Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

Status
Not open for further replies.

xlitter

Junior Member
Registered Member
What is surprising is that Chinese government couldn't even be bothered with plane interdiction to at least show some mettle that the sort of propaganda tactic and salami slicing conducted by the U.S. won't be tolerated and there's a limit to their provocative actions.
On the other hand, it shows that she doesn't want to intercept at all. If Pelosi is not allowed to land in Taiwan, how can it arouse the anger of the Chinese people and mobilize people's hearts. The National People's Congress and the CPPCC have made it clear.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
what happens if us navy decides to escort uk delegation in autumn? does china take the L again in order not to get the americans involved?
china should have never taken the bait, now there's no more ambiguity: as of now, china won't engage the americans, they have found out and they'll push things as they see fit, imposing their timeline.
for all we know, the us could wait a couple of months and then embolden the dpp to declare independence. Sure, that's the red line for AR, but if they publicly reiterate that they'll stand by taiwan, what will china do, attack? and risk involving the americans?
today's events show that china is not ready or willing to fight the americans. Maybe that was common knowledge, I don't know, I'm just saying that there was some sort of ambiguity before, and now there's no more, to china's detriment
What's even worse is that the US did not even put on a show of force. They sent a handful of F-15s and an AWAC. They didn't raise DefCon, didn't emergency steam ships from Guam or Pearl, didn't empty the Reagan with multiple F-18 squadrons in the air, didn't raise strategic command alert levels, didn't do anything that indicates they took things seriously.

They mobilized more for some North Korean axe psycho in the 70s.

This shows US didn't even take China as seriously as North Korea and a minimal show of force was enough.
 

clockwork

Junior Member
Registered Member
what happens if us navy decides to escort uk delegation in autumn? does china take the L again in order not to get the americans involved?
china should have never taken the bait, now there's no more ambiguity: as of now, china won't engage the americans, they have found out and they'll push things as they see fit, imposing their timeline.
for all we know, the us could wait a couple of months and then embolden the dpp to declare independence. Sure, that's the red line for AR, but if they publicly reiterate that they'll stand by taiwan, what will china do, attack? and risk involving the americans?
today's events show that china is not ready or willing to fight the americans. Maybe that was common knowledge, I don't know, I'm just saying that there was some sort of ambiguity before, and now there's no more, to china's detriment
It doesn't matter who escorts them, SAMs and AAMs can target the aircraft in the middle. If not they can be struck after landing.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Am I the guy who invented the “self immolation” statement which came from Xi himself?
Ppl being fooled by America's as usual premature victory lap.

The Military are going to send a lot of platforms, very close to Taiwan. A major show of force with 2 aircraft carriers. Even assuming worst case that nothing in the way of military operation happens, they basically normalize government forces practically hugging Taiwan now.

If the crisis ends with China gaining physical ground right after Pelosi leaves, its a complete rout for America and their bragging today just ends up looking idiotic.

Remember how in the third straits crisis, ages ago, US overall won in the end by sending aircraft carriers only after Beijing finished all their moves.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
In summary:

US won a gigantic propaganda victory. China was defeated in the propaganda war.

No amount of exercises short of a nuclear test, interception of an SLBM or GEO ASAT, would repair the damage. China has failed to demonstrate sufficient resolve to even attempt to deter the flight. It must demonstrate at least the capability to inflict damage on hostiles otherwise even Lithuania will become emboldened. Capability is necessary but insufficient, but lacking resolve means even capability gets called into question.
So, the United States has raised the stakes, then China itself will raise the stakes.

China was realistically never going to shoot down the plane and stubborn Pelosi was always going to visit Taiwan because she really does not give a damn about damaging US China relations and is much more interested in political virtue signaling. Showing that one has stood up to "Communist China for Democratic Freedom Loving Taiwan" plays very well to most American audiences.

This is a long war, and the United States just fired the first shot of the long war. A single shot does not win a war. China can and will retaliate in many different ways of its choosing.
 

KevinG

New Member
Registered Member
Another theory: Maybe Chinese government want Pelosi to go to Taiwan because objectively speaking, CN gov incentivized this outcome
I kind of agree, within China, people are more and more unsatisfied with the unreasonable COVID-related restrictions and downwards economy. Now US is the bad. Either Pelosi lands or not, CCP can use it to manipulate the public, just by different angles.
 

dasCKD

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not gonna lie, this is a pretty lackluster promotional video lol. Just a bunch of extremely underexposed, poorly lit shots of things... going forwards.
Honestly the entire Chinese propaganda staff should really just undergo a massive audit to cut the fat and bring in some new, competant blood. Never mind Russia, the Chinese propaganda wing would be lackluster even compared to Qatar's.
I kind of agree, within China, people are more and more unsatisfied with the unreasonable COVID-related restrictions and downwards economy. Now US is the bad. Either Pelosi lands or not, CCP can use it to manipulate the public, just by different angles.
If that is the CCP's angle, this just seems like a really bad play. If they want their people to forget about the COVID restrictions and domestic issues, showing a strong and assertive hand in this crisis should be what they do. Quite frankly, unless they somehow manage to salvage a PR win from this by either sailing one of their destroyers up to the American carriers or by sailing their fleet within a stone's throw of Taiwan, this is a PR loss for China both on the world stage and in the domestic sphere.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top