Crisis in the Ukraine

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texx1

Junior Member
I take your point on current credibility of US intelligence services plus the Fog of War lead to caveat emptor, but downing of a civilian airliner is one of those "too big to fail" things for US and NATO to misrepresent. I'll bet you dollars to donuts Western sources have this one more right than wrong.

I understand your position. But I still remain skeptical about the reliability of US and NATO resources. Nothing is "too big" to misrepresent when it serves one's own strategic interest by embarrassing a long time rival.
 

Sputnik

New Member
Ukrainian positions near Krasnodon
[video=youtube;YnSmHr7scA8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnSmHr7scA8[/video]
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
It is a valid point, but the problem is how would the rebels know how to operate the equipment? Most Russian/Soviet gears are dated and hard to operate, they require special training. Those are probably produced near the end or just after the Soviet era, definitely no fancy easy to use GUI like those in NATO equipment. The national level chaos didn't start until March/April and real large scale military conflict didn't start until two months ago.

It's impossible for a bunch of random people to just capture bunch of sophisticated SAM units and be able to operate them without professional assistance, especially downing a high flying jet cruising at Mach 0.9 at 10,000m altitude.

It's true the Eastern blocs have extremely high ratio of university educated population, but those are not toys from Walmart or Toys-R-Us, they are sophisticated weapons. Even just learning the acronyms and the logics would take weeks, not to mention fully using them.

That's why I believe it's an active SAM unit of Russian or Ukrainian military that did it. This conclusion is not politically based, but simple deductive reasoning.


Exactly, you need a whole team of experts in order to operate a mobile SAM effectively. It's not like a MANPADs where a single user and spotter can just operate with a few lessons. Of course the missiles and range are different but the point is the sophisticated equipment are contrasting in difficulty to non-military people.
 

SampanViking

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I believe it is pretty clear that the Separatists shot this Malaysian 777 down.

I also believe it was almost certainly a Russian made missile system (probably an SA-11) that did it.

Now, was this a system the separatists had captured from the Ukraine military? Was it one the Russians had provided?

We simply do not know.

I do not think it was an event where they intended to shoot down a civilian airliner. I believe they thought it was probably either a cargo aircraft or a surveillance mission.

It is doubtful, with it being in the middle of the war zone, that a thorough investigation will be done...or be able to be done.

Most airlines, even on the over the pole routes, are flying around Eastern Ukraine for the very reason that the war is ongoing and the Ukrainians certainly have the weaponry, and the separatists may certainly obtain the weaponry, to down such aircraft at such altitudes. Malaysian Airlines was simply crazy to fly a civilian aircraft through there.

Tragic event. IMHO, the separatists should allow the investigators to the site.

They should simply stand on the fact that it is a known war zone....that they mourn and are sorry for the loss of innocent life by mistake. But that in the war they cannot take the chance that it was Ukrainian military and warn all other civilian aircraft to stay clear. They and Russia should be that open and direct about it...and then allow investigators access. That's the best they could do from a PR standpoint.

Well Jeff, I would say that the only two things that are clear are:
a) MH17 fell out of the sky
b) we are enduring a full throttle, full spectrum western media propaganda blitz, backed by our Governments which seems happy to attribute blame somehow, before a single investigator has even reached the site.

Good news this morning is that the Self Defence Militia and Kiev have reached agreement about creating a secure 20km zone around the crash for the benefit of Crash Inspectors, due to start today.

Ukrainian positions near Krasnodon
[video=youtube;YnSmHr7scA8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnSmHr7scA8[/video]

Keep them coming Sputnik and if you can provide some English narrative and context all the better.

If you find any videos with "Graphic" content, please do not post as this is a family based forum.
 
