FFG 054/054A Thread

[zyun8288]

Sorry Golly, I have to be frank.

On the couple of forums I take part in, I generally disagree with 2 types of opinions: Extremely pessmistic about China, like yours, OR Extremely optimistic about china, like Roger604.

But I do appreciate your efforts; At least we can see the yard sticks provided by you guys, and we can relatively easy to find the balance point where truth is more likely to be found.

 

[Gollevainen]

Im not pessimistic, Im objective, and to be objective, you have to suspect everything and meassure all alternatives against each others, negatives as well as positive. Not go to the path where "if something can be this way, it can be that way also". Im same against all nations and all armies, not against China solely. I begun to take it rather offensive when people constantly claim that when Im conducting this doctrine of mine, Im somehow "anti-china" or hating china. If I would hate or dislike chinese things, I wouldnt be moderator in here

Pictures like these, with no level or standard of detail cannot descripe them, no matter if it drawn by authenthic friction or fanboy. Im not denying that it would (or could; yet not should ) descripe new version of 054 family, but only wondering what sort of logic one has to have, when he starts to see detailed sections like sensors and weapons out of such generally innaccurate picture.

If I would use that sort of logic, I would promptly declair that Chinese have managed to make a copy or derivate of OTO melara's 76mm Superrapido/Compat gun family, As of all details of that particular picture, the one that is most clear is the fact that the main gun resambles quite much Of the Italian gun, with its shape, and by the distingtive "hook" under the tube. And to tie that statement to out-of-hat facts, we all know that chinese have allready done reworked version of the same company's 40mm twin gun wich Italian Navy used in compination with the 76mm So that must mean that the next chinese Ships are armed with the OTO clone.

But I wont, naturally make any such bold statement before I would see such thing from undisputed image.

Safest thing that I dare to say that this might be an illustration of possiple design which china has to offer to export markets (hence the OTO gun and VLS just for principle, customers need say what goes in) nowadays. We have seen similar type of drawings and models of ships that only vaguelly resambles something that is being actually fielded.

 

[Kongo]

Bravo. As the saying goes, even a spoilt clock is right 2 times a day. It matters not so much that one is right, but how one derives a conclusion from the facts at hand. Gollevainen rightly concludes that one simply cannot derive anything from this picture. It may be used as supporting evidence in future, but alone it proves nothing.

 

[crobato]

Well dont get exited about the radar yet, That model is drawn in such general inaccurace that it can easily trying to resamble the same planar set than in 054A. In overal the drawing could be some artist redentition of 054A, as show model of current chinese naval ships in general, and not to mark as anything more spesific than lets say, background image for some naval missile's expo showcase.

I must confess that I cannot do anything more than amusingly wonder your guys ability to drawn so long way conclusions out of obscurities like that.

How can this model and its radar---made from the same shipyard and company that made the 054s and who also produced those models for the 054 be generally "inaccurate" when the last time, the 054A models were more than sharp enough to deduce that that the radar on the 054A would look like Fregats. There can be no mistake if the radar would look like the Fregats or not and certainly the 054A models more than showed that.

The real information worth knowing if the model comes from a legitimate source, and so far all the info is pointing to that direction.

 

[crobato]

Bravo. As the saying goes, even a spoilt clock is right 2 times a day. It matters not so much that one is right, but how one derives a conclusion from the facts at hand. Gollevainen rightly concludes that one simply cannot derive anything from this picture. It may be used as supporting evidence in future, but alone it proves nothing.

So far models of things that have been previously been shown have been very accurate when it comes to fruition. LOL even the model of the Yuan were long shown even before people would eventually knew and get confirmed that there was a Yuan class submarine. I can remember the time when the model of the 054A was dismissive because of the VLS shown, when the makers of the Shtil-1, Almaz, has yet to put its own VLS into a solid reality or working prototype and when the details of Almaz' own system don't match of the 054A model.

If the image is coming from a legitimate source then it deserves some serious consideration.

 

[Gollevainen]

Oh excuse me, how can this model and its radar---made from the same shipyard and company that made the 054s and who also produced those models for the 054 be generally "inaccurate" when the last time, the 054A models were more than sharp enough to deduce that that the radar on the 054A would look like Fregats. There can be no mistake if the radar would look like the Fregats or not and certainly the 054A models more than showed that.

This image is hardly comparable to those models of 054A in the past. Its CGI pic which context isen't know other than its from MarineTech China exhibition and its provided to us by the same guy who provides us alot of pics in general as well. (also some not so fine ones, like trying to sell Vodopods as a new chinese ASW missiles and so on)

Now that doesen't give much to assume about. Everyone is ofcourse free to do it, but don't be upsetted if others points out the holes in their reasoning. All that I've done is poiting out how fargoing some of them have been. In general I think we should consider the old saying: If you hear galloping, don't expect that there's Zephras comming, when it most likely is just horses.

 

[zyun8288]

Golly, maybe you have not realised, but your actual atitude is that there's nothing until the horse bumps into you.

I believe most people have no problem in accepting negative views, as long as the negative view comes after analysis, rather than before analysis. Hope you know what I mean.

 

[Schumacher]

Is this the same source of the Vodopods photo ?
Bottom line really is the reliability of the source isn't it ? If it's reliable, then of course discussions can be based on it even if it's only a CGI.

 

[crobato]

This image is hardly comparable to those models of 054A in the past. Its CGI pic which context isen't know other than its from MarineTech China exhibition and its provided to us by the same guy who provides us alot of pics in general as well. (also some not so fine ones, like trying to sell Vodopods as a new chinese ASW missiles and so on)

Coming from the Marintech exhibition already covers some weight because it verifies that this is not a fan drawing.

The Vodapod issue is still up in the air, maybe HSH brought up that picture to illustrate his point.

Now that doesen't give much to assume about. Everyone is ofcourse free to do it, but don't be upsetted if others points out the holes in their reasoning. All that I've done is poiting out how fargoing some of them have been. In general I think we should consider the old saying: If you hear galloping, don't expect that there's Zephras comming, when it most likely is just horses.

The gun turret can be anything, its hard to make assumptions on the turret based on the way it looks.

The design may also be an export variant of the 054A rather than the 054B, that's also a real possibility.

On the radar, we do expect that the new phase array that we have seen on top of the radar institute and tested on the 891 is going to end up in a ship sooner or later and other reports are saying that the Fregat like thingie on top of the 054A isn't something you would expect to be part of future PLAN ships in the long run. Remember that ships in the PLAN are ongoing development projects---they produce a small series of ships, then improve on the next batch later, gradually and continually evolving.

 

[zyun8288]

yes, this is the same source of that Russian torpedo picture. But, as far as I know, he NEVER said this is a chinese torpedo. It's only after several rounds of whispers then it became a chinese torpedo.

In fact, this guy is a relatively low key fellow (well considering the number of tea times he had spent with the national security guys, it's understandable). He's main activities are taking photoes of ships around ShangHai area. My feeling is that actually he is not directly associated with the ship building industry. But he does know others who knows what ships are being built and when to be launched so that he can go and take some photoes.

That's why I trust his pictures on ships in ShangHai (all sorts of ships, ranging from fishing boats to destroyers). Anything else, I tend to check other people's views. For pictures of ShangHai, he's the man.

I don't easily ignore anyone's words or pictures. No one's 100% correct or 100% wrong. Even Pinkov, I pay attension to his Russian stories, espeicially the ones with names and time.