Crisis in the Ukraine
- Thread starter bd popeye
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Verum
Junior Member
I really doubt the rebels could have shot down the airliner. This thing was cruising at Mach 0.9 at 10KM in the air, not a single weapon in the rebels' arsenal could have shot it down. It requires a professional SAM platoon/batallion with high powered radars and large rockets to shoot it down. This would consist of extremely large military vehicles and lots of soldiers, it would be a huge group of people. Even if the rebels happened to capture those equipment before hand, they still wouldn't be able to use them, as those need months to years of specific training.
Only military with government level orders could accomplish it. But we don't know if it's the Russians or the Ukrainians. Both sides have motivations to shoot down an unknown high flying aircraft. Since it was flying over the conflict zones, Ukrainian side could have mistaken it for a Russian/rebel jet trying to attack its friendlies, Russian side could have mistaken it for a jet bombing the rebels or even potential intruder into Russian territories.
But either way, only professional militaries have the ability to shoot it down.
Only military with government level orders could accomplish it. But we don't know if it's the Russians or the Ukrainians. Both sides have motivations to shoot down an unknown high flying aircraft. Since it was flying over the conflict zones, Ukrainian side could have mistaken it for a Russian/rebel jet trying to attack its friendlies, Russian side could have mistaken it for a jet bombing the rebels or even potential intruder into Russian territories.
But either way, only professional militaries have the ability to shoot it down.
MwRYum
Major
LOL...you should know by now that someone like him don't take newsfeed anywhere other than CNN/BBC/Fox, and indeed, if you goes by those only, you'd missed out that 3 Ukrainian Army brigades - the 24th, 72nd and 79th - are now squeezed between the rebels and Ukraine-Russia border region, and the terrain reminds you of Dien Bien Phu or those in Korean War...and that's what I did, have to brush up on things to see not all is good for the Ukrainian Army in this conflict.
That's why immediately I suspect somebody want to "toss in game changer" when I first heard of the news, alas under other suspicion I admit, but all things considered it still smells that way. Not sure who'd have the final say on the MH17 flight plan (Malaysian Airlines denied that they picked that flight path for the sake of fuel economy) but why nobody at the Ukrainian ATC told MH17 to fly on other flight corridors instead of flying pass the war zone?
Also, the Buk SAM system, the suspected "murder weapon", what is its "minimal requirement" when comes to personnel to achieve a baseline operational capability? Sure enough this ain't like MANPAD that can be operated by infantry with very basic training, it'd need specialists and even just a TELAR vehicle would require 4 men (according to wiki article, a TELAR by itself is enough to perform the whole kill-train process), yet the militia is predominately infantry-vocation personnel (that is, those who are ex-military), not specialist-trained SAM personnel.
So far, a lot of things don't make sense, but if in the next few days things escalate into NATO/US/Russia muscle in over this incident, we might finally have a good idea on who'd have a vested interest in having the MH17 being sacrificed.
In that case they would also have the ability to identify whether it was military or civilian. aircraft. Military planes have an encryption code that is put into the planes so when its detected by radar, they can tell whether its a friendly.
Apparently Singapore and Emirates airlines fly the route taken by MH17
MwRYum
Major
That's only an IFF transponder, so if and when the battery receive no IFF ping on their gear, then that contact is registered as boggy. That's the standard procedure so far.
As such, with or without other avenue to confirm, somebody on the ground made the call that the boggy contact as hostile and engaged the contact.
Right now, the one most keen to nailed this on Moscow is Kiev.
I believe it is pretty clear that the Separatists shot this Malaysian 777 down.
I also believe it was almost certainly a Russian made missile system (probably an SA-11) that did it.
Now, was this a system the separatists had captured from the Ukraine military? Was it one the Russians had provided?
We simply do not know.
I do not think it was an event where they intended to shoot down a civilian airliner. I believe they thought it was probably either a cargo aircraft or a surveillance mission.
It is doubtful, with it being in the middle of the war zone, that a thorough investigation will be done...or be able to be done.
Most airlines, even on the over the pole routes, are flying around Eastern Ukraine for the very reason that the war is ongoing and the Ukrainians certainly have the weaponry, and the separatists may certainly obtain the weaponry, to down such aircraft at such altitudes. Malaysian Airlines was simply crazy to fly a civilian aircraft through there.
Tragic event. IMHO, the separatists should allow the investigators to the site.
They should simply stand on the fact that it is a known war zone....that they mourn and are sorry for the loss of innocent life by mistake. But that in the war they cannot take the chance that it was Ukrainian military and warn all other civilian aircraft to stay clear. They and Russia should be that open and direct about it...and then allow investigators access. That's the best they could do from a PR standpoint.
I also believe it was almost certainly a Russian made missile system (probably an SA-11) that did it.
Now, was this a system the separatists had captured from the Ukraine military? Was it one the Russians had provided?
We simply do not know.
I do not think it was an event where they intended to shoot down a civilian airliner. I believe they thought it was probably either a cargo aircraft or a surveillance mission.
It is doubtful, with it being in the middle of the war zone, that a thorough investigation will be done...or be able to be done.
Most airlines, even on the over the pole routes, are flying around Eastern Ukraine for the very reason that the war is ongoing and the Ukrainians certainly have the weaponry, and the separatists may certainly obtain the weaponry, to down such aircraft at such altitudes. Malaysian Airlines was simply crazy to fly a civilian aircraft through there.
Tragic event. IMHO, the separatists should allow the investigators to the site.
They should simply stand on the fact that it is a known war zone....that they mourn and are sorry for the loss of innocent life by mistake. But that in the war they cannot take the chance that it was Ukrainian military and warn all other civilian aircraft to stay clear. They and Russia should be that open and direct about it...and then allow investigators access. That's the best they could do from a PR standpoint.
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
Except IFF works on a demand system. your Quarry has to be received and then responded to. If your not Quarried properly then no return signal is sent. In the Case of the Iranian Air lines the US Navy sent the ping for a IFF but did not receive a return because the Iranian Airliner couldn't send one. it's not a active system, And it's not always a option as different nations Use different communications. After all If your say a J20 and Stealthy then a easy way for me to target you would be to listen for the active message saying I am Red faction. And I as blue faction would then set up my missile to home in on that. Civilian Birds have Transponders which are active and open encryption codes meant to allow easy ID.
Of course not. I had to back check the ones Who claimed responsibility for the AN26 the SU25 and it was the Luhansk Peoples Republic.texx1 said:
Blackstone
Brigadier
We can't rule out involvement of Russian black ops in training (participating?) Ukrainian rebels to operate Buks and other sophisticated weapon systems. It's not hard to believe Russians have MH 17 blood on their hands.
Just as we can't rule out this was an Ukrainian false flag operation to extract concessions from the rebels and Russian government. It's not hard to believe a government that has bombed and shelled civilian areas before would have second thoughts about killing another 298 in order to gain the upper hand.
Blackstone
Brigadier
While that's possible, CNN reported sources in US intelligence service that tracked the firing of the missiles and said they came from close to the Russian border. It's not likely a Ukrainian air defense unit would have been out there by themselves, not with a Buk anyway.
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