European Economics Thread

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BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
View attachment 115876

Industrial production vs 2015 level (blue), Energy intensive industrial production vs 2015 level (red). In Germany.
As you can tell a large fraction of energy intensive industrial production has either been shut down or throttled down.
Click to expand...
Dam the war has been worse for German Industrial sector than the covid lock downs.

If im not mistaken here in the Netherlands industrial output also dropped as much as at the start of the covid pandemic.
So our industrial sector had like 1 year to recover from covid policies and now it gets an energy supply shock...
 
mossen

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
In 2022 coal use had basically regressed to 2018 levels
Click to expand...

2022 was the year of a massive energy crisis, did you miss that?

gelgoog said:
As for 2023 there was less usage of coal in electricity generation in Germany in 2020.
Click to expand...

That's because of the Covid lockdowns. The economy fell of a cliff and so energy usage was way down. As a result, coal usage took a breather. Your argument hinges on two black swans: Covid and the 2022 invasion. Not a strong base.

2023 will be a normal(ish) year in terms of energy. True, gas prices are still higher than pre-covid. But there's no question that coal keeps being systematically reduced. The meme that Germany is now more dependent on coal than ever is a lie that refuses to die. It's not in the data and won't be true next year either.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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September 28, 2022
...
Germany's cabinet on Wednesday passed two decrees to prolong the operation of sizeable hard coal-fired power generation plants up to March 31, 2024, and to bring back idled brown coal capacity up to June 30, 2023, to boost supply.

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December 29, 2022
Germany had been winding down its brown coal production. Then an energy crisis hit. Now, thousands of people have promised to resist January plans to demolish a village and dig up the coal beneath it.
...
attempts to save Lützerath got more complicated after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis in Europe. Cut off from Russian natural gas, Germany has scrambled to secure an alternative energy supply. That included crawling back to its homegrown coal industry. This year, the government has moved to bring around a dozen plants back on the grid, and extended the lifespan of several that were meant to be shuttered.
...
"We have to bring power plant units back onto the grid in the short term and need more coal," said Markus Krebber, the CEO of RWE

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August 22, 2022
Germany plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038, but now a second plant will be back in service next week under a new regulation aimed at saving gas.
 
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luminary

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Euractiv
9.3% of the population unable to keep their homes adequately warm in 2022, a jump from 6.9% the year before.


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Intellinews
The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said on July 20 that, as well as curtailing Russia's ability to obtain technology, the new sanctions package included moves aimed at reducing its revenue from mining, degrading its access to the international financial system and starving it of defence, aerospace and other technology produced by G7.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
German manufacturing PMI is approaching Covid-lockdown levels..

Image
 
mossen

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
@gelgoog, all your links are from 2022 and simply proves my point. Meanwhile, I have actual data showing that coal usage is now way down thus far for 2023. In other words, your argument is literally debunked by looking at aggregate data.

ember-data-explorer-png.115807


You can spam as many 2022 links as you want. Still won't make a difference. The data tells a different story.
 
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