CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Actually, INS Vishal will probably only enter service in the early 2030s.
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If they really want INS Vishal to enter service by 2025 then tbh they should have begun module fabrication by now, which of course would require having finalized a design with subsystems settled -- but at this point they do not seem to have even settled on a clear set of requirements let alone a design.


And INS Vikrant will probably only enter service in the early 2020s.


So IN by 2030s will probably fit what you described quite accurately in your post for them for 2025 -- but what will the Chinese Navy look like by the 2030s?


Assuming both navies built their carriers as parts of balanced task forces expected to undergo frequent deployments and experience high utilization rates, as oppose to prestige harbor queens, then In the long run, it would probably be the rate at which each navy can build a complete carrier escort screen with reserves, plus a matching underway replenishment capacity, that will be the bottleneck in how fast each can effectively add new carriers to their fleets. I think china has demonstrated the ability to build a new carrier screen every 3-4 years. This suggests she could add 2.5 carriers per decade to her fleet for some time.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Actually, INS Vishal will probably only enter service in the early 2030s.
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If they really want INS Vishal to enter service by 2025 then tbh they should have begun module fabrication by now, which of course would require having finalized a design with subsystems settled -- but at this point they do not seem to have even settled on a clear set of requirements let alone a design.


And INS Vikrant will probably only enter service in the early 2020s.


So IN by 2030s will probably fit what you described quite accurately in your post for them for 2025 -- but what will the Chinese Navy look like by the 2030s?

The article you've posted points out that the IN has already decided on the vessel's components & specifications. The 2030 date seems to be based off the worst-case scenario, i.e. in which India would have to develop a shipborne nuclear reactor from scratch and that the project would be susceptible to delays stemming from the Vikrant program. As the Diplomat has pointed out, the Vishal could potentially use one of three options for its propulsion: (1) develop a reactor with the United States (most likely Westinghouse), (2) scale up the reactors used by the Arihant, and (3) navalize one of its commercial reactors.

Additionally, we do not know which shipyard the Vishal would be built at (either Cochin or Mazagon), so it might not actually be affected by the Vikrant program.

Back on topic: the Chinese should find ways to maintain their current lead in light of naval expansion programs by both the Indian and Royal navies.
 

P5678

New Member
Registered Member
IN by 2025:
- 1 x Vishaal class CVN (nuclear-powered, EMALS) - 55 aircraft complement
- 1 x Vikrant class CV (conventional, STOBAR) - 30 aircraft complement
- 1 x Vikramaditya class CV (conventional, STOBAR) - 36 aircraft complement
- Air wing of Tejas, MiG-29Ks, & possibly Rafales
- Helicopter complement of Ka-28, Ka-31, Sea King, & Dhruv

PLAN by 2025:
- 1 x Type 002 class CV (conventional, CATOBAR) - 80 aircraft complement
- 1 x Type 001A class CV (conventional, STOBAR) - 36 aircraft complement
- 1 x Type 001 class CV (conventional, STOBAR) - 36 aircraft complement
- Air wing of J-15, J-15A, & possibly FC-31 (or J-20)
- Helicopter complement of Ka-28, Ka-31, Z-9, Z-18, Z-20

The IN would have a small but noticeable lead in the next decade in terms of naval air projection. It is advisable for the Chinese to invest in newer aircraft to offset the gap or to curb their behavior in the IOR.

Don't understand why you made this comparison, what do you really get from it?
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
IN by 2025:
- 1 x Vishaal class CVN (nuclear-powered, EMALS) - 55 aircraft complement
- 1 x Vikrant class CV (conventional, STOBAR) - 30 aircraft complement
- 1 x Vikramaditya class CV (conventional, STOBAR) - 36 aircraft complement
- Air wing of Tejas, MiG-29Ks, & possibly Rafales
- Helicopter complement of Ka-28, Ka-31, Sea King, & Dhruv

PLAN by 2025:
- 1 x Type 002 class CV (conventional, CATOBAR) - 80 aircraft complement
- 1 x Type 001A class CV (conventional, STOBAR) - 36 aircraft complement
- 1 x Type 001 class CV (conventional, STOBAR) - 36 aircraft complement
- Air wing of J-15, J-15A, & possibly FC-31 (or J-20)
- Helicopter complement of Ka-28, Ka-31, Z-9, Z-18, Z-20

The IN would have a small but noticeable lead in the next decade in terms of naval air projection. It is advisable for the Chinese to invest in newer aircraft to offset the gap or to curb their behavior in the IOR.
Airwings consisting of navalized Tejas will be automatic losses in modern combat. I'm just being honest here. :)
 

vesicles

Colonel
The article you've posted points out that the IN has already decided on the vessel's components & specifications. The 2030 date seems to be based off the worst-case scenario, i.e. in which India would have to develop a shipborne nuclear reactor from scratch and that the project would be susceptible to delays stemming from the Vikrant program. As the Diplomat has pointed out, the Vishal could potentially use one of three options for its propulsion: (1) develop a reactor with the United States (most likely Westinghouse), (2) scale up the reactors used by the Arihant, and (3) navalize one of its commercial reactors.

Additionally, we do not know which shipyard the Vishal would be built at (either Cochin or Mazagon), so it might not actually be affected by the Vikrant program.

Back on topic: the Chinese should find ways to maintain their current lead in light of naval expansion programs by both the Indian and Royal navies.

