Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

Orthan said:

I tend to agree with you. I dont think that other nations will join the US in tech sale restrictions to china. They tend to need china more than the US does, and what would they gain with it?

But i can see the US adding more of its own restrictions to tech exports to china.

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But the US adding more technology restrictions is illogical and self-defeating.

It forces companies in China (and in Europe/Asia) to develop alternatives.

The majority (circa 60% ) of microchips in the world are either:
1. Consumed by China
2. Or used in products that are exported from China

And China already spends more on R&D than the USA, as per the National Science Foundation reports to Congress.

So after 3-10 years, you can expect Chinese companies to have removed all US technology content.

Biden's National Security Council sees Technology as 'Core' of US-China Rivalry​

Brookings' Hass, who worked with most of the team in the Obama administration, said, "All these people have worked very closely together, both inside and outside of governments. There's a lot of cohesion amongst them. They share agreement around broad principles."

"They have a common diagnosis of the relationship with China," he added. "We are in a strategic competition with China, and technology is going to be at the core of that competition."


Comment: A good article on who's who on Biden's incoming NSC. Technology, alliances, and demographics will determine the outcome of the US attempt to suppress China.

AndrewS said:

And China already spends more on R&D than the USA, as per the National Science Foundation reports to Congress.

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To be fair, that only applies if you count product development, which is the overwhelming majority of China's R&D. When it comes to basic and applied research, the U.S. spends far more, and is likely to increase that even further as part of its effort to counter China.

Basic research in China averaged around 5 percent of total R&D expenditure between 2000 to 2018, while the share of applied research dropped from 17 percent to 11.1 percent. Over the same period, the US poured 17.3 percent of its R&D funding into basic research and 20.4 percent into applied research. In nominal terms, China’s basic and applied expenditure was $77.1 billion in 2018, more than that of South Korea ($34.5 billion) and Japan ($54.7 billion), but less than half that of the US ($200.5 billion).

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Further, the U.S. benefits from R&D conducted in allied countries like the UK, Japan, Taiwan, etc. where companies from those countries will basically do what the US tells them to do. Not trying to dismiss China's substantial growth in this area, but complacency is not good. This is going to be one of the major areas of competition.

quantumlight said:

If America wants to OWN the 21st century, it has to actually start working for it from now on instead of expecting China just to roll over and hand it to them, can no longer rest on their WWII wins for a hundred years after the fact and expect the world never to change, Qing made that mistake and China paid for it dearly

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No matter how hard the USA tries, it simply isn't possible for the USA to own the 21st Century.

Not when China already has a larger market economy and also higher R&D spending.

AndrewS said:

No matter how hard the USA tries, it simply isn't possible for the USA to own the 21st Century.

Not when China already has a larger market economy and also higher R&D spending.

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The US dual prong strategy is to cut China off tech (by its own accord and also by holding its vassals hostage to do its bidding etc) whilst getting a coalition to isolate and contain China... Not saying its gonna happen, but at least hypothetically if US managed to get enough of the world to jump on this bandwagon (be it through PR, softpower, nuclear blackmail, what have you...) it could cause enough economic and tech erasure of China that US can hold its status quo well into the rest of the 21st century... Biden said "win" and "own", he said nothing about ethnics or playing fair...

We all know which way it is trending, but so does the US think tanks... and we all have at least see how they turned the Huawei trend from #1 seller of phone now down to #6 in just two years... this is just the sampler and tip of iceberg of what US has in store for China...

Normally I agree China can overcome the tech hurdles but we don't live in normal times anymore. Its a cold war 2.0 and US has coerced its vassals to all cut China off strategic tech look at the EUV factory fire as one example and then Dutch gov didn't renew the export license etc etc... America going down this path is betting ALL IN, as in they will do whatever it takes (CIA/ etc) to make sure China doesn't overcome the tech barriers etc... Whether or not it will work is another issue but the fact is the matter US will play very dirty more dirty than China can possibly imagine... Biden released Huawei princess yet? Not going to... in fact as we've seen they are doubling now...

gadgetcool5 said:

To be fair, that only applies if you count product development, which is the overwhelming majority of China's R&D. When it comes to basic and applied research, the U.S. spends far more, and is likely to increase that even further as part of its effort to counter China.

