F-35 Joint Strike Fighter News, Videos and pics Thread

[thunderchief]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

They F-35 prices are coming down.

Price of F-35 will come down , eventually . But , like any new invention and new technology , stealth fighter will pass trough 3 phases ( same thing happened to TV , computers , cars , locomotives , piston aircraft etc ... )

1. Exclusive technology , very few could afford it , high prices .

2. More common technology , medium prices , broader circle of customers could afford it .

3. Technology known to everyone interested , low prices , available to every interested party .

Stealth fighters we know today would eventually move from phase 1 to phase 3 , just like Mach 2 interceptors that were top edge technology in 50's are now available even to Third World countries (think Mig-21 and F-5 ) . But , you need to understand that party selling some product has vested interest to keep it in exclusive phase as long as they can . Reason for that is simple - it is better to produce 1 F-35 and earn $100 million , then to produce 2 or 4 and to earn same sum . Therefore , Lockheed Martin will try to keep prices high and production relatively slow in next couple of years as we can see from first contracts . Only when competition appears they will increase production and reduce prices in order to stay in market .

 

[Air Force Brat]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

Price of F-35 will come down , eventually . But , like any new invention and new technology , stealth fighter will pass trough 3 phases ( same thing happened to TV , computers , cars , locomotives , piston aircraft etc ... )

1. Exclusive technology , very few could afford it , high prices .

2. More common technology , medium prices , broader circle of customers could afford it .

3. Technology known to everyone interested , low prices , available to every interested party .

Stealth fighters we know today would eventually move from phase 1 to phase 3 , just like Mach 2 interceptors that were top edge technology in 50's are now available even to Third World countries (think Mig-21 and F-5 ) . But , you need to understand that party selling some product has vested interest to keep it in exclusive phase as long as they can . Reason for that is simple - it is better to produce 1 F-35 and earn $100 million , then to produce 2 or 4 and to earn same sum . Therefore , Lockheed Martin will try to keep prices high and production relatively slow in next couple of years as we can see from first contracts . Only when competition appears they will increase production and reduce prices in order to stay in market .

So go buy yourself a Mig-21, there are a couple for sale here in the states for under 100K, these are not refrigerators chief, maybe you should go try to buy an older Ferrari or a 67 Big Block Corvette Stingray, you will find them considerable higher than the Mig, Stealth Technology is difficult to implement in a cohesive and effective manner, it is quite unlikely that anyone will duplicate the F-22 anytime soon, the F-35 will be available to our partners for a reasonable investment in their freedom and sovereignty, and at this juncture, with the economies of some of our "friends" also tanking, it is most unlikely that they will make the gains in stealth technology that they had anticipated even six months ago, propelling the ThunderHogge II to the head of the class, oh and Happy Thanksgiving, come on by and we'll share our Turkey and Dressing, while we still can,,,,,,,,,,

 

[Cheng]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

The main problem is software integration, and the F-22's avionics is very difficult to program and develop for. Increment 3.2 is extremely expensive (it's $8 billion dollars to attempt to integrate advanced SDB functionality, AIM-9X, AIM-120D, and MADL), and they've already dropped the helmet sight due to technical challenges.

Given the timeframe when the F-22 was designed, I expect that the hardware and software wasn't designed around a Service-oriented architecture.

If there are 100 subsystems that require integration, its the difference between having 100 interfaces or a potential nightmare of 5000 interfaces.

And they all need testing.

 

[Cheng]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

Price of F-35 will come down , eventually . But , like any new invention and new technology , stealth fighter will pass trough 3 phases ( same thing happened to TV , computers , cars , locomotives , piston aircraft etc ... )

1. Exclusive technology , very few could afford it , high prices .

2. More common technology , medium prices , broader circle of customers could afford it .

3. Technology known to everyone interested , low prices , available to every interested party .

Stealth fighters we know today would eventually move from phase 1 to phase 3 , just like Mach 2 interceptors that were top edge technology in 50's are now available even to Third World countries (think Mig-21 and F-5 ) . But , you need to understand that party selling some product has vested interest to keep it in exclusive phase as long as they can . Reason for that is simple - it is better to produce 1 F-35 and earn $100 million , then to produce 2 or 4 and to earn same sum . Therefore , Lockheed Martin will try to keep prices high and production relatively slow in next couple of years as we can see from first contracts . Only when competition appears they will increase production and reduce prices in order to stay in market .