It's not so much about what the Indians plan to do but how they go about doing it. They have the tendency to always look so much ahead but not watching their two feet, and so constantly tripping themselves. So lofty goals, but always missing the mark.

Instead, they should pay more attention to the fundamentals. The basic stuff is never sexy and never shiny. But you need the basic stuff to establish the foundation. A solid foundation is everything. It may start out slow, so slow that many may question what you have been doing. However, once that solid, silent and boring foundation is set, everything goes up smooth and fast. On the other hand, if you are so impatient and want to ignore the basics, it's building a foundation using dirt and weed. You may build the first couple floors fast. But then your building keeps collapsing and you keep doing one step forward but two steps back. I think this is what is happening to many Indian's weapons programs. That's why many simply don't have faith in them in their ability to finish any big programs.

One day when the Indians decide to pay more attention to the basics, that's the day when they can do anything that they set out to do. But that means becoming boring and mundane. I will begin to cheer for the Indians and have faith in them when they suddenly become quiet and start building roads, highways and bridges. That's the day when they finally understand what it takes to build a program.

Take China for example. They set up a goal to land on the moon. Instead of declaring to the world that they would do it a 5 years, they started out with testing small rockets, a slightly bigger rocket, then a little bigger rockets, then a big rocket, then still bigger rocket. After all these rockets, you would think they would begin the moon mission. Nope! They sent a little satellite to the moon. Then they sent a little bigger satellite to the moon. Then they put the space station in space. After all these, you would think they would begin the moon mission. Nope! They set a schedule to start a man-mission to the moon in...... drum rolls... 2050's... it sounds so boring. It does. I get bored even reading about it. But that's what it takes to methodically develop a program, setting a solid foundation, which will benefit all kinds of programs in the future.

This has nothing to do with Indian people and Indian culture. It has everything to do with how the Indian government operates. Their philosophy. And it needs to change. And once they change, the sky is the limit.
 

mr.bean

Junior Member
It's not so much about what the Indians plan to do but how they go about doing it. They have the tendency to always look so much ahead but not watching their two feet, and so constantly tripping themselves. So lofty goals, but always missing the mark.

Instead, they should pay more attention to the fundamentals. The basic stuff is never sexy and never shiny. But you need the basic stuff to establish the foundation. A solid foundation is everything. It may start out slow, so slow that many may question what you have been doing. However, once that solid, silent and boring foundation is set, everything goes up smooth and fast. On the other hand, if you are so impatient and want to ignore the basics, it's building a foundation using dirt and weed. You may build the first couple floors fast. But then your building keeps collapsing and you keep doing one step forward but two steps back. I think this is what is happening to many Indian's weapons programs. That's why many simply don't have faith in them in their ability to finish any big programs.

One day when the Indians decide to pay more attention to the basics, that's the day when they can do anything that they set out to do. But that means becoming boring and mundane. I will begin to cheer for the Indians and have faith in them when they suddenly become quiet and start building roads, highways and bridges. That's the day when they finally understand what it takes to build a program.

Take China for example. They set up a goal to land on the moon. Instead of declaring to the world that they would do it a 5 years, they started out with testing small rockets, a slightly bigger rocket, then a little bigger rockets, then a big rocket, then still bigger rocket. After all these rockets, you would think they would begin the moon mission. Nope! They sent a little satellite to the moon. Then they sent a little bigger satellite to the moon. Then they put the space station in space. After all these, you would think they would begin the moon mission. Nope! They set a schedule to start a man-mission to the moon in...... drum rolls... 2050's... it sounds so boring. It does. I get bored even reading about it. But that's what it takes to methodically develop a program, setting a solid foundation, which will benefit all kinds of programs in the future.

This has nothing to do with Indian people and Indian culture. It has everything to do with how the Indian government operates. Their philosophy. And it needs to change. And once they change, the sky is the limit.

the difference between the two is, one is all talk and no action while the other keep it's mouth shut and just work on it.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
the difference between the two is, one is all talk and no action while the other keep it's mouth shut and just work on it.
Not necessarily at all.

The INdian Navy has the Virkamaditya operational...the chinese have the Liaoning operationl.

The Indian Navy launched their 1st indegenous carrier, the Vikrant. The Chinese are about to launch their first indegenous carrier, CV-17.

So both are actually doing things, and in similar time fames to date.

Now I think the Vikrant will probably end up going to sea abut the same time as the CV-17, even though it launched far earlier. And I think it is likely that the Chinese CV-17 will commission first...but not too far ahead of the Vikrant.

On the 3rd carrier I thin we shall see the Chinese take the lead in building, launching, and commissioning it before th INdian 3rd carrier.

So, while it is true that the Chinese yards, once they are geared up, produce these large vessels faster than the Indians, it is not at all true that the INdians are "all talk" and the Chiense just go and do things.

As I say, right now the INdians have tow carriers in the water. One is commissioned and operational.

The Chinese will not have their second carrier in the water until probably next week or so.

So they are both "doing."
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Anything involving "Tejas" is big warning sign. What's the status of the AF Tejas, let alone naval Tejas?
The IAF doesn't want the Tejas, the IN doesn't want the Tejas, and both for good reason. This plane is a failure of epic proportions that the Indian military is being forced to accept for political rather than military reasons. The only people who actually want this plane are Indian politicians and Indian nationalists.
 
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