Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

gelgoog said:

Biden is one of the people responsible for the Ukrainian color revolution. Obama started by "pivot to Asia" and wanted to make a free trade deal with Asia which specifically excluded China and was outside the context of ASEAN and in fact seeked to undermine it.

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Hi gelgoog,

Democrats had a hate thing about Russia, I don't know what trigger this hate, don't get me wrong both Democrats and Republican had a bipartisan issue against China, its more of a geopolitics and economics, but with Russia I really don't know the reason.

hullopilllw said:

indo pacific framework is also undermining asean unity. Japan for one is attempting to pull Indonedia and Vietnam into the group, which is lead to seperate policies from the ASEAN common stance.

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Hi hullopilllw,

You forget Singapore in the list, This pandemic expose the true power in ASEAN , Indonesia and Thailand hold sway, if Mahathir stay in power you may include Malaysia as well. But this two country is what count the most, lets take a look on Indonesia , it had a large population, it sits on a major strategic maritime gateway. If President Joko Widodo know how to leverage its advantage, Indonesia will be a regional superpower, but there is a fly in the room, AUSTRALIA. the deputy sheriff. They are more concern about Indonesia than China and want to retain its regional power and influence (if any).

Japan for one is attempting to pull Indonedia and Vietnam into the group, which is lead to seperate policies from the ASEAN common stance.

I really pity Japan, whatever influence they want to exert it cannot match China, all ASEAN countries are hedging their bets, after all they sit in the region where the growth is, why rock the boat (competition is good). The Indonesian and MAlaysian HSR a good example how they able to extract the maximum benefit, If China isn't there, they will be stuck with an expensive white elephant project that Japan is famous for (Taiwan HSR).

ansy1968 said:

Hi gelgoog,

Democrats had a hate thing about Russia, I don't know what trigger this hate, don't get me wrong both Democrats and Republican had a bipartisan issue against China, its more of a geopolitics and economics, but with Russia I really don't know the reason.

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Russia is much easier to blame thanks to the leftover mentality and fear from the Cold War and their lack of economic ties. Plus, what the heck can Russia do? Nuke em? However, China is a complete different story. Despite Trump and his cultists' rhetoric about decoupling, they won't do that due to the duo's interwoven economies. Any decoupling will significantly cripple or even destroy the US's and maybe China's economies.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Russia is much easier to blame thanks to the leftover mentality and fear from the Cold War and their lack of economic ties. Plus, what the heck can Russia do? Nuke em? However, China is a complete different story. Despite Trump and his cultists' rhetoric about decoupling, they won't do that due to the duo's interwoven economies. Any decoupling will significantly cripple or even destroy the US's and maybe China's economies.

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Hi LawLeadsToPeace,

Thanks for your explanation, Russia being a large country can able to isolate itself and survive.

Any decoupling will significantly cripple or even destroy the US's and maybe China's economies.

My theory is that in China most US corporate benefit a lot and they are greedy, they dont want a competitor, this decoupling is a way to diminish the role of its vassal state from gaining an advantage in the huge Chinese market.

ansy1968 said:

Hi LawLeadsToPeace,

Thanks for your explanation, Russia being a large country can able to isolate itself and survive.

Any decoupling will significantly cripple or even destroy the US's and maybe China's economies.

My theory is that in China most US corporate benefit a lot and they are greedy, they dont want a competitor, this decoupling is a way to diminish the role of its vassal state from gaining an advantage in the huge Chinese market.

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Agreed and they also thought the Chinese don't have the capacity to be self-reliant until SMIC and a bunch of other companies rose to the challenge. That is why they are asking for licenses now since they realized they screwed up and woke the Chinese up from their dream state. As for Russia, as long as China is trading with them en masse, they'll be fine. However if they are isolated, their economy will quickly be destroyed due to their dependence on their oil and military exports.

Now back to the topic on hand, in my opinion, with the absolute collapse of US-China relations and the rapid rise of China (assuming their government doesn't mess up), Biden cannot fix what Trump did. The US completely lost the Chinese's trust, especially that of the people who originally thought of the Western nations, particularly the US, as role models. However, since the US is basically getting smacked to death by Covid 19 and is on life-support that is also failing, the US won't have the energy to duke it out with China. So, Biden is most likely gonna focus on that instead and rebuild the US's economy at an extremely slow rate thanks to the Chinese's focus on self-reliance. Besides that, to be completely honest, based on how things are going, the US's hostility towards China will peak this year.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Agreed and they also thought the Chinese don't have the capacity to be self-reliant until SMIC and a bunch of other companies rose to the challenge. That is why they are asking for licenses now since they realized they screwed up and woke the Chinese up from their dream state. As for Russia, as long as China is trading with them en masse, they'll be fine. However if they are isolated, their economy will quickly be destroyed due to their dependence on their oil and military exports.

