I'm saying we have no reason right now to be able to reasonably talk about the CVN (004) being launched in 2025.
If by 004 you mean the sister ship of 003,yes it definitely would be launched in/before 2025,if you mean the next generation CV/CVN ,that would be later for surePutting it another way -- "estimating" the CVN/004 to be launched in 2025 is not a reasonable estimate at this stage.
None of the information and expected indicators suggest that we can expect the CVN to be launched in 2025.
"Big calls" means "making predictions and expectations that are as of yet unsubstantiated".