Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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Bob Smith

Junior Member
Registered Member
Polls are all over the place and unreliable. One poll shows a 34 point lead for Truss. Another poll shows a 5 point lead for Truss. That was within the last week.
Betting sites have Truss at 90% chance of winning. There's always that 10% chance that Sunak will win but I wouldn't count on it. Also, would be really hard to see the Conservative Party elect a brown leader despite what they say about how proud they are of their diversity.
 

lolrus

New Member
Registered Member
Do you really think after all these nothing will happen? why is everybody so eager for ww3 on this forum?
Its not this forum. China couldn't care less about a foreign based English forum talking about China. Its the massive domestic audience on weibo, and other Chinese social media that is expressing their disappointment to the point that it is now the top trending topic.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Putin no longer had a choice, the war in Ukraine was inevitable. No matter how much the Western mainstream media repeats that Putin has started unprovoked aggression and war, these are lies.

Many people, for whom the events of February 24 were a surprise, for some reason forget April 2021, when Ukraine had already formed military forces to strike at Donbas in violation of the Minsk agreements. In response, Russian troops were deployed along the border. For some reason the war didn't start in April 2021. At that time the US was in the epicenter with covid-19 and probably postponed the proxy war in Ukraine until next year. History repeated itself in late 2021. Zelensky concentrated an even larger army on the Donbas front - 120,000 - 150,000. Russia's armed forces also had to transfer more serious forces to the border in an attempt to deter Zelensky from attacking the two republics in Donbass.

Putin's negotiations and ultimatums with the "president of the world" Zelensky and his Western curators did not yield results, they needed a conflict. A clear example of this is the statements of the West, even before Russia invaded Ukraine, that sanctions would be imposed on Russia if Putin did not withdraw Russian troops from the Russian border.

Zelensky was determined to invade Donbas and eliminate the pro-Russian "Colorado beetles" once and for all, in clear violation of the Minsk agreements.

If Russian troops were withdrawn in the winter of 2021/2022, there would be an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the two republics, following the example of Operation Storm, conducted by the Croatia and NATO against Srpska Krajina in 1995. If Russia does not had intervened, then the Donbas republics would not have had a chance to oppose it. And then there would inevitably be a similar scenario for Crimea.

The head of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Pushilin already on February 16 began the evacuation of children, civilians and the elderly to Russia, because the two Donbas republics expect the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack them.

The former president of Ukraine, Poroshenko recently admitted that neither he nor Zelensky had any intention of implementing the Minsk agreements, but only signed them to buy time to arm and train an army to "take back" Crimea and Donbas . Well, yes - but in Crimea 95% of the population is Russian and they do not want to return to Ukraine. In the republics of Donbass, the majority are Russians and were subjected to 8 years of terror because they do not want to Ukrainianize themselves and glorify the Nazi Stepan Bandera as a national hero.

And what are the Minsk agreements - for Ukraine to stop terrorizing the Russian population in Donbas and let them live with Russian cultural differences. The "separatists" just wanted to live peacefully, without banning their Russian language, culture and ethnic identity. But no - Poroshenko's regime and then Zelensky's for 8 years terrorized and massacred the population in Donbas with the help of Nazi battalions, and finally decided to attack the two republics and Ukrainianize them by force.

And all this is confirmed by Macron's phone conversation with Putin, on February 20, or 4 days before Russia invaded Ukraine. This conversation was reported two months ago by the national French media, in which Macron tells Putin that he called Zelensky, and I quote "to calm down the armed forces" and "Donbass has been under intense bombardment by the Ukrainian Air Force in recent days." Macron also tells Putin not to give in to Zelensky's provocations and asks Putin to withdraw Russian troops from the border. That is, Putin should allow Zelensky to invade the republics and terrorize the Russian Donbass.

Two days after that phone conversation with Macron, on February 22, Putin declared the Minsk agreements "dead" through the fault of Zelensky and Ukraine. On the same date, February 22, Putin also signed two decrees recognizing the two republics of the DPR and the LPR. On February 24, Russian troops invaded Ukraine to protect the two republics.

In the conversation with Macron, Putin also emphasized that only a few days ago, Zelensky announced to the world community the desire of Ukraine to acquire nuclear weapons, as well as the reluctance and firm refusal of NATO to discuss with Russia the architecture of the common European security.

Therefore, those who pick up on the propaganda thesis that Russia launched the special military operation for no reason either do not understand the background of the events and are disoriented, or they are simply deliberately lying. Starting the war was an inevitable step that the US and its puppet Zelensky deliberately provoked Russia to take.
Such is the nature of propaganda. It will make you hate the oppressed and love the oppressor.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
I think after this visit by Nancy, very likely that Chine will increase defense spending into double digits again and ramping up production of ICBM and nukes like no tomorrow, and also you will see building SSN and SSBN will get accelerated significantly

double digits increase of defense spending now is much different than in early 2000s, 10% increase now is like ~$25B or almost 3x of existing Taiwanese defense spending. And there is possibility the increase even to 15%
 

el pueblo unido

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not sure why you expect ww3 is needed to quell domestic audience dissatisfaction.
It seems to me the domestic dissatisfaction is solely due to not shooting down a certain plane carrying a US congress member or the inaction of the PLAAF, which, let's be honest, was never on the table in the first place besides some republican right wingers'fantacy. what troubles me the most is why everyone on the so-called flagship china watching forum would still consider it legitimacy, the consequences promised will come, this is not a reality TV show
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Natural sand with high metallic content is exempt from the ban. So be careful. Or maybe your sand is actually artificial.

Most of natural sand exported to Taiwan is used in construction. This is not about semiconductor. China banned natural sand export for environmental reasons, Taiwan cried that it's too dependant on mainland import so China made an exception for Taiwan with the understanding that Taiwan would gradually diversify its imports.

Interesting that actually in 2020, China exported "Sand" worth $81M and also Imported "Sand" worth $244M .... so 3x import than export
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I think China used sand (by dredging sea floor) during the build up of artificial islands in Spratly and Paracel
 

nemo

Junior Member
Who says? Why wouldn't old people just get crappy pensions?
Because of one child policy and saving is insufficient for current living standards. One child policy means one family may need to support 2 sets of parents. And retired people had low salary base when they were working so the saving may be insufficient now. Without this you may have social upheaval and stressed middle class that will decrease higher end consumptions.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
It seems to me the domestic dissatisfaction is solely due to not shooting down a certain plane carrying a US congress member or the inaction of the PLAAF, which, let's be honest, was never on the table in the first place besides some republican right wingers'fantacy. what troubles me the most is why everyone on the so-called flagship china watching forum would still consider it legitimacy, the consequences promised will come, this is not a reality TV show

We wouldn't have if it weren't for a certain barking dog with supposed government connection and endless saber rattling from official channels.
 
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