Crisis in the Ukraine
- Thread starter bd popeye
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My Dutch newspaper carries an article today that says many members of parliament are frustrated by the fact that the Dutch "police" expedition is unable to reach the crash site to recover human remains and the possessions of the people on board MH17 because of the fighting in the area. But the foreign minister Timmermans "warned" that they shouldn't blame the Ukrainian government because "the situation is already sufficiently complex".
Anti whose mobilization?
I think one side or the other or both are just humoring moderates and playing for PR points and/or time. The situation on the ground in eastern Ukraine may not be totally clear but on the strategic level Russia is steadily losing with muted to non-existent support from third parties, facing escalating sanctions and very vigorous and incessant diplomatic and PR attacks across the board.
The mobilization declared by the government. The regime has in large parts of the country very little support.
This comes under the heading of so crazy it could just be true. It is also one of the stories that I have been watching for to see if it breaks.
Well it has not "broken" in the true sense, but several versions are doing the rounds and each could be in fact an understanding of part of the story.
It started with this CNN broadcast yesterday
[video=youtube_share;y9-8KvtfjZA]http://youtu.be/y9-8KvtfjZA[/video]
It is a report about the Ukrainian government firing up to four SS21 SRBM's into the combat zone of Eastern Ukraine yesterday.
The CNN report gives a general viewpoint and one which covers the main aspects of firing four such conventionally armed rockets at militia positions. The key point being that it represents an undoubted escalation.
There have been references to these rockets in the official Russian media, but not much. It is then at this point worth noting that if the story is indeed about the firing of four conventional warheads, it is a deal but not necessarily that big and an SU25 can easily deliver a bomb pay load of equal size and better accuracy.
Is this however the limit of the story?
Not according to the unofficial media.
In the rest of the versions, one factor comes through loud and clear and is probably wholly credible - That Russia when it detected the rocket launches were not prepared to assume that the payloads were conventional, but were armed with either chemical or biological weapons.
There are a variety of targets discussed, but the most popular are either militia positions around the Southern Cauldron and intended to blow a whole through which the trapped battalions could escape, the other; far more sinister, that the trapped Ukrainian troops were the target, to create a false flag that would blame either the militia or the Russians themselves. Other less popular versions have the targets being militia C&C facilities in Donetsk.
Two other aspect of the story are also consistent.
1) As the missile launches were detected, RF units near the Ukrainian border started to advance rapidly
2) That all four missiles were intercepted by Russian Defence systems (presumably S-300) at which point the ground force advance stopped.
How much truth is their in any of this, I really do not know and nothing is verified. What does lend the story credibility are the implications of Russia assuming a WMD attack close too and maybe even passing across its borders and the retaliatory posture that Russia would have responded with.
Is is simply coincidence that there is suddenly a diplomatic upsurge and an out of the blue Cease Fire summit in Minsk tomorrow? (The summit story did emerge after the various missile stories and not the other way round).
Guess unless something more does become public, you will just have to make up your minds as to whether we have just had one the most perilous moments since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Well it has not "broken" in the true sense, but several versions are doing the rounds and each could be in fact an understanding of part of the story.
It started with this CNN broadcast yesterday
[video=youtube_share;y9-8KvtfjZA]http://youtu.be/y9-8KvtfjZA[/video]
It is a report about the Ukrainian government firing up to four SS21 SRBM's into the combat zone of Eastern Ukraine yesterday.
The CNN report gives a general viewpoint and one which covers the main aspects of firing four such conventionally armed rockets at militia positions. The key point being that it represents an undoubted escalation.
There have been references to these rockets in the official Russian media, but not much. It is then at this point worth noting that if the story is indeed about the firing of four conventional warheads, it is a deal but not necessarily that big and an SU25 can easily deliver a bomb pay load of equal size and better accuracy.
Is this however the limit of the story?
Not according to the unofficial media.
In the rest of the versions, one factor comes through loud and clear and is probably wholly credible - That Russia when it detected the rocket launches were not prepared to assume that the payloads were conventional, but were armed with either chemical or biological weapons.