Now back to the topic on hand, in my opinion, with the absolute collapse of US-China relations and the rapid rise of China (assuming their government doesn't mess up), Biden cannot fix what Trump did. The US completely lost the Chinese's trust, especially that of the people who originally thought of the Western nations, particularly the US, as role models. However, since the US is basically getting smacked to death by Covid 19 and is on life-support that is also failing, the US won't have the energy to duke it out with China. So, Biden is most likely gonna focus on that instead and rebuild the US's economy at an extremely slow rate thanks to the Chinese's focus on self-reliance. Besides that, to be completely honest, based on how things are going, the US's hostility towards China will peak this year.

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Hi LawLeadsToPeace,

So a reset then, and now with the US holding a weaker hand? I don't want to sound triumphalism, but sometimes fate do played a role in one fortune. Earlier in the year China was down and out and was ridicule by the rest of the world, but now they were able to normalized , its also a baptism of fire for XI JING PING leadership. This will give China the confidence to move on and faces major challenges. I think the US know they had lost their advantages in negotiating any trade deals with China, their desperate and it shows, that's why they enlist the help of other " like minded democratic nation" to put pressure, like I said before this collective pressure will only stiffen Chinese resolved.

Worth a read for possible actions by a biden administration, written by hillary clinton

daifo said:

Worth a read for possible actions by a biden administration, written by hillary clinton

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Hi daifo,

She is really an evil person, a warmonger and a corporatist, Fortunately the Clintons are being sideline due to their association with EPSTEIN. if Biden wins his presidency is a figurehead, it will be a Obama administration part two.

What I'm hoping is the progressive side of the DNC party will assert itself and demand structural changes. They will have that opportunity especially that democrats are forecast to win both houses of congress, if they were thwart again like what Obama did at occupy wall street,
there will be blood in the street and people had no choice but to revolt.

daifo said:

Worth a read for possible actions by a biden administration, written by hillary clinton

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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Okay ... I didn't read it ... guilty as charged !!!

Only glanced at the first paragraph and the last paragraph, and this is my guess what the Hillary wants to do and her power hungry clique.

The Americans want to double down on the past.

Well ... they can do that. Does not matter who wins, they can continue on a robust China policy, underpinned by success from the past history of the United States.

Two words ... times change ...

China will be economically bigger than the United State probably within 5 years, or sooner if the US Dollar depreciates.

China will be even more intertwined with various regions of the globe economically and politically, and be more influential.

China will be even more technologically advanced, and in some areas have an absolute advantage over the United States, with 5G networks and quantum communications two areas with clear undisputed wide leads.

China will be even more militarily capable. There is no nation on earth that has a chance to defeat China in war other than the United States. Very unlikely there will be a long list of countries willing to sign up to a military confrontation against China. The United States watching your back is not a creditable long term proposition.

The only changes to US policy towards China if Biden should win, is some of the more stupid stuff will not be done anymore, because it is stupid, and the volume will be lower, no more bullhorn.

One thing that will definitely not change is the tariffs implemented by Trump.

Once you put them in there, it is politically impossible to take them out, and go down the liberalization of trade route, causing more layoffs, especially in a pandemic economy.

What the Americans should fixed, first and foremost, is the pandemic. On that, they are unable.

Do not matter who wins, the United States will be dealing with China from a much weaker position.

In isolation, or collectively with allies, it will not make a difference.

China has a plan. Unless US actions can derail that, it does not make a difference how many or how few friends the US has in it confrontation with China.

ansy1968 said:

Hi daifo,

She is really an evil person, a warmonger and a corporatist, Fortunately the Clintons are being sideline due to their association with EPSTEIN. if Biden wins his presidency is a figurehead, it will be a Obama administration part two.

What I'm hoping is the progressive side of the DNC party will assert itself and demand structural changes. They will have that opportunity especially that democrats are forecast to win both houses of congress, if they were thwart again like what Obama did at occupy wall street,
there will be blood in the street and people had no choice but to revolt.

Click to expand...

I guess there is the fact that if the democrats win this time, they may face and uprising from the right wing supremacist who are not going to take a democrat win lying down. Also to note is that there is over 60+ million unemployed. If they don’t handle all those people, also given that they are being strapped to the limit with regards to supplies, they will need to handle all those problems along with everything else. I would think that winning the White House isn’t going to be sunshine and rainbows, since they are in a much worse state to handle this crisis and Biden is no Obama,