, the russian has done massive yearly exercise in February for the ukraine invasion many times, yet they still have a lot of hitches particularly at the start of the attack, the most crucial time. One of the benefit of doing such exercises is also for depleting the limited ROC military assets due to the increased workload and lack of budgets.
 
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Abominable

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Well if the objective was to prevent a senior western politician from visiting Taiwan, I think that will have been achieved. I'm sure America will veto the British delegation that's supposed to be visiting later in the year. It will also cause a lot of instability in Taiwan as Tsai will be asked why she approved of the visit.

The thing I'm wondering, is that making the most of America's blunder? Taiwan is supposed to have 60 days of oil and gas reserves. I suspect they'd been dipping into it because of high oil prices right now, maybe they only have a months worth of supplies?

Back in 2014, Ukraine was weak. Russia could have taken the whole country much easier than now. What happens if Taiwan now use the next few years to properly militarise and try to make themselves embargo proof?
 
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