Crisis in the Ukraine

[SampanViking]

some interesting documents

from 20.06.2014 to 20.07.2014 Ukrainian forces abandoned T-64 - 25, BTR - 11, 2S1 "Gvozdika" - 11, BM-21 "Grad" -12, D-30 Howitzer - 5, 82 mm mortar -16, Zu-23-2 - 2, trucks -5.
All of this cuptured by DNR and LNR forces
Source:

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You do need to be very careful with allegedly leaked or hacked documents from either side. There is a steady flow of these things and all need treating with caution as they are the kind of thing that form the backbone of disinformation in wartime.

As a guide, try and wait until an authoritative source is prepared to put its authority behind the claim. Its no guarantee that it is ultimately true, but you are at least presenting something that has rather more behind it than than the fantasies of a spotty adolescent in their bedroom.

Moving on to other things.

Unable to post new video or pictures today from the Southern Cauldron as those released in last 24 hours are just to graphic to show. Suffice to say, that these positions are not abandoned by the the Ukrainian forces when attacked and the remains of what used to be people are very evident when the rebels take control of the battlefield.

I will however comment that I was struck by the solemn dignity of the militia forces that were first on the scene. There was no triumphalism or gloating over the casualties. Instead the mood was sad and sombre and the men tried to move the still very hot human remains, with all the dignity that rough circumstances and very rudimentary equipment allowed.

Beyond this both blogospehere and the official Russian media are reporting that large numbers of Ukrainian troops are surrendering to Russian forces across the border. Blogospehere is claiming hundreds while the Russian Press claims up to 50 in the last 24 hours

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One thing though is worth a mention and that there is little doubt, that in this conflict, the Russian net as finally come of age, just as we saw the Chinese net emerge and rapidly mature in the late 90's and early naughties.
I say this as I see a lot of enthusiast, Russian, Russian descent and indeed none Russian spending a lot of time making serious efforts to cut through the froth and disinformation to try and achieve an image of the real truth on the ground. I obviously commend there efforts. I also think it is the hight of laziness when such people are just dismissed as Kremlin shills or stooges, when it is very obvious that they are not, any more than us here.

 

[delft]

With all due respect, all KLM had to do was pick up a newspaper or do a little simple research. The rebels also weren't hiding the fact they were shooting down Ukrainian aircraft. With Russia supplying equipment, it wouldn't take an experienced member of RUSI to figure out the rebels might get some dangerous SAMs.

I assume this means that KLM was still flying over Ukraine at the time?

The rumor ( at least ) was that the federalists captured missiles and launch equipment of this type several weeks ago. Supply from Russia wouldn't fit the overall policy of Moscow.

A KLM aircraft was within 30 km at the time of the incident. My Dutch newspaper gave a list of about thirty airlines flying through the area by policy, a list as long of airlines who said they avoided the area but several of which still flew through at least occasionally in the last two weeks.

 

[SampanViking]

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I cannot leave this without comment.
Once again we have reports of investigators unable to travel to the site, on account of nearby fighting.

This time it is shelling near the town of Grabove. Well Grabove is a militia held town and shelling towards it could only come from the Ukrainian side. This is also just the latest of events emanating from the Ukrainian side which have delayed and frustrated the investigation from virtually day one.

There is supposed to be cease fire for 40km around the crash site, so why are the Ukrainians firing. Why also on the very day that the investigators arrived in Donetsk, did Ukraine launch a major assault on the city?

It is worth reiterating yet again re the shooting down.
Russia has presented hard empirical data from its various military surveillance systems and made it fully available for verification and corroboration from those with the ability and facility to so do.
From the Ukraine and its backers, more than 10 days on, we only have a weak conspiracy theory.

Add to this, the persistent (and apparently deliberate) actions of the Ukraine to delay and frustrate the investigation, Kiev is looking more shady and culpable by the day.

 

[delft]

From the BBC website:

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27 July 2014 Last updated at 10:49 GMT
MH17 crash: Dutch experts cancel Ukraine crash site trip


Dutch experts have cancelled plans to head to the site of the downed Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine, OSCE officials say.

Fighting between pro-Russia separatists and government troops in the area has prevented access to the site, they add.

Earlier, Malaysia said it had struck a deal with the rebels to allow international police at the site.

MH17 crashed on 17 July, killing all 298 people on board. The rebels have been accused of shooting it down.

Russia has suggested the plane could have been shot down by the Ukrainian military - an allegation Ukraine denies.

'Unacceptable risk'

Investigators have struggled to gain access to the rebel-controlled crash site, despite a truce between Ukrainian troops and separatist forces.

"There is fighting going on. We can't take the risk," AFP quotes the deputy chief monitor of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's special mission in Ukraine as saying.

Friends and family paid their respects at a tribute service in Melbourne for Australian victims Liam and Frankie Davison
"The security situation on the way to the site and on the site itself is unacceptable for our unarmed observer mission," he adds.

It comes amid reported shelling close to the MH17 crash site, near the town of Grabove, on Sunday.

The Dutch authorities say the first of the 298 people killed in the MH17 disaster has been identified, without revealing any details.

