CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Is it possible Chinese naval power could pass American naval power globally in the next 50 years? Yes, it's possible, because China's economy would be much larger in market exchange rates. But, is it probable (>50%)? I strongly doubt it. I fact, I don't believe it'll happen this Century, and for a variety of reasons, maybe not ever.

According actual shipbuilding plans ofc less sure for China ( not disponible ofc ) with all their mysteries but not new they do it since almost always :rolleyes: not before 2050 surely have a more numerous Fleet especialy Coastal Corvettes etc... but less of big units, USN despite a logic decrease after Cold War had a very big lead.

Even an USSR spending many money 30 % of GDP for military complex, budget 15 % .. !!!! comparing GDP cost double to the USSR than USA ! and we have see the end... Gorshkov's Navy was close in end 1980' s but 2nd with less powerful ships in general qualtiy inferior and also a much more low readiness rate for Soviet vessels.

And despite fans think... " we can not go faster than music "
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Nitpick, USN from what I understand has 22 active Ticos and 62 active Burkes, making 84 Aegis ships.

And given the USN's plans for Flight III Burkes as replacements for Ticos as they near retirement age the overall number of Aegis ships may start to approach 100 and might even briefly peak above it, but that also will depend how quickly Ticos are retired in the 2020s.


Either way, the USN doesn't have quite that many aegis ships, definitely not over 100.
Well, there 67 Burkes launched right now, and 22 Ticos...so that's 89. The number will be at 95 (with the Burke IIas still building before the first flight II is completed. I expect it will rise to over 100 in the 2020s.

So, yes, there are not 100 now...but they will get there.

My point is that there is no plan, that I have ever heard of, for the PLAN to build cumulativly that many Tupe 052Ds and Type 055s...not even half that many.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
And out of the 84 units as it stands 33 have BMD

Within NATO Spain and land based system also has AEGIS
Of course, if you add US Allies, then you have Spain with six, Australia with 3, Japan with six and going to eight, Korea with three and going to six, etc.

so with the US and its allies there are well over 100 AEGIS vessels right now.

But my original statement was not correct because they are at 89 launched right now for the US, and will be at 95 withhin 3 years when the Bukre IIIs start coming out.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Well...too much can happen to extend it out indefinitely, one way or the other.

But short of some cataclysm (which if it knocked the US so far down would undoubtedly knock all the industrialized nations down), I do not see it happening, or even being planned for 2060.

That was my point.


China may become comparatively a very rich country in 50 years or so be able to, if she chose, to afford a navy comparable to the premier naval power in the world.


But if
Well, there 67 Burkes launched right now, and 22 Ticos...so that's 89. The number will be at 95 (with the Burke IIas still building before the first flight II is completed. I expect it will rise to over 100 in the 2020s.

So, yes, there are not 100 now...but they will get there.

My point is that there is no plan, that I have ever heard of, for the PLAN to build cumulativly that many Tupe 052Ds and Type 055s...not even half that many.

It would be quite out of character, and also quite stupid, for a one carrier navy to announce plans to one day challenge the customary leading naval power regardless of its economic potentials

Imperial Germany did something like this in 1898, as a result it found the hitherto neutral Great Britain entering into alliance against it and redoubling efforts to maintain naval superiority against it. This directly led to Germany losing WWI
 

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Of course, if you add US Allies, then you have Spain with six, Australia with 3, Japan with six and going to eight, Korea with three and going to six, etc.

so with the US and its allies there are well over 100 AEGIS vessels right now.

But my original statement was not correct because they are at 89 launched right now for the US, and will be at 95 withhin 3 years when the Bukre IIIs start coming out.
Now 85 with the Zumwalt and all new 7 AB Fl IIA ( 11 in order + 3 Fl III ) + 2 Zumwalt in addition up to 2020 so 94 after normaly each year 1 Ticonderoga retired so each year +1 MSC eventualy + 2 if the bugdet is more big, AB have a service life of 35 years so no retired before 2025.

33 BMD all the AB Fl I/II : 28 + 5 Ticonderoga for others in service it is not planned a ABM modernisation only new build capable.
 
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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Well, there 67 Burkes launched right now, and 22 Ticos...so that's 89. The number will be at 95 (with the Burke IIas still building before the first flight II is completed. I expect it will rise to over 100 in the 2020s.

So, yes, there are not 100 now...but they will get there.

My point is that there is no plan, that I have ever heard of, for the PLAN to build cumulativly that many Tupe 052Ds and Type 055s...not even half that many.

Well, you wrote "The US has over 100 AEGIS class vessels...and is building more."

There's quite a difference between that and "The US will/may eventually have over 100 aegis class vessels"...


As for the Chinese Navy... we shall see. As dingyibvs and others have said, it's a matter of looking how requirements and growth may occur over multiple decades ahead rather than only a few years ahead.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Now 85 with the Zumwalt and all new 7 AB Fl IIA ( 11 in order + 3 Fl III ) + 2 Zumwalt in addition up to 2020 so 94 after normaly each year 1 Ticonderoga retired so each year +1 MSC eventualy + 2 if the bugdet is more big, AB have a service life of 35 years so no retired before 2025.

33 BMD all the AB Fl I/II : 28 + 5 Ticonderoga for others in service it is not planned a ABM modernisation only new build capable.
What the US has now and what it can actually afford now are two entirely different things. The US deficit last year was $587 billion. More than half of US discretionary spending is military, so cutting half out of $587 billion is about $295 billion. That's about half of what the US spends every year on the military. That means what the US can ACTUALLY afford to spend without having to borrow from our kids and grandkids is enough to fund 6 carriers, 43 Aegis warships, 25 attack subs, and 7 SSBNs.
 
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