There are a variety of targets discussed, but the most popular are either militia positions around the Southern Cauldron and intended to blow a whole through which the trapped battalions could escape, the other; far more sinister, that the trapped Ukrainian troops were the target, to create a false flag that would blame either the militia or the Russians themselves. Other less popular versions have the targets being militia C&C facilities in Donetsk.
Two other aspect of the story are also consistent.
1) As the missile launches were detected, RF units near the Ukrainian border started to advance rapidly
2) That all four missiles were intercepted by Russian Defence systems (presumably S-300) at which point the ground force advance stopped.
How much truth is their in any of this, I really do not know and nothing is verified. What does lend the story credibility are the implications of Russia assuming a WMD attack close too and maybe even passing across its borders and the retaliatory posture that Russia would have responded with.
Is is simply coincidence that there is suddenly a diplomatic upsurge and an out of the blue Cease Fire summit in Minsk tomorrow? (The summit story did emerge after the various missile stories and not the other way round).
Guess unless something more does become public, you will just have to make up your minds as to whether we have just had one the most perilous moments since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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Sampan, IMHO, you should have stopped right there with a sentence indicating that there is speculations and rumor that there could have been different warheads. Instead....
Samapan said:
This is absolute rumour and pure sepeculation, which you own post indicates.
But, because it is here on SD, and because as a Super Mod you posted it, it will surely be passed on as somehow likely and credible because a Super Moderators on SD posted it and gave it credence.
IMHO, we really need to be more careful. I would not post something as volatile as this until after a very credible source verifies it.
Just my two cents and thoughts.
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All very true Jeff but........... and unlike the mountain of unverified claims that are generated by this story on all sides every day, I have a sense that there is real substance to some central elements of the story.
Critically (and assuming that any SS 21 missiles were fired at all):
Russia will assume that any Ballistic missile launch in its direction is a WMD attack and will respond in the appropriate manner. How else really does the firing of these weapons otherwise stack up as an escalation. It can only be based on the possible interpretation of the nature of the attack. Otherwise if the assumption is purely conventional, then it is merely a long range 1 tonne bomb.
If Russia does indeed assume a Ballistic missile launch is WMD by default, declaring a red alert on the border and firing inceptor missiles at the incoming is again a credible response
The icing on the cake is however, the very real, wholly verified and hastily arranged, Minsk Cease Fire summit.
Something out there over the last 24 hours has given those involved a very rude shake and this story is the only thing that comes anywhere close to being capable of doing it. It is the smoke of the story that needs an appropriately sized fire.
The various details of the different versions are of course froth and nothing in my original post would give anyone any reason to suppose anything else. I also credit the vast majority of forum members of being able to differentiate without difficulty.
I do concede though that it was a very contentious story and I waited a long time before making a judgement call. My judgement remains that there is just enough to warrant its inclusion and expect more details to break properly over the next few days.
Some items from Tass on some of the diplomatic manoeuvres of the day
Details of tomorrows summit in Minsk
Russian FM Lavrov castigates US UK and Lithuania for blocking a Russian proposed statement calling on all parties to the respect the cease fire around MH17 as per UN resolution 2166. He also offers to send Russian Peace Keepers to secure the site
Staying with the UN, Vitaly Churkin accuses the Ukrainians of trying to capture the MH17 crash site and wishing to destroy evidence of its culpability for the crash.
Finally via Colonel Cassad - a summary of the recent official reports from the LPR and DPR militia leaders and a version of the last weeks combat from their perspective, produced by M.V. Litvinov
Details of tomorrows summit in Minsk
Russian FM Lavrov castigates US UK and Lithuania for blocking a Russian proposed statement calling on all parties to the respect the cease fire around MH17 as per UN resolution 2166. He also offers to send Russian Peace Keepers to secure the site
Staying with the UN, Vitaly Churkin accuses the Ukrainians of trying to capture the MH17 crash site and wishing to destroy evidence of its culpability for the crash.
Finally via Colonel Cassad - a summary of the recent official reports from the LPR and DPR militia leaders and a version of the last weeks combat from their perspective, produced by M.V. Litvinov
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