The comparison of the F-35 with civilian products doesn't really work.

In the commercial world, there are lots of companies competing on quality, features and cost.
This can drive volumes from 100 to 1million per year.
At the same time, the price of a product can easily drop by 50% or 90%.

There is no way the F-35 programme can go from 100 to 1million per year.
There isn't even enough world demand for even 1000 planes per year.

We're also ignoring the fact that the F-35 programme is a monopoly with only 1 manufacturer so it is not in their interest to reduce prices.
And the only realistic equivalent is the Shenyang J-31 which is still at least 5 years away.
As this is a military purchase, there will be many countries where the only option will be the F-35.

===

In terms cost reduction in the F-35 programme, they are celebrating cost reductions of 3%, which is achieved from less waste and less overcharging/corruption.

If they keep doing that, I think they can get the cost down by at least 20%.

This is just in the nature of for-profit military programmes in the world.

 

[thunderchief]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

So go buy yourself a Mig-21, there are a couple for sale here in the states for under 100K, these are not refrigerators chief, maybe you should go try to buy an older Ferrari or a 67 Big Block Corvette Stingray, you will find them considerable higher than the Mig

Compare the price of Mig-21 or let's say F-104 when they were in their prime (adjusted for inflation of course ) and today . Same thing would happen to F-35 , only gradually . Old Ferrari is collector item so different rules apply . Yet , you could buy new car , faster and more safe , for the fraction of the cost . Technology that made some car great and exclusive back in the days is now widely available.

, Stealth Technology is difficult to implement in a cohesive and effective manner, it is quite unlikely that anyone will duplicate the F-22 anytime soon, the F-35 will be available to our partners for a reasonable investment in their freedom and sovereignty, and at this juncture, with the economies of some of our "friends" also tanking, it is most unlikely that they will make the gains in stealth technology that they had anticipated even six months ago, propelling the ThunderHogge II to the head of the class, oh and Happy Thanksgiving, come on by and we'll share our Turkey and Dressing, while we still can,,,,,,,,,,

5-10 years from now , F-22 and F-35 will start to get competition . First it would be PAK FA , then J-20 , J-31 , Japanese are developing something , Indians also etc ... Countries buying F-35 now , and in next 10 years , will be in an exclusive club but they will pay hefty sum for that . I don't think price of the F-35 will come down below $100 million (in today's dollars ) until 2025 , if we exclude accounting gimmicks (separate sale of spares , weapons , tools , training etc... )

The comparison of the F-35 with civilian products doesn't really work.
In the commercial world, there are lots of companies competing on quality, features and cost.
This can drive volumes from 100 to 1million per year.
At the same time, the price of a product can easily drop by 50% or 90%.

There is no way the F-35 programme can go from 100 to 1million per year.
There isn't even enough world demand for even 1000 planes per year.

There will be competition , don't worry I'm willing to bet that price of F-35 50 years from now would be $10 million or below (adjusted for inflation ) . Of course , by that time they would be obsolete like Mig-21 today

 

[Air Force Brat]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

5-10 years from now , F-22 and F-35 will start to get competition . First it would be PAK FA , then J-20 , J-31 , Japanese are developing something , Indians also etc ... Countries buying F-35 now , and in next 10 years , will be in an exclusive club but they will pay hefty sum for that . I don't think price of the F-35 will come down below $100 million (in today's dollars ) until 2025 , if we exclude accounting gimmicks (separate sale of spares , weapons , tools , training etc... )


