European Economics Thread

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Never heard of this before, but there are large water issues in Spain. Maybe will effect European fruit prices pretty dramatically, especially during winter and fall.
It is nothing new. Southern Spain and Italy are turning into a desert. Spain has done numerous North-South water diversion projects but they can only mitigate things slightly.
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member

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The just-released revisions to Germany’s growth data point to a 0.3% contraction in GDP in the first quarter of this year (the initial estimate was 0%). As this follows the 0.5% GDP fall in the prior quarter, Germany is now officially in a recession.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
For Ukrainian freedom and democracy, but at what costs?


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EU’s economic engine grinding to a halt​

German factory orders fell sharply in machinery, equipment, and miscellaneous vehicle production

Factory orders in Germany dropped in April amid persistently high prices that caused a decline in large-scale purchases, data from the country’s federal statistics office Destatis showed on Tuesday.

Overall new orders in manufacturing fell by 0.4% from the previous month. The drop in bookings was smaller than in March, when they plummeted 10.9% from February, the biggest fall since April 2020 during the Covid-19 lockdowns. However, the decline was notable in comparison to last year’s figures, with orders plunging 9.9% versus last April.

The data revealed significant differences in orders across industrial sectors. Bookings in machinery and equipment manufacturing fell 6.2% month-on-month in April, while miscellaneous vehicle construction, which includes ships, trains, aircraft, spacecraft, and army vehicles, showed a 34% plunge. These sectors had a particularly strong negative impact on the overall statistics, Destatis said.

New orders in the consumer goods and capital goods sectors also dropped, by 2.5% and 1.7% respectively. Electrical equipment and motor vehicles, on the other hand, saw respective gains of 12% and 2.4%.

Overall domestic orders were slightly up, by 1.6%. Foreign orders, meanwhile, dropped by 1.8%.

Analysts attribute the drop in manufacturing orders to elevated prices and tight monetary policy, which are dragging down demand. Germany has formally entered a recession after seeing two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Meanwhile, the German Economy Ministry said that the country’s “export-oriented economy is suffering particularly from the still weak global economy and the decline in orders from the euro area.

According to economists at Commerzbank, the existing order backlog may be sufficient to support German industry “for a few months.” However, given the dearth of new orders, industrial activity is likely to see “a significant decline” in the second half of the year.

Industry is then likely to play a major role in causing the German economy to contract again.”
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Gas prices have plummeted.

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Storage levels are also running ahead of their historical norms. Even if the 2023 winter will be colder than the 2022 winter, there will be more than sufficient storage.

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2023 will be a year of recession due to lagged effects of the energy crisis + rate hikes. But the worst is behind us. The reason? The renewable energy boom.

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Notice that the boom has continued into 2023, even as gas prices fell off a cliff. It's a structural trend here to stay.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Gas storage was never meant to totally replace gas imports. The storage was sized taking into consideration that supplies would continue from Russia through the middle of the winter in the first place. The storage was meant to compensate for the extra demand in the winter. Not totally satisfy all demand. At the same time the gas fields in the Netherlands are closing down, while gas production in Norway is also expected to decrease.

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