European Economics Thread

[gelgoog]

Stellantis only uses the Netherlands as a place for its HQ to dodge taxes. Their factories and R&D facilities are all out of the Netherlands.
The main shareholder is a rich Italian family who were the founders of Fiat and Ferrari among other Italian car companies.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Germany central bank may need a bailout package.

 

[Chevalier]

Germany central bank may need a bailout package.

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That’s what happens when your foreign minister works for a nation intent on the economic destruction and subservience of your country

 

[2handedswordsman]

That’s what happens when your foreign minister works for a nation intent on the economic destruction and subservience of your country

Well, thats why Thatcher said there's no society but individual people making individual decisions. It doesn't include nations as a social stracture. She tried to theoriticize greed. Shame on you, witch! Lol

 

[Topazchen]

Germany central bank may need a bailout package.

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Will the bailout come with Greece-like conditions like Budget cuts, tax increases, privatization of state assets, including public utilities, cutting pensions, and strict monitoring and oversight by the ECB and IMF?

 

[mossen]

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Sign of the times. Europe now needs to *actively* slow down gas storage filling.

There is a structural shift towards renewables. Not just in Europe but also in China. Big problem for gas producers like Russia.

 

[gelgoog]

"Structural shift towards renewables". The Germans are back to burning coal more like it. And European heavy industry is being wiped out.

Germany is going back in time in terms of coal targets. Last year they generated more power from coal than at any year since 2018. Gas consumption as a percentage of total output only decreased very slightly. What gains came from wind and solar are being totally negated by closing down nuclear. It will be interesting to look at this year's numbers now that the gas from Russia is basically gone.

The German nuclear power plants were basically depreciated at this point. Most of them could have been refurbished to continue to operate for another 20 years. Most other countries are doing this. Russia for example has either refurbished or is refurbishing its VVER NPPs to work another 20 years. With refurbishing a nuclear power plant can last 60 years using current technology.

As for renewables ending gas use that is flawed thinking. Most countries use natural gas for load leveling i.e. peaking to compensate for the variability of renewables. Few countries in Europe have the pumped storage hydro capacity to compensate for grid variability without gas. I will also add that the peaking gas power plants have half the efficiency of a modern combined cycle gas power plant operating at constant power level. Without some revolutionary change in terms of energy storage technology this situation will not change.

 

[mossen]

Germany is going back in time in terms of coal targets.

Nah, you're wrong. Coal usage in Germany so far during 2023 is *way* down from 2022.



If we look at June alone, it's 20% this year vs 31% last year. The long-term shift away from coal is ongoing. 2022 was just an unpredictable energy shock and trying to draw any conclusions from a black swan event is foolish.

Besides, Europe is more than just Germany. Berlin's energy policy has long been pretty stupid even before Covid. Large parts of Europe with existing nuclear capacity are re-investing, including my own country (Sweden).

As for gas, deluded rhetoric about "Europeans will have widespread blackouts" looks more idiotic by the day.

 

[gelgoog]

Nah, you're wrong. Coal usage in Germany so far during 2023 is *way* down from 2022.

View attachment 115807

If we look at June alone, it's 20% this year vs 31% last year. The long-term shift away from coal is ongoing. 2022 was just an unpredictable energy shock and trying to draw any conclusions from a black swan event is foolish.

I guess you did not look at your own chart all the way through. In 2022 coal use had basically regressed to 2018 levels. As for 2023 there was less usage of coal in electricity generation in Germany in 2020.

Besides, Europe is more than just Germany. Berlin's energy policy has long been pretty stupid even before Covid. Large parts of Europe with existing nuclear capacity are re-investing, including my own country (Sweden).

A lot of countries in Europe are actually either following or even leading on that stupid flawed energy policy. Italy is a major economy in Europe and it does not use nuclear either.

As for gas, deluded rhetoric about "Europeans will have widespread blackouts" looks more idiotic by the day.

The heavy industry in Europe basically shut down just like we said it would. You cannot just cut like half or more of gas supply and expect everything to continue as normal. Germany has been hemorrhaging money, to the tune of $200 billion just last year, subsidizing energy prices. The use of "market" pricing in gas in Europe instead of stable negotiated long term prices will also continue to introduce long term volatility into the price. And excessive reliance on renewables leads to grid instability and higher energy prices overall. Which will make Europe economically uncompetitive with the rest of the world.

 

[gelgoog]

Industrial production vs 2015 level (blue), Energy intensive industrial production vs 2015 level (red). In Germany.
As you can tell a large fraction of energy intensive industrial production has either been shut down or throttled down.