Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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PiSigma

PiSigma

"the engineer"
Holy crap, I disappear for a few days and anew thread got 300+ pages!

I obviously didn't read 99.9% of previous posts, bit did people really think China was going to start ww3 of a old hag 90% in the grave?

And the most important question, since there has been so many posts so fast, was loveleenkr able to emoji all of them?
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
HereToSeePics said:
Or perhaps GT and the other Chinese state commentators needed to convince everyone that China was planning to shoot down Nancy's plane to make a play similar to the rejection-then-retreat technique from psychology that's often found in sales:

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On the state and diplomatic level, people are relieved the "worse case" outcome didn't occur and retreated to what is perceived as a lower cost settlement: giving China a pass to conduct military drills off the island's near coast that would have been unthinkable months ago - no diplomatic protests, no sanctions, no threats of sending USN carrier groups to defend Taiwan, etc. Had China managed to diplomatically call off Pelosi's flight, they would had a minor diplomatic win. But now, they managed to set a precedence that allows them to change the territorial status quo in a strategic way. (Page is from Cialdini btw, highly recommended reading).

For those of us in the financial markets and watching FX/Bond moves on Monday/Tuesday, we would have seen a massive spike up in US Bond rates as China's central bank frantically sold off US Treasuries(lowering price, therefore driving up yield) and a signifiant weakening of USD as they "dumped" USD after seeing what was done to Russia. But we saw no major deviations in both UST and FX rates, meaning China's central bank was not preparing for any "fireworks"


UST 3M rates - essentially flat.
View attachment 94840


USDCNY:
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So it seems to me that a very sophisticated understanding of politics now reduces down to: 1. Haggle like a small time shopkeeper 2. Trash talk like a teenager

Does this mean Trump is the true stable genius after all?
 
9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
jwnz said:

Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Left a Fuming White House Scrambling for a Plan​

  • Administration aimed to quietly persuade delay of Taiwan visit
  • Officials raced to ensure any fallout could be minimized
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As others have said, Biden could have put a stop to this, this trip was greenlit at the highest level of USGov... This article reads like the narrative response they were going to go with if China didnt fall for the bait... I bet they also already had stories written opposite of this ready to go had Pelosi been shot down....
 
M

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
Patchwork_Chimera said:
Or, perhaps, the United States Government isn't quite as put together as you seem to think they are lol. If you ever end up doing work for them on a regular basis, you're in for quite the culture shock lol. Everything's pretty much held together by duct tape and plasticized explosives. Massive lapses in coordination and judgement not only can happen, but *do* happen. Frequently, in fact. Not at this scale or anything, but the typical human-nature-driven office nonsense doesn't just go away because your paycheck requires you to sell both body *and* soul this time.
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Lol…. Is that true? you got to be joking. Planning coups take a lot of preparation and work, and the US plans a lot of them in conjunction with western media. Doesn’t that Take a higher level of coordination?
 
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