What? I did talk about carriers just now. 6 of them in fact.Are we still in PLAN CV thread
CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
No. That's what the US can afford to spend if it were to keep taxation and other expenditure level close to what they are now.
As we have seen, a country with a serious perception of external danger, and are willing to adjust revenue and expenditure in other areas to suit, can sustain military expenditure equal to 25% of GDP, or about 5 times the current American defense spending, for at least several decades.
What is more, the geographic circumstances of the US allows it to devote a greater fraction of its military expenditure to mainly offensive commitments, because the US is unusually well protected against enemy offensive commitments by its unique geographic position. So that means the US has to spend less to keep a reciprocal level of pressure on an antogonist on the Euroasia mainland, then that antagonist has to spend to apply the pressure on the US.
I don't say china could not match or surpass American global power. What I do say is, due to the uniquely advantageous geographic and demographic position of the United States, and the disadvantageous geographic and demographic circumstances of china, a china that is at economic and technological parity with the US is still not well placed to match American global power in the long run.
For china to match American global power, china needs to securely command economic resources well in excess of those of the United States, and do so for several decades. Even then, China's global power might be greater, but would be less secure, and china would have more to lose from a major setback than the US.
For china to match American global power, china needs to securely command economic resources well in excess of those of the United States, and do so for several decades. Even then, China's global power might be greater, but would be less secure, and china would have more to lose from a major setback than the US.
Blackstone
Brigadier
And to prevent China or anyone else from matching American global power, the United States will go to extreme lengths to prevent the rise of another regional hegemon. It may not be possible in China's case, but America will insists on finding out the hard way. There wouldn't be a peaceful passing of baton, a-la UK and the US.
Just because China can't exert the same local pressure on the US as the US can on China does not mean that the US can sustain the cost of projecting to distance shores against a local competitor that is a peer in power. Given the cost of "finding out" relative to the rewards, don't be so sure that the US will be committed to fighting over time.
I think initially there will be a period of hostility fueled by American anxiety over the global implication of China's rise. But I suspect there is better than 50/50 chance the US will eventually come to an accommodation with a rising china when the US realizes the power of china is circumscribed by her unfavorable geographic and demographic circumstances, that China's challenge to the American global influence will remain regional even if china were to considerably exceed America in GDP, and American role as the premier power outside west pacific and east Asia region would not be overturned by china.
So once they get past the fact that their interests in the west pacific and east Asia are opposed, I suspect china and the US will come to see their interests in the broader world is not seriously in conflict. They can instead each help the other buttress the most critical aspects of each other' s global interests.
vesicles
Colonel
Actually, I think it's the opposite. It takes much more energy and resources for the US than for China to achieve the same goal. The geopolitical position actually puts the US at a disadvantage. There is a reason that the Americas were still in the Stone Age when Europeans landed in the new world. Historians and anthropologists have found that economic and social development happens longitudinally. The east-west communication allowed the Europe/Asia continents to develop so much more advanced than the isolated north-south Americas.
Americas are bookended and isolated by two huge oceans. Even nowadays, if you want to export/import stuff with Americas, long-distance and long-time transportation is something that you always have to consider. In contrast, nations in Europe or Asia are close together. Everything is literally at their doorstep. Think about moving around among various nations in Europe and Asia.
In fact, this is what China is attempting to do: connecting Europe and asia into one with the new Silk Road. Transporting goods using trains is a lot cheaper and faster than using ships.
In the modern world It costs less to ship something by boat 10000 miles than to move it by land 200 miles.
The theory of latitude barrier and longitude pathway to migration and commerce does not apply in the Industrial Age.
The theory of latitude barrier and longitude pathway to migration and commerce does not apply in the Industrial Age.
Blackstone
Brigadier
US could keep it up for a spell, but the end is already on the horizon. The game now is for US to peacefully accommodate China, while maintaining a strong presence in Asia, no longer as the hegemon, but primus inter pares with China.
The neoliberals already bankrupt US's capability to wage war against a regional power such as Russia by bailing out Wall Street and those in power probably have too much vested personnel interest intertwined with China anyways, just look at Ivanka Trump always try to kiss ass by making her daughter singing in Chinese. The US Military Industrial Complex is build on denying it's people basic public services just look at it's healthcare education and infrastructure. The American people are tired of supporting deadbeat Warhawks we will probably see the US politics gradually shifting towards moderate progressive socialist spectrum maybe Elizabeth Warren in 2020 and finally Bernie Sanders in 2024 by then the MIC will replaced by a Healthcare Industrial Complex making paradigm shift from aircraft carrier to a healthcare carrier, the world is already tired of the only manufactured goods made in USA are only bombs after it atrophied it's own manufacturing capacity by outsourcing jobs