Basic research in China averaged around 5 percent of total R&D expenditure between 2000 to 2018, while the share of applied research dropped from 17 percent to 11.1 percent. Over the same period, the US poured 17.3 percent of its R&D funding into basic research and 20.4 percent into applied research. In nominal terms, China’s basic and applied expenditure was $77.1 billion in 2018, more than that of South Korea ($34.5 billion) and Japan ($54.7 billion), but less than half that of the US ($200.5 billion).

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Further, the U.S. benefits from R&D conducted in allied countries like the UK, Japan, Taiwan, etc. where companies from those countries will basically do what the US tells them to do. Not trying to dismiss China's substantial growth in this area, but complacency is not good. This is going to be one of the major areas of competition.

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You haven't been looking at the trend.

Chinese R&D spending is still seeing double-digit growth every year, because it is profitable to develop new products.

And with the technology war, even more R&D spending is going into basic and applied research.

gadgetcool5 said:

Comment: A good article on who's who on Biden's incoming NSC.

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A good article for those who are asia.nikkei.com subscribers.

gadgetcool5 said:

Biden's National Security Council sees Technology as 'Core' of US-China Rivalry​

Brookings' Hass, who worked with most of the team in the Obama administration, said, "All these people have worked very closely together, both inside and outside of governments. There's a lot of cohesion amongst them. They share agreement around broad principles."

"They have a common diagnosis of the relationship with China," he added. "We are in a strategic competition with China, and technology is going to be at the core of that competition."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Comment: A good article on who's who on Biden's incoming NSC. Technology, alliances, and demographics will determine the outcome of the US attempt to suppress China.

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Yeah, same hanky panky stuff for domestic consumption. Unless US goes through cultural revolution that makes its population come down from utopia to 10-5 office & factory workers, these are meant for audiences to say "we are still breathing ".

quantumlight said:

The US dual prong strategy is to cut China off tech (by its own accord and also by holding its vassals hostage to do its bidding etc) whilst getting a coalition to isolate and contain China... Not saying its gonna happen, but at least hypothetically if US managed to get enough of the world to jump on this bandwagon (be it through PR, softpower, nuclear blackmail, what have you...) it could cause enough economic and tech erasure of China that US can hold its status quo well into the rest of the 21st century... Biden said "win" and "own", he said nothing about ethnics or playing fair...

We all know which way it is trending, but so does the US think tanks... and we all have at least see how they turned the Huawei trend from #1 seller of phone now down to #6 in just two years... this is just the sampler and tip of iceberg of what US has in store for China...

Click to expand...

Huawei was expected to grow fast prior to US sanctions.
But US sanctions weren't a death knell.
In fact, Huawei actually managed to increase sales in both 2019 and 2020.
It has done this by developing alternatives to US technology as fast as possible.

Going forward, we'll probably see the same again in 2021.
So in a few years, Huawei will likely have a world-class technology stack without any US content.

It would be a similar dynamic with the Chinese technology sector overall, which has spent the past 2 years getting ready for US sanctions.

So in conclusion, US technology sanctions can slow down Chinese technology development in the short-term.

But after a few years, Chinese companies will come roaring back with better and cheaper technology.
And remember that the majority of the world is actually neutral and want nothing to do with a China-USA cold war.

quantumlight said:

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We all know which way it is trending, but so does the US think tanks... and we all have at least see how they turned the Huawei trend from #1 seller of phone now down to #6 in just two years... this is just the sampler and tip of iceberg of what US has in store for China...

Click to expand...

Yea, but the answer is right in the question. Did any US companies compete with Huawei to defeat it to number 6? Or was it something else?
When your enemy is using sanction to win modern tech war, that's first sign of surrender , they can't compete. The situation is more like US vs Taliban situation, only here US is playing Taliban role using primitive tactics.
As someone rightfully pointed out, unless US can gather 20 million top STEM background, it's just role play. US has never been an inventor, it always has been accumulator. And that only exists as long as money & the tradable goods exists. Right now US, UK is country of grandma, grandpa & drunkards.