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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Finding operators is a issue, but remember three facts.
1) Prior to this civil conflict the Ukraine operated its armed forces on a mandatory term of service. All adult males in the nation likely have some military service. Including operating Air space denial systems.
3) Along with the Indigenous population outside parties whether Russian military Advisers or non government aligned foreign fighters (I guess you could call them Traditional Mercenaries when compared to the western model of Private Military services/contractors) have also been known on the ground and they may include personal trained to operate the SAM sites.
3) The Eastern points of Ukraine were heavily connected to the USSR's Space and Military technology sectors. The premier Russian Rocket systems have major components built in many of the rebellious Oblasks. Even after the fall of the USSR the Russian Federation depended on imports from factories in these areas.
This means that there should be a number of not only operators but builders of these systems.
Only now have the Russians really started to pull there programs back inside there own boarders' and not only in the Ukraine but all across the former USSR the Russians have been shifting there procurement and operations programs. For example the Belkanor Space port in Kazakhstan is rapidly becoming redundant with two new Russian space ports being built east of the Urals.

final point this has been raised on RT. Why did the MA17 not contact Russian Air control? Answer because nobody else recognizes the Crimean air space that MA17 passed through as Russian Airspace. As far as the Malaysian government was concerned when MA17 passed over the Crimean peninsula and Russian controlled air space it was in Ukrainian air space. And as far as they had been informed all the fighting was far below and as a neutral party would never have been a threat. Now however this has changed. And The Whole of air space above Ukraine is likely to be avoided save for extreme emergency states.
 

SampanViking

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On top of all else, the idea current Ukrainian black ops could smuggle an SA-11 close to the Russian border and do murder, without being discovered, stretches the imagination. Also, if the separatist were innocent, they'd asking the Russians to help them cast a huge dragnet to locate and capture government black op teams.

As has been stated numerous times in this thread. The Ukrainians have a mechanised force of brigade strength pinned against the Russian border, close by to the incident. Would you expect a force of this type and size to be in the field without any air defence units?
 

delft

Brigadier
The people in Eastern Ukraine have heavy weapons at least partly acquired from the Ukrainian army. But in the weapons Russia is accused of providing the Buk system stands out as a sore thumb.

I've been listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and is an odd experience. On the one hand they know who did it, on the other they want an impartial investigation. I heard it said a few minutes ago that many countries want such an investigation and that many of them don't see eye to eye with US and UK, among them France and the other BRICS countries ( and no doubt Germany ).
The BBC also complained that OSCE investigators met armed men one of them fired in the air "when a member of the crowd came to near the wreckage".

The BBC has now one saying "No one doubts that it was the separatists who fired the missile. The only question is was it ordered by Russia".The propaganda was that blatant.

I think we can assume thare was no other missile system near with the ability to down an aircraft at 10 km. So finding that it was a Buk missile is not significant evidence. If the serial number of the missile is established you might be able to trace its history, but only if that trail has not already been destroyed. This investigating commission of an air accident always includes representatives of the country where the aircraft was made but that is also the sponsor of the Kiev regime so that must be balanced by representatives from countries on the other side and preferably countries that are not connected to the conflict.
 

Janiz

Senior Member
I've been listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and is an odd experience. On the one hand they know who did it, on the other they want an impartial investigation. I heard it said a few minutes ago that many countries want such an investigation and that many of them don't see eye to eye with US and UK, among them France and the other BRICS countries ( and no doubt Germany ).
Nope
The foreign Ministers of Germany, France and Poland on Friday reached agreement on the situation in Ukraine and called for an immediate cease-fire to allow a complete investigation into the crash.
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While that's possible, CNN reported sources in US intelligence service that tracked the firing of the missiles and said they came from close to the Russian border. It's not likely a Ukrainian air defense unit would have been out there by themselves, not with a Buk anyway.

Well, no one besides those involved (or have a lot of intelligence about it) really know if a Buk shot down the plane, it could have been some other AA missile or weapon.

Also Kiev's forces could be in the area, armed with AA systems, and were ready to shoot since just a day before this happened they were accusing Russian jets of shooting down one of theirs so it is reasonable to expect them to do something about it.

While it makes sense that likely someone green pulled the trigger both sides have green troops, Kiev has their newly inducted National Guard units. And as illustrated by other incidents referenced on this thread even trained specialists can make this kind of mistake.

So good luck to all investigators especially with both sides also likely using the same equipment.

The one incredible thing is if other civilian aircraft were avoiding flying over eastern Ukraine, why wasn't this flight? At least this aspect of the incident should have plenty of accessible evidence for investigators.
 
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