CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[Iron Man]

Woah. So we're talking a big structure then. If this is real, would this supposed to be CV-002 or CV-003? (Rhetorical question, but had to be asked).

Depends on what you mean by 002 and 003. Because your 002 could be my 001B, and your 003 could be my 002. This is why using class designators is far more likely to cause confusion than using hull designators. When someone says CV-18 or CV-19, everyone knows exactly what carrier that person is referring to. When someone says 002 or 003, then who knows because class designation (at least at this point) is purely a matter of individual opinion.

China's 1st carrier: CV-16; 001
China's 2nd carrier: CV-17; 001A?
China's 3rd carrier: CV-18; 001B? 002?
China's 4th carrier: CV-19; 002? 003?

This latest mockup IMO represents China's 3rd carrier, but it is not different enough from the first 2 carriers to definitively warrant its own class designation. The flight deck is a little different, but it's not easy to tell whether it actually is different in every detail intentionally or because the mockup doesn't need to be very precise in certain details, and so fudged in some places (especially the corners/sponsons) which we then mistakenly take to be actual differences. It's simply too early to tell.

 

[Jeff Head]

Depends on what you mean by 002 and 003. Because your 002 could be my 001B, and your 003 could be my 002. This is why using class designators is far more likely to cause confusion than using hull designators. When someone says CV-18 or CV-19, everyone knows exactly what carrier that person is referring to. When someone says 002 or 003, then who knows because class designation (at least at this point) is purely a matter of individual opinion.

China's 1st carrier: CV-16; 001
China's 2nd carrier: CV-17; 001A?
China's 3rd carrier: CV-18; 001B? 002?
China's 4th carrier: CV-19; 002? 003?

I believe here on SD, the current consensus is (and it could be proven wrong) is that 002 is going to be CATOBAR carrier. This makes it a new class.

This new thing at Wuhan looks CATOBAR and therefore has been referred to as 002.

We may find we are wrong, but right now, after years of analyzing, listening to all of the chatter, and coming up with what seems like the most likely scenario, ours goes something like this:

1st-CV-16, Liaoning, 001 STOBAR, old Varyag, part of Kuznetsov class
2nd-CV-17, Unknown, 001A STOBAR, 1st Chinese indigenous and their improved Kuznetsov class
3rd-CV-18, Unknown, 002 Chinese conventionally powered CATOBAR design
4th-CV-19, Unknown, 002A potential second conventional CATOBAR carrier
5th-CV-20, Unknown, 003, First Chinese CTAOBAR Nuclear carrier.

I think the first two are pretty much set in stone.

CV-17 was commissioned in 2012
CV-17 looks like a 2017 launch
CV-18, the 1st CATOBAR in this scenario would launch probably in the 2021 time frame...it is thought to already have started initial construction.

So, the 2nd conventional CATOBAR would be in the mid-2020s, and if we are correct in this surmise, the 1st nuclear would be in the late 2020s to be launched as their 5th carrier.

I am pretty confidant about 002 and logic dictates, after years of Chinese observing, that there will probably be a second one of those.

So, it will probably come down to if they make the jump to nuclear power after the second conventional CATOBAR, or after the 1st. As I say, current logic, based on years of observations says they will have two of the conventional CATOBAR carriers. If they go directly tpo nuclear after the first, then this schedule is impacted accordingly.

 

[FORBIN]

I believe here on SD, the current consensus is (and it could be proven wrong) is that 002 is going to be CATOBAR carrier. This makes it a new class.

This new thing at Wuhan looks CATOBAR and therefore has been referred to as 002.

We may find we are wrong, but right now, after years of analyzing, listening to all of the chatter, and coming up with what seems like the most likely scenario, ours goes something like this:

1st-CV-16, Liaoning, 001 STOBAR, old Varyag, part of Kuznetsov class
2nd-CV-17, Unknown, 001A STOBAR, 1st Chinese indigenous and their improved Kuznetsov class
3rd-CV-18, Unknown, 002 Chinese conventionally powered CATOBAR design
4th-CV-19, Unknown, 002A potential second conventional CATOBAR carrier
5th-CV-20, Unknown, 003, First Chinese CTAOBAR Nuclear carrier.

002 with Ulianovsk design and size possible, electric power, after rail or lasers guns
possible elevator for host 2 J-15 vs one for Liaonong more large.

I get 003 in 4th, CVN of 100000 t design close Ford 100000 t possible they get infos...can help...

Witout going in many many years... they have plans for 4 CV

 

[Jeff Head]

Witout going in many many years... they have plans for 4 CV

I personally believe they will end up building six.

We shall see...time will tell.

 

[Intrepid]

1st-CV-16, Liaoning, 001 STOBAR, old Varyag, part of Kuznetsov class
2nd-CV-17, Unknown, 001A STOBAR, 1st Chinese indigenous and their improved Kuznetsov class
3rd-CV-18, Unknown, 002 Chinese conventionally powered CATOBAR design
4th-CV-19, Unknown, 002A potential second conventional CATOBAR carrier
5th-CV-20, Unknown, 003, First Chinese CTAOBAR Nuclear carrier.