That's my point, we have a lot of money in the development and manufacture of the F-22 and the F-35, now look at Pak Fa, J-20, and the J-31. Five Pak-Fa, (they admit it will not be anywhere near the F-22 in regard to stealth), Two J-20 protototypes, (how stealthy is it??, will they have an engine to actually achieve the performance they are aiming for????), and the J-31, (one prototype, flown mostly with the gear down, recently started flying it again, most flights now gear UP, underpowered with the RD-93 powering the lone prototype???). I think the facts speak for themselves if you will listen, you make a lot of "false" acusations against Lock-Mart, but the truth is that they also have spent a LOT OF MONEY, stealth technology is NOT cheap, and even if you have the design drawing and engine tech, your manufacturing technology has to be able to reproduce the HARDWARE.
Now my point is not to be disrespectful, I love all three of these airplanes, and they are all good airplanes from an eye-ball engineering perspective, and they show a lot of promise, but each of these three aircraft will be built with some compromises, that will likely bear on how effective they truly are??? so lets be honest in our assessement of each of these aircraft, and lay off the generic/liberal beating on the US birds and their manufacturer, the truth is LOCK-MART is leading the way, and the US gov continues to pay them, because they "deliver". Simple, NO????? brat

 

[thunderchief]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

@Air Force Brat , I don't want to compare prototypes , because we still don't know what would be final configuration of any of the mentioned fighters . Whole point of my discussion was that you cannot realistically expect huge drop in F-35 price for a number of years - lets say until 2025.

 

[Air Force Brat]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

@Air Force Brat , I don't want to compare prototypes , because we still don't know what would be final configuration of any of the mentioned fighters . Whole point of my discussion was that you cannot realistically expect huge drop in F-35 price for a number of years - lets say until 2025.

I absolutely agree with you here thunderchief, the sad part is the F-22 was down to 130 million per aircraft, that was the amount specified in the AI of the Alaskan bird we lost, the JSF was billed as costing much less than the F-22, and that simply "ain't so". So you are correct, it will be very costly, BUT, the F-35 has a whole new bag of tricks up her sleeve electronically, and we are just now beginning to bring those up to speed, it will get cheaper, sooner, rather than later as long as production numbers remain up, but anymore cuts will cause us the same dissapointments that we experienced with the F-22, any time you cut production, you increase cost. Thanks for your thoughtful post, brat

 

[asif iqbal]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

Another important thing to note is that out of the 186 active F22 Raptors 123 are combat coded, 27 are training, 16 testing and 20 attrition reserve

Out of the 123 for combat only 60-70% are ready for deployment because of constant maintainence

Now F22 is entering its Inc 3.2A upgrade followed by Inc 3.2B which should see it through until 2030

Point is F35 really needs to be entering service and quickly

 

[Jeff Head]

re: F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Thread

I absolutely agree with you here thunderchief, the sad part is the F-22 was down to 130 million per aircraft, the JSF was billed as costing much less than the F-22, and that simply "ain't so". So you are correct, it will be very costly,

Brat, the fly-away cost for LRIP 6 and LRIP 7 are as follows:

LRIP 6 - 36 aircraft
F-35A - $103 million aircraft + $15 million engine = $118 million (23 purchased)
F-35B - $109 million aircraft + $35 million engine = $144 million (06 purchased)
F-35C - $120 million aircraft + $15 million engine = $135 million (07 purchased)

LRIP 7 - 35 aircraft
F-35A - $ 98 million aircraft + $14 million engine = $112 million (23 purchased)
F-35B - $104 million aircraft + $33 million engine = $137 million (06 purchased)
F-35C - $116 million aircraft + $14 million engine = $130 million (07 purchased)

The US Air Force program manager indicates that he is confident that the Alpha aircraft cost once they reach full production (2017 or 2018) will be below 90 million and that the basic engine will be down to 11 or 12 million. They hope to stabilize flyaway costs for the F-35A at under $100 million.

This means that the Bravo will cost close to $120 million, and the Charlie will cost about $110 million in those time frames.

I believe they will achieve these goals.