East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

Scyth said:

Japan wants to talk "since there are issues".

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This is actually very good news. Here's the entire statement:

Japanese Prime Minister said:

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping to reset relations after an escalation in bilateral tensions, invoking a 2006 visit to Beijing during his first administration.

“Since there are issues, it is all the more important to have a leaders’ meeting,” Abe said in an interview in the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo. “I visited China as prime minister and met with Hu Jintao and we shared the view that we should develop our ties based on a strategic, mutually beneficial relationship. Now is the time to go back to that starting point.”

Today’s call by Abe is his most explicit yet for a summit since China’s declaration last month of an air-defense zone that overlaps with Japan’s over the East China Sea. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, on a trip to Japan, China and South Korea this week, urged the two nations to establish crisis-management communication.

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No mention in there about eliminating or reducing the ADIZ. Just indicated that there are issues and the two sides need to get together and talk about them. That's a good thing.

Scyth said:

He can't expect China to dismantle/ decrease the size of its ADIZ. Nor would I expect him to agree with China that Diaoyu islands belong to China, or at least the ownership is in dispute. Interesting to see how this will unfold.

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I do not expect Abe to seriously try and reduce the size of, or eliminate the PRC's ADIZ. ADIZs of themselves are not an unusual thing. If China uses it to identify potential threats before they reach the mainland, no one can argue about that because the other nations (including Japan) do exactly the same thing.

I personally believe that Abe's comments, "because there are issues," is his diplomatic speech for saying "there is a dispute." He had to word it that way because of political realities and the place he has put himself in in the past.

But...if Japan is willing to discuss the "issues," with the PRC President, then this is a very, very good thing. Discussing the "issues," means the two leaders talking about problems they both have...IOW, talking about the dipsute.

Glad to see this.

As I have stated, I believe the ADIZ is now an established fact that is not going to change...just like US ADIZs are, just like Japanese ADIZs, just like South Korean ADIZs are, etc., etc.

I agree with you Jeff that it's a good thing that Japan is apparently willing to negotiate, but I have some doubts whether Japan is really entirely open for negotiation as this would mean a 180 degree turn for Abe. His past statement of (not an exact quote, but something in that sense) "there is no dispute and we'll shoot down anything violating our airspace" to "there are issues and we're willing to discuss it" is dramatic.

Scyth said:

I agree with you Jeff that it's a good thing that Japan is apparently willing to negotiate, but I have some doubts whether Japan is really entirely open for negotiation as this would mean a 180 degree turn for Abe. His past statement of (not an exact quote, but something in that sense) "there is no dispute and we'll shoot down anything violating our airspace" to "there are issues and we're willing to discuss it" is dramatic.

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Sounds like the ADIZ announcement is paying off for China.

Scyth said:

I agree with you Jeff that it's a good thing that Japan is apparently willing to negotiate, but I have some doubts whether Japan is really entirely open for negotiation as this would mean a 180 degree turn for Abe. His past statement of (not an exact quote, but something in that sense) "there is no dispute and we'll shoot down anything violating our airspace" to "there are issues and we're willing to discuss it" is dramatic.

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Whatever the reason...and I believe that behind closed doors, Biden probably made sone very strong overtures...Abe has now openly indicated that there are "issues," between China and Japan around this and thet they need to meet and talk about them.

That is a HUGE step, and one that will lead to at least some negotiationg, and at least to some chance for a resolution if it indeed continues.

It is unlikely that either side will get all that it wants...but that is what happens in negotiating. And in order to be able to do negotiate, both sides have to recognize that what they are talking about is not so fundamental to their being that they cannot talk. With this announcement, that may have at least a chance of happening to one degree or other.

Jeff Head said:

This is actually very good news. Here's the entire statement:


But...if Japan is willing to discuss the "issues," with the PRC President, then this is a very, very good thing. Discussing the "issues," means the two leaders talking about problems they both have...IOW, talking about the dipsute.

Glad to see this.

As I have stated, I believe the ADIZ is now an established fact that is not going to change...just like US ADIZs are, just like Japanese ADIZs, just like South Korean ADIZs are, etc., etc.

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The thing is, Jeff.

Abe always said he wants to talk, meet with Xi, FM to FM etc etc.

but the issue is Chinese don't see as "sincere",

Chinese (IMHO, rightly) assess that these talks are just domestic political cover for him , to make his policies look like they are not out of ordinary. His government up and down has refused for a long time to budge on this issue, he has staked enough political capital on this for him to back down. He has offered nothing, no nudge or node towards the direction of "Ambiguity on Sovereignty" that predates the current crisis.

he could very well get his meeting, and in it they could talk about nothing but the weather and still come out look like he is a winner.

for a long time the broad spectrum of opinions in Japan, including the realists in the LDP as well as other political figures in Japan has at least advocated a stable, negotiated relationship with China. and its actual initiatives has for long time been steered by "China Experts" in its MFA and other academic and bureaucratic elites. Now the China policy is a pure politically driven issue, maneuvered by hack nationalist instead of professionals, with the China Expert diplomatic corp reduced to a mere mail delivery corp. delivering protests and official letters.

( I think that ) China has enough back channels with Japanese power structure that a mis-communication on epic proportion would not happen. But give Abe a free political cover? no.