A total of 227 coffins containing the remains of the victims have been sent for identification to the Netherlands, which is leading the crash investigation.

Officials say the exact number of bodies already collected will be determined only after forensic experts have completed their examination.

Rebels have prevented journalists going to the crash site and Ukrainian government forces are said to be nearby, says the BBC's Tom Burridge, in eastern Ukraine.

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak confirmed in a statement on Sunday that he had reached an agreement with Ukrainian separatist leader Aleksander Borodai to allow international police access to the site in order to "provide protection for international crash investigators".


Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said that Australian police officers would be deployed "as part of an unarmed, Dutch-led international humanitarian mission", AP reports.

The use of unarmed officers removes the need for the Ukrainian parliament to approve the deployment of an international police force to the country, he added.

"Our objective is to get in, get cracking and to get out... This is a risky mission, no doubt about that," the prime minister said.

The US says it believes rebels shot down the passenger jet with a Russian-provided SA-11 Buk surface-to-air missile, probably by mistake.

Russia has frequently denied sending heavy weapons into Ukraine but rebel leaders have given conflicting accounts of whether they had control of a Buk launcher at the time the plane was downed.

In a new development, Russia says it has set up its own team of experts to investigate the plane crash, according to RIA Novosti agency.

Malaysia Airlines commercial director Hugh Dunleavy has called for the formation of "one body to be the arbiter of where we can fly" in the wake of the MH17 disaster.

Writing for the Sunday Telegraph, Mr Dunleavy says "this tragedy has taught us that despite following the guidelines and advice set out by the governing bodies, the skies above certain territories are simply not safe".

This must mean that Kiev is violating the local ceasefire agreed to allow this investigation. Does Kiev have a good reason to do that?

 

[nicky]

сombat coordination is a standard procedure. when a battery moves into a forward filed position it needs to geolocate it and put coordinates into guiding computer and also establish firm connection with faraway kupol radars and command post.
then the crew picks up a nominal target (often a civilian plane flying by) and simulate target tracking and attack. if all goes well they report full combat readiness.

several points are (so far) established beyond reasonable doubts: forward based ukrainian buk battery (space imagery);
probable firing site of the rebel buk (ground photo evidence); crash site (both space and ground evidence).
rebels seemed to possess a single telar. without separate and more powerful kupol radar it's capabilities are very limited.
rebels would require an extremely high trained crew to perform a firing. check the distance from their probable position and see they can barely hit the crash site. they could hardly see the incoming boeing well in advance and without powerful kupol radar were unable to properly assess the situation.

on the contrary, the ukrainian two full buk battalions equipped with kupol radars comfortably tracked the boeing as a nominal target and passed info to the forward battery in order to bring it to the full combat readiness. the forward battery was over 20 (!) km closer to the incoming boeing which was within it's firing range. how happened that they actually fired? by mistake or negligence? it does not matter.

 

[SampanViking]

From the BBC website:

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This must mean that Kiev is violating the local ceasefire agreed to allow this investigation. Does Kiev have a good reason to do that?

I can think of one very easy reason

The crash site is not a huge distance from the Southern Cauldron. Indeed; Russian telemetry shows MH17 executing and completing a steep 180 degree turn in its final moments, while other commentators have estimated that had the plane remained on its original heading, that it would have landed in the Cauldron itself.

It must have occurred to somebody that if the trapped units made a break out towards the Crash Site and occupied it, they would be saved and the site brought under direct Kiev control.

Which MSM in your country has even mentioned the existence of the cauldron? If the Ukrainian troops reached it, how many are likely to scream "cease fire violation"?
All you would be told is that Ukrainian forces had successfully taken control of the site. If the militia tried to retake it, then the howls from the press would start.

 

[delft]

Earlier my Dutch newspaper wrote that investigators were working in Kiev, distributing the work among themselves, getting information available there, but they were kept in Kiev by the government because it was unsafe on the crash site. That despite the fact that OSCE observers and Malaysian experts were at the crash site and reported they could work there safely. Now the investigators can't reach the crash site because of the offensive by Kiev. It begins to be pretty suggestive.

 

[delft]

Dutch prime minister Rutte said some minutes ago that his concern only extends to the recovery of the bodies and luggage of the victims. He apparently expects that eventually the Kiev forces will occupy the area after which the investigators will find what Kiev wants them to find.

 

[texx1]

From the BBC website:

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Those Dutch experts need to grow a pair especially when unarmed and unescorted victim's family members have already visited the crash site of MH17. George and Angela Dyczynski, parents of Fatima, an Australian who lost her life in the tragedy laid flowers at the crash site.

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[SampanViking]

Those Dutch experts need to grow a pair especially when unarmed and unescorted victim's family members have already visited the crash site of MH17. George and Angela Dyczynski, parents of Fatima, an Australian who lost her life in the tragedy laid flowers at the crash site.

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Well this off of the BBC is quite incredible.
Its an interview with head of the Dutch Mission, currently in Kiev and he if I understand him correctly, he is saying that they cannot go to the site as they do not yet have the permission of the Ukrainian government!
By which I do not simply mean permission to travel, but basic permission to perform their mission.

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