The figure of 3500 MIA came to my attention via the main Russian media and was attributed to the Ukrainian ministry of Defence. Russian media have also carried a number of estimates released from the Novorossiyan side, but all have not been "verified". I was actually asking if those that monitor the Ukrainian and pro Kiev net in Eastern Europe have read anything similar from official sources.
My own opinion is that I think the figure is credible. I base this simply on the scale of destruction that the Ukrainian military has suffered and clearly KIA of 500 would be miraculous. I have only posted none graphic pictures and videos to this site, but there are many others that clearly show that these were not slow burns or spiked vehicles from retreating forces. Simply noting the state of the corpses that were in none contained or of troops being carried externally, it is pretty clear that the full load of men inside will have been fully incinerated, leaving very little but the most forensic of traces.
The other aspect of course if the scale and intensity of the fighting. Literally if the official KIA figure was correct, the Blue and Yellow flag would be flying from the centres of Donetsk and Lughansk and would have been for some time. 500 KIA really boils down to a fighting vehicle being destroyed per day somewhere along the whole active front lines. So what are we being asked to believe, that a Ukrainian soldier gets hurt somewhere and the entire war stops on account of it?
Irrespective of whether people view it a merely propaganda or not, the Novorossiya militia have produced large quantities of footage, showing militia advancing into territory littered with wrecked Ukrainian vehicles, large numbers of corpses and a fair number of prisoners. What I do not see is anything similar; let alone comparable, put out by the Ukrainian side. There is only one logical conclusion to draw from this.
In that sense yesterdays pantomime about a destroyed Russian column looks like Kiev so desperate for "good news" that it is having to make it up on the weakest of pretexts. I can only reiterate, that if the formations of the military of the Russian Formations had indeed joined the war, we would not be having to ask if it had happened or not!
On a more general note. There is also quite a bit on the changes at the top in both DPR and LPR this last week (inc Strelkov). The point being made again and again is that behind the fog of war, the crisis in Ukraine still boils down to machinations and manoeuvres of rival oligarchs on both sides. While warriors like Strelkov were viewed as the War Party, Oligarchs in the region are being touted as the "Deal" party.
The suggestion being made is that the changes represent a resurgance of the deal party and that the failure of Kiev to win the war is forcing them to the negotiating table.
Which side does Putin favour? Well I would say both, viewing them as the Carrot and the Stick.
I see it as credible that the combination of poor Ukrainian military performance, the very real threat of the aid convoy signifying Russia's preparedness to enter the conflict and a lot of pressure from the EU and other outside interests to stop the fighting and normalise relations and business again, will be forcing people to the negotiating table, more urgently now than over the last couple of months.