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(little bit OT)
you should really read what Abe has in mind on changing the Japanese Constitution, this is ultimately what he is going after. not only the section on right of collective defense, but on the whole other spectrum of issues...

>>> You are right I.E., it is off topic and not related to the ADIZ. It is also inflamatory and provocative to this discussion. We already closed the thread once because of this. Let's not go back there again. <<<

i.e. said:

The thing is, Jeff.

Abe always said he wants to talk, meet with Xi, FM to FM etc etc.

but the issue is Chinese don't see as "sincere",

Chinese (IMHO, rightly) assess that these talks are just domestic political cover for him , to make his policies look like they are not out of ordinary. His government up and down has refused for a long time to budge on this issue, he has staked enough political capital on this for him to back down. He has offered nothing, no nudge or node towards the direction of "Ambiguity on Sovereignty" that predates the current crisis.

he could very well get his meeting, and in it they could talk about nothing but the weather and still come out look like he is a winner.

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He indicated that there are issues. That since there are issues, both sides need to talk.

No doubt the use of the word "issues," is politically motivated to give him cover. But, he has now puit this statement out there, and he did so at this time. China should take him up on it.

I promise you, they will not , "talk about the weather." If anything like that happened, he would be immediately outed and made to look very bad.

So I hope...and I expect...there will be a discussion, and there will be at least some meat to it.

1.3 said:

(little bit OT)
you should really read what Abe has in mind on changing the Japanese Constitution, this is ultimately what he is going after. not only the section on right of collective defense, but on the whole other spectrum of issues...

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I.E., you are right. It is off topic.

That has nothing to do with the ADIZ. In fact, it is more than off topic. It is off topic material you are using on this thread to reinforce your position which will do nothing but raise the ire, temperature, emotions, etc. on this thread.

We closed the thread already once because of that.

Do not post Off Topic material that is provocative, or inflaming.

We can discuss the ADIZ without it. Until you posed that OT stuff, you were doing a good job of doing so.

Jeff Head said:

He indicated that there are issues. That since there are issues, both sides need to talk.

No doubt the use of the word "issues," is politically motivated to give him cover. But, he has now puit this statement out there, and he did so at this time. China should take him up on it.

I promise you, they will not , "talk about the weather." If anything like that happened, he would be immediately outed and made to look very bad.

So I hope...and I expect...there will be a discussion, and there will be at least some meat to it.

I.E., you are right. It is off topic.

That has nothing to do with the ADIZ. In fact, it is more than off topic. It is off topic material you are using on this thread to reinforce your position which will do nothing but raise the ire, temperature, emotions, etc. on this thread.

We closed the thread already once because of that.

Do not post Off Topic material that is provocative, or inflaming.

We can discuss the ADIZ without it. Until you posed that OT stuff, you were doing a good job of doing so.

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It is little bit, but not entirely.
One has to understand the motivations of the main characters in this Kabuki play to understand the Kabuki Play.
ADIZ and east china sea is but one of the topics of his entire agenda. it is an accelerant of what he is trying to do.

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and how is posting a reuters report on LDP proposed Constitutional changes (which amongst other things, changing of the defense relatived Article 9 of the constitution) and commenting on the motivation of the main characters involved... Inflammatory

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of for that matter...
how is commenting on the perfect broken record of broken Intra-national treaties, by one its main actors in this ADIZ kabuki show... OT?

One of the main news agencies reported on leaked documents from the Japanese cabinet.

To dial back tensions, the Chinese wanted the following to occur:

1. Japan to acknowledge a dispute on the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
2. The Japanese cabinet to stop making anti-China remarks in public

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Come to think of it, such leaks are now covered by the state secrecy law which just passed.

Cheng said:

One of the main news agencies reported on leaked documents from the Japanese cabinet.

To dial back tensions, the Chinese wanted the following to occur:

1. Japan to acknowledge a dispute on the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
2. The Japanese cabinet to stop making anti-China remarks in public

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Come to think of it, such leaks are now covered by the state secrecy law which just passed.

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yes, and I thought the bar was bit higher than that.

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Thats right... the new state secrecy laws passed by Japanese Diet.

another retrograde step by Abe towards anti-liberalism.

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come to think of it, a strong japan is actually is somewhat in the long interest of china.
it prevents china to waste its adolescence energy on point less foreign adventures and focus the energy at domestic issues.

Jeff Head said:

He indicated that there are issues. That since there are issues, both sides need to talk.

No doubt the use of the word "issues," is politically motivated to give him cover. But, he has now puit this statement out there, and he did so at this time. China should take him up on it.

I promise you, they will not , "talk about the weather." If anything like that happened, he would be immediately outed and made to look very bad.

So I hope...and I expect...there will be a discussion, and there will be at least some meat to it.

Click to expand...

While there is a vague description of "issues" and a need to talk, i.e.'s position is that just even agreeing to a meet between the two leaders is giving Abe too many political points. Talk is a worthy endeavor, but Abe and company painted themselves into this situation and can't honestly expect all goes away just because he now wants to talk. Even South Korea's Park isn't giving him the time of day. The only realistic meet would be maybe a quick huddle in passing at some international conference. I'm afraid the damage is done and won't have any real chance of a reboot till Abe is gone.

For all the provocations Japan and Abe does, just once I wish the US would speak in public against it. It's not just one side who's escalating the tension.