D
Deleted member 15887
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Susan Rice >>>>> Mike Pompeo. Plus, she's much less toxic towards China (and was the one who promoted Obama's cooperative engagement with China for climate change help)
Susan Rice >>>>> Mike Pompeo. Plus, she's much less toxic towards China (and was the one who promoted Obama's cooperative engagement with China for climate change help)
If the Republicans manage to hold onto the Senate, it'll be interesting to see if she'll manage to get confirmed to a Cabinet position, or whether the Foreign Relations committee will continue to dig out the Benghazi skeletons in her closet.
I'm not that big a fan of Susan Rice, but I totally agree she'd be a (much needed) breath of fresh air for US foreign policy as well as Sino-US relations. Honestly Pompeo's China-bashing tweets are getting boring and all too predictable.
My predictions for Biden administration:
The GOOD:
a) Biden hires a bunch of ex-Obama foreign policy officials to fill the cabinet. (e.g. "return to stability")
b) Within 6-12 mons, China tariffs will be repealed.
c) Meng Wanzhou is released from Canada custody, after Biden ends Iranian sanctions and re-enters nuclear deal.
d) Biden removes Huawei from Entity list, enabling US to supply Huawei with US equipment/software. (I think Huawei will be banned from 5G contracts, due to lobbying from Nokia and Samsung)
e) Biden eliminates restrictions on SMIC accessing ASML EUV lithography equipment.
f) Houston and Chengdu embassies will be restored.
e) US and China cooperate on climate change together.
f) Navarro and Jabba the Pomp will be booted out.
The BAD:
a) Biden will restart Obama's Pivot to Asia strategy
b) Biden tries to strength alliances in Europe and East Asia.
c) Biden will try TPP-style "gathering allies" to contain China economically.
d) Biden will still promote anti-China rhetoric, even if it's just token gesture to appease the Rust Belt.
e) US containment of China will just be more "clever" and "smarter" under Biden, China is still a target.
China should restore friendly relationships, but operate like the tech war never ended, and go full-on indigenization in semiconductors and high-end tech. Even if Biden ends the tech war and trade war, the Chinese leadership should operate like China's tech industry is still under attack. Never let the guard down, China really needs to dominate this industry.
The GOOD:
a) Biden hires a bunch of ex-Obama foreign policy officials to fill the cabinet. (e.g. "return to stability")
b) Within 6-12 mons, China tariffs will be repealed.
c) Meng Wanzhou is released from Canada custody, after Biden ends Iranian sanctions and re-enters nuclear deal.
d) Biden removes Huawei from Entity list, enabling US to supply Huawei with US equipment/software. (I think Huawei will be banned from 5G contracts, due to lobbying from Nokia and Samsung)
e) Biden eliminates restrictions on SMIC accessing ASML EUV lithography equipment.
f) Houston and Chengdu embassies will be restored.
e) US and China cooperate on climate change together.
f) Navarro and Jabba the Pomp will be booted out.
The BAD:
a) Biden will restart Obama's Pivot to Asia strategy
b) Biden tries to strength alliances in Europe and East Asia.
c) Biden will try TPP-style "gathering allies" to contain China economically.
d) Biden will still promote anti-China rhetoric, even if it's just token gesture to appease the Rust Belt.
e) US containment of China will just be more "clever" and "smarter" under Biden, China is still a target.
China should restore friendly relationships, but operate like the tech war never ended, and go full-on indigenization in semiconductors and high-end tech. Even if Biden ends the tech war and trade war, the Chinese leadership should operate like China's tech industry is still under attack. Never let the guard down, China really needs to dominate this industry.
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My predictions. Biden will be as hawkish if not more hawkish. China has zero advocates in DC. Biden looks at the polling. 90% of voters are anti-China. Being anti China has political benefits.
Biden will probably create some sort of expanded NATO to include India, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam. And NATO will not only be a military alliance but a technology and trade alliance. Where they coordinate to put tariffs on imports from China. While simultaneously restricting China's access to anything related to semiconductor or technology.
This is why I think Trump is the lesser evil.
Biden will probably create some sort of expanded NATO to include India, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam. And NATO will not only be a military alliance but a technology and trade alliance. Where they coordinate to put tariffs on imports from China. While simultaneously restricting China's access to anything related to semiconductor or technology.
This is why I think Trump is the lesser evil.
D
Deleted member 15887
Guest
NATO came out of a full-blown war in Europe. As tense as things are right now between China and the West, it hasn't devolved to the point where Asian countries feel like they need to join a US-led Asian NATO (especially since they benefit economically from engaging and cooperating with China). Hell, the US is struggling to even institutionalize the Quad, let alone a full-blown Asian NATO.
Regarding that , the probability of Republican holding the senate is lower than Trump holding the presidency. In a few red states like Montana and South Carolina, their incumbent senate positions are more precarious than the incumbent president.
India is too important for US to criticize. India is on board with US cold War against China. Biden will turn a blind eye.
No offense, but your arguments, this quoted message, and others remind me of folks in Reddit geopolitics subreddit. For them, nothing else matters in this world other than containing China. That includes looking at the other way all 'negative' actions of Turkey, India, Brazil, etc.
Yeah but that's how geopolitics works. Your enemy's enemy is your friend. India or Brazil is not a big enough threat to the US. so Biden will turn a blind eye. US is hell bent on containing China.
US has been turning a blind eye on Saudi and Israel for years. A little more hypocrisy won't break the bank. Does any one really think US cares about democracy and human rights? No the only thing they care is power.