Case in point, Russia for example had far better PR than China before the Ukraine war happened, yet the West basically shut them down and sanctioned them to hell and back (let alone the omnipresent sanctions against Iran), so prioritizing something that's dependent on western media channels is just a really stupid approach. The most important thing is building one's strength to decisively change the outcomes on the ground. The media aspect of that would include underpromising and overdelivering as part of that process, both for the domestic audience and undecided third parties.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Case in point, Russia for example had far better PR than China before the Ukraine war happened, yet the West basically shut them down and sanctioned them to hell and back (let alone the omnipresent sanctions against Iran), so prioritizing something that's dependent on western media channels is just a really stupid approach. The most important thing is building one's strength to decisively change the outcomes on the ground. The media aspect of that would include underpromising and overdelivering as part of that process, both for the domestic audience and undecided third parties.
The number of planes flying around the Taiwan region right now is significantly lower than before.
Notice the emptiness of the Taiwan Strait. The only planes that are flying above the strait itself at the current moment are either domestic Taiwanese flights flying intra-island/intra-city routes, or international flights departing from/heading to Taiwan.
All international flights that would only bypass the region are avoiding the immediate areas around Taiwan by flying further east.
All domestic Chinese flights in the region are flying over-land along China's coastline, avoiding the strait.
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l
Cialdini?
I’d say it’s better to take the win with flyovers pushing the boundaries and leave it as that.
What would China be willing to escalate to if the drone landed and got captured or the act of landing pushed someone on the ROC side to shoot it down?
It’s along the lines of why intercept SPAR19 if you are not willing to escalate to forcing it aside or shooting it down?
I get it that in the face of US salami slicing the One-China policy, China is doing it’s own salami slicing of asserting that Taiwan as a province of China has no sovereign space/rights.
But the narrative and who controls it is all important … easy to spin it as USA action as peace/democracy and China’s action as warmongering. As many have mentioned, it is likely that the self-titled “Rest of the World” will soon start taking turns to poke the Dragon by sending their own diplomats to visit Taiwan. Repeat the Pelosi scenario again ad infinitum.
Where does China go from there then?
The current scenario comes at no cost whatsoever to the actual trouble makers. Very easy for any 2 bit country thereafter to do me too visits (cue Lithuania) since if China reacts similarly, it’ll be no cost to them too.
Keep allowing those diplomats to land = tacitly enforcing the opinion that Taiwan is a sovereign state.
Keep repeatedly conducting wargames and flyovers will be spun as “harassment” and give support to outright push for Taiwan to be protected and to be an independent state in the UN sometime this year or next?
Will China go into a shooting war then (in the next 1 to 2 years) if it doesn’t want to now?
Ultimately, the One-China stance from the west is really an unabashedly two-faced admission that $$$ is more important than Taiwan and “Democracy”.
Why only punish Taiwan for a belligerent action by the US?
Why not punish the US in the one thing that draws them into the One China policy to start with?
China has been remarkably calm in the face of the last few years of trade war from the US.
Isn’t it time to weaponise their trade and supply and hit the US in that arena as a warning to anyone thinking of doing a me-too? That way, any nation thinking of jumping on the poke the Dragon bandwagon will have to think twice about the cost in sanctions and trade. A short few months disruption in supply of iPhones, amongst other things, will quickly have industry lobbyist and consumers storming Capitol hill again?
Sure, it’ll lend credence to the “decouple from China” camp but I’d say that ship has already sailed. If not, it will literally fly out of the port the moment China does a hostile takeover of Taiwan. A shooting war of any kind will immediately decouple China ... so why the reticence to get the toe wet on the economic war?
The only endgame that is win-win for China is a peaceful assimilation of Taiwan … but the current scenario doesn’t promote that at all.
Europe and ASEAN's leaders need to understand that "provocative actions" have already occured, and the responsibility of de-escalation lies solely on the perpetrators of said actions.
Have the exercises started yet?
Did this get reported yet:
2022-08-04 08:28:23Xinhua Editor : Li Yan
Yang Chih-yuan, a Taiwan resident suspected of engaging in separatist activities and endangering national security, was detained by the national security organ of Wenzhou, east China's Zhejiang Province on Wednesday.
Yang, born in Taichung in 1990, has long been advocating "Taiwan independence," and colluded with others to establish an illegal organization with the aim to "push for Taiwan to become a sovereign state and join the United Nations."
Having planned and carried out separatist activities for "Taiwan independence," Yang is suspected of crimes of splitting the country and inciting others to do so.
The national security organs will leverage legal weapons such as the Anti-Secession Law and the National Security Law to punish the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces in accordance with the law for their attempts to seek "Taiwan independence," resist reunification and undermine peace, said a national security official.
2022-08-04 08:28:23Xinhua Editor : Li Yan
Yang Chih-yuan, a Taiwan resident suspected of engaging in separatist activities and endangering national security, was detained by the national security organ of Wenzhou, east China's Zhejiang Province on Wednesday.
Yang, born in Taichung in 1990, has long been advocating "Taiwan independence," and colluded with others to establish an illegal organization with the aim to "push for Taiwan to become a sovereign state and join the United Nations."
Having planned and carried out separatist activities for "Taiwan independence," Yang is suspected of crimes of splitting the country and inciting others to do so.
The national security organs will leverage legal weapons such as the Anti-Secession Law and the National Security Law to punish the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces in accordance with the law for their attempts to seek "Taiwan independence," resist reunification and undermine peace, said a national security official.
10 minutes remaining.
Why would anyone from Taiwan do this on the mainland? Sounds as stupid as Indira Ghandi having Sikh bodyguards after desecrating the Golden Temple.
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