We saw the demo-module with a catapult track, we saw the catapult test facility at Huludao, we saw the first J-15 with catapult-nose-gear, we saw the enlarged PriFly in Wuhan, we noticed the dismonted ski jump in Wuhan, we saw several pictures, artists impressions and modells of a Ulianovsk-type carrier, we saw early warning aircraft. That was enough stuff to think of a new chinese carrier project larger than Liaoning called 002 and expected to be build in Shanghai.

We saw an unknown carrier mock up in Liaoning-shape, we heard that the catapult development slowes down, China has experience in building Liaoning-type carriers. That was new stuff to think of more than two Liaoning-type carriers to be build in Dalian with minor changes to 001A, so should be called 001B.

 

[Jeff Head]

We saw the demo-module with a catapult track, we saw the catapult test facility at Huludao, we saw the first J-15 with catapult-nose-gear, we saw the enlarged PriFly in Wuhan, we noticed the dismonted ski jump in Wuhan, we saw several pictures, artists impressions and modells of a Ulianovsk-type carrier, we saw early warning aircraft. That was enough stuff to think of a new chinese carrier project larger than Liaoning called 002 and expected to be build in Shanghai.

We saw an unknown carrier mock up in Liaoning-shape, we heard that the catapult development slowes down, China has experience in building Liaoning-type carriers. That was new stuff to think of more than two Liaoning-type carriers to be build in Dalian with minor changes to 001A, so should be called 001B.

I will be surprised if they build more than the two STOBAR carriers.

They know they need to move onto the CATOBAR carriers, and we have heard a lot of chatter that one has already started building, and now we see a mockup of a CATOBAR at Wuhan.

So...at least for right now, I am sticking with my own forecast above.

2 x STOBAR (Liaoning and 001B)
2 x Conventional CATOBAR (002)
2 x Nuclear CATOBAR (003)

But time will tell.

 

[Intrepid]

But time will tell.

If the next carrier we watch growing has a hull with same dimensions and anatomy as Liaoning and 001A, it is 001B. If it is even bigger, it is 002.

May be, we watch next year two carriers growing, one in the drydock in Dalian (next to 001A) and one in Shanghai.

 

[Blitzo]

We saw the demo-module with a catapult track, we saw the catapult test facility at Huludao, we saw the first J-15 with catapult-nose-gear, we saw the enlarged PriFly in Wuhan, we noticed the dismonted ski jump in Wuhan, we saw several pictures, artists impressions and modells of a Ulianovsk-type carrier, we saw early warning aircraft. That was enough stuff to think of a new chinese carrier project larger than Liaoning called 002 and expected to be build in Shanghai.

We saw an unknown carrier mock up in Liaoning-shape, we heard that the catapult development slowes down, China has experience in building Liaoning-type carriers. That was new stuff to think of more than two Liaoning-type carriers to be build in Dalian with minor changes to 001A, so should be called 001B.

Wait, where did we hear that? (bolded part)

And what "unknown carrier mock up in Liaoning shape" are you talking about? There's only been the single one at Wuhan, and it had already undergone some changes in previous years, before the ski jump got taken down, indicative that they're done with the ski jump mock up for whatever tests they're needing...


More importantly, there have been no credible rumours from the Chinese boards to suggest that there would be a second domestic STOBAR carrier to be built at Dalian, and the consensus remains that the second domestic carrier will be CATOBAR at Shanghai...

Speculation in PLA watching is all well and good, but it needs to jive with the credible rumours from the Chinese boards.

 

[Intrepid]

Wait, where did we hear that? (bolded part)

It was written approximately a month ago in this forum. I couldn't find it and will try again later.

And what "unknown carrier mock up in Liaoning shape" are you talking about?

This thread starts with a photo of a mock-up, that isn't the well known mock-up in Wuhan. May be, it is photoshoped and not real, but it is not Wuhan.

 

[Blitzo]

It was written approximately a month ago in this forum. I couldn't find it and will try again later.

Okay.
Though I will say I do not remember such a post, and I haven't heard of anything related to the catapult programme "slowing down" from anywhere else either.

This thread starts with a photo of a mock-up, that isn't the well known mock-up in Wuhan. May be, it is photoshoped and not real, but it is not Wuhan.

Err, this mock up is a pretty generic carrier's shape, I'm not sure why the first port of call is to think it is somehow supportive of a "001B" theory.



Either way, I think you're really reaching with your conclusion in your last post; many of the premises are not true or very dubious at best, and more importantly they don't jive with the most recent info we have from the Chinese boards.
Who knows, maybe 002 will turn out to be closer in size to Liaoning, but right now I see no reason or suggestions that we should call it anything else other than 002 (apart from CV-18), and the consensus remains that 002 is the second domestic carrier, to be built at JNCX, and that it is a conventional CATOBAR carrier.