Thanks for the video link Sampan. That explains why Dutch investigation teams are not on site yet.
Crisis in the Ukraine
- Thread starter bd popeye
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Thanks for the video link Sampan. That explains why Dutch investigation teams are not on site yet.
MwRYum
Major
Alright, can anyone enlighten me of the current developments and their roles in the grander scheme of things:
Ukraine government forces' siege on Donetsk
MH17 shotdown
3 Ukraine government brigade-sized formations besieged (some said at least one has been wiped out) at the Ukraine-Russian border
Ukraine government forces' siege on Donetsk
MH17 shotdown
3 Ukraine government brigade-sized formations besieged (some said at least one has been wiped out) at the Ukraine-Russian border
I will do my best.
Roughly you have two fronts a North Front and a Southern.
The North Front is the Main Front and runs from the City of Donetsk, forms a spike around a number of cities to the North, runs by the City of Lugansk and then heads East to the Russian Border.
On this front, the militia are on a genrally defensive posture and the Ukrainians on an offensive.
The South Front was cut back in June when three Brigades started a move to along the Russian/Donetsk border with the intention of cutting along the rear of both the break away provinces, thus isolating the militia from the Russian border. That offensive failed and the militia closed the door behind them and the trapped brigades are now spread out and isolated even from each other in an extended pocket that is being rapidly shrunk on a daily basis.
The North Front is a fairly fluid affair with the Ukrainian forces putting the northern "spike" between Donetsk and Lugansk under very significant pressure. The Ukrainians have the advantage in manpower and heavy weapons, but lack in experience and morale. This means that across the front, the Ukrainians are able to mass assault and that the militia are forced to retreat. The Ukrainians however seem to take very heavily casualties in these assaults, plus are easily panicked and quickly descend into disorder. At this point the militia are able to launch hit and run and sabotage missions, which chase out remaining units from the relinquished areas, so that they are able to move back in and reoccupy.
This means that many of the towns and suburbs, including areas around the Airports in Donetsk and Lugansk which are also under Ukrainian control, change hands quite regularly. Its a bit like the tide going in and out again, although to be honest, each Ukrainian high tide seems a little higher than the last.
The key then for the militia is to finish off the Southern Front as quickly as possible and news that humanitarian corridors are being created, so that the trapped Brigades can surrender to the Russian Federation seem to be par for this course. This is because many of the best militia fighters and their heavy weapons are on this front, which is spreading the thin and which are badly needed to change the balance on the Northern Front.
What is happening on MH17 except a lot of disinformation? The site itself is under the control of the Berkat paramilitary police. There is fighting nearby, which seems to be from the Ukrainian side (no need for the rebels to fight on territory they control) and I wonder if this is troops from the Southern Front trying to break North to the Crash Site (which is not that far) rather than West along the front of the Cauldron.
The Investigators have not yet arrived and the reason for this seems to be that the Ukrainian government has not yet given permission for the mission to operate in Ukraine. Incredibly I know, but these are words of the leader of the mission on an interview on the BBC and link on this thread posted by your truly yesterday just a few posts above.
This itself raises the question about who can give that authority, as the last week the ruling Maidan coalition collapsed and Yatsenyuk resigned as Prime Minister, which meant the full dissolution of the Government.
In turn, raises questions about the ability of the Ukraine to maintain its economy and the military expedition, both of which are in a parlous state. More to the point, public disaffection with the whole business is growing rapidly, based on the failure to conclude, the sense that Kiev have been grossly underestimating his military casualties, general horror by the public over civilian casualties and outrage over the order to implenent a full conscription draft on all men of fighting age (again an indication of the campaign going belly up in the East).
I have seen a few videos of public anger against the war and conscription, this one has subtitles in English.
[video=youtube_share;J_R9-LCwd54]http://youtu.be/J_R9-LCwd54[/video]
broadsword
Brigadier
The UN's Navi Pillay said the downing of the Malaysia Airlines jet in eastern Ukraine may constitute a "war crime,". I think he has a disconnect with the situation.
The Dutch mission to the crash site of MH17 has this morning left Donetsk and has returned there because the road to the crash site was too dangerous because of the fighting. The ambition for the time being is only to recover the remaining bodies and body parts, not even to try to find evidence of what happened to the aircraft, but Kiev only gave permission when they could close the way with their offensive. I suppose they are trying to avoid being prosecuted for the war crime of shooting down MH17.
Today's edition of my Dutch newspaper NRC carries an interview with Sergej Karaganov. Among other things he is an adviser to president Putin.
He says he sees four scenarios: 1) Russia surrenders - that won't happen, 2) Russia invades the Donbass - this would be a second Afghanistan, 3) status quo - the fighting continues, Ukraine collapses, manipulation continues, 4) Russia declares a victory wrt Crimea, slowly leaves the Donbass taking the people with them and keeps the pressure on Kiev. He prefers 4) but expects 3). In both cases Ukraine has failed as a state, victimized by West and Russia. Ukraine is done for.
He says he sees four scenarios: 1) Russia surrenders - that won't happen, 2) Russia invades the Donbass - this would be a second Afghanistan, 3) status quo - the fighting continues, Ukraine collapses, manipulation continues, 4) Russia declares a victory wrt Crimea, slowly leaves the Donbass taking the people with them and keeps the pressure on Kiev. He prefers 4) but expects 3). In both cases Ukraine has failed as a state, victimized by West and Russia. Ukraine is done for.
It's unfortunate. But that's the harsh reality of proxy conflicts between great powers. Pawns mostly made of innocents are sacrificed for wealth, pride, influence and control.
Mr T
Senior Member
Sounds like KLM was trying to deflect (or pre-empt) criticism that it was putting profits over safety by claiming they had no idea flying over eastern Ukraine was dangerous.
Next thing you know they'll blame some international aviation/pilot authority for not telling them that pilots need to sleep and can't fly back-to-back flights with a single power-nap in between.
Ahem, Putin's advisor is suggesting his boss isn't going to listen to his advice? Then why hasn't he resigned yet?
Only explanation is that he's trying to play to the peacnik European media and encourage them to not back further sanctions - "my boss is crazy, there's no point you sacrificing the juicy deals he's offering you!"
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