What if the US Cyber Commands launches bunch to worms against China's command systems and grids before China could strike against US bases? What if several of Taiwan's HF-2Es, Yunfeng, and USN's Tomahawks manage to penetrate China's air defenses and blow up tons of dams in China? Worse, what if Taiwan decides to lob several standoff missiles at Fujian's nuclear power plants, and one of those just happen to make it through and punch a hole on one of Ningde Plant's reactors? Do you respond with nukes then?
I don't know about the so-called genocide, but I am willing to speculate that if the Taiwanese public does not surrender unconditionally after the war break out, expect some forms mass killings and destruction of Taiwanese indigenous culture (especially those used to promote Taiwanese otherness) unseen since the Cultural Revolution. For example, if the PLA were to be charged by bunch of mobs armed with T-91/T-65 rifles, do you really expect them not to fight back? The PLA is not bunch of baby sitters. Such political violence - inhumane as they sound - could also be used as a deterrent against pro-independence forces in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet. As the Chinese always love to say, kill a chicken to scare the monkey. In the end, nobody wins should a war break out over the Taiwan Strait. Beijing would also be a loser for being treated as a pariah state at least by all the white nations (maybe except Russia) plus India, Japan, and South Korea after the war.
What I am trying to say is that China is badly prepared to go to war right now. It takes time to stockpile arms. Also, I don't how China is going to manage the enormous civilian casualties this war could bring about. Keep in mind that Chinese citizens have high expectations for their government looking after them. Given such sense of entitlement, they could easily blame their unintended suffering on the government not doing enough to look after them.
