Crisis in the Ukraine

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SouthernSky

Junior Member
The balance of probability for an accident also lies with the Ukrainians, whose equipment is elderly, whose maintenance is woeful and whose operators are the least experienced out of all active forces in the region and of course who do have form for similar accidental shoot downs in the recent past.

With all due respect mistakes can be made regardless of who has their finger on the trigger. Experience, or lack of, does not provide any evidence of what may have occurred to flight MH17. After all, crew of the USS Vincennes managed to mistake an Iranian airliner for an F-14. Far too early to be making calls in such a manner.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Some are already drawing comparisons to KLA 007. when a Korean Airlines 747 was Shot down by a Russian SU15 ( almost made the Classic Mistake of calling it a MIG)

I think the Siberia 1812 would be a far more apt comparison.

That'd be weird if the similar mistakes made by the KH007 repeated here, because the re-constructed flight path indicated the deviation from the common flight corridor made right after the MH17 entered Ukraine airspace, then it went totally off the beaten path.

Hopefully it ain't because somebody in Kiev/Moscow/Washington wanted to throw in a "game changer" and MH17 got drawn the short straw by somebody...it pretty much don't make any sense, as Kiev is making steady gains on Eastern Ukraine in the last couple of weeks, Moscow not too keen on muscling in beyond what they already got (the Crimean)...

According to one of the news reports I read, the plane was being guided by Ukrainian traffic controllers once it entered Ukrainian space.

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"MH17 filed a flight plan requesting to fly at 35,000 feet throughout Ukrainian airspace. This is close to the 'optimum' altitude," the airline said.

"However, an aircraft's altitude in flight is determined by air traffic control on the ground. Upon entering Ukrainian airspace, MH17 was instructed by Ukrainian air traffic control to fly at 33,000 feet."

Not that the height difference would have made a difference, but it does show that the plane was under the guidance of Ukrainian air traffic control. Therefore, it is highly likely that the latter played a part in the plane flying over the warzone.
 
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kwaigonegin

Colonel
Would a Curl bomber be able to put its bombs on a small target? A high flying bomber, unless cooperating with a target designation system is not relevant in this case. Does Ukraine operate such systems?
If someone determines the serial number of the missile concerned would you then know whether the missile was owned by Ukraine or would it be one captured by the Donetski? Would reliable documentation exist?

Not saying this is the case at all however to answer your question in times of war what you are capable of is of no consequence but rather what the other guy thinks you're capable of that matters. Perception is everything.

Is the rebels think the Curls pose a threat they will take them down regardless of their true capabilities.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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With all due respect mistakes can be made regardless of who has their finger on the trigger. Experience, or lack of, does not provide any evidence of what may have occurred to flight MH17. After all, crew of the USS Vincennes managed to mistake an Iranian airliner for an F-14. Far too early to be making calls in such a manner.

A sound view SouthernSky and one perhaps better directed at the incumbents in Kiev who commenced a constant and ongoing stream of increasingly shrill finger pointing, from almost before the plane hit the ground.
A clear case of "protesting to much" I would suggest.

High on the Russian media headlines, but somehow omitted from mention in UK broadcasts that I have seen today, claims that RF forces recorded the Radiation of a Ukrainian active BUK M1 target acquisition Radar in the vicinity.

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Not much other news from the active fronts on the ground so far today. Ukrainian long range artillery has targeted Lugansks power and water utilities and a Propylene refinery owned by a Rosneft.
This gives credence to the reports of Ukrainian forces in retreat, as this is more in line with a scorched earth policy or possible long siege, rather than softening up for an immediate storm assault.

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delft

Brigadier
Not saying this is the case at all however to answer your question in times of war what you are capable of is of no consequence but rather what the other guy thinks you're capable of that matters. Perception is everything.

Is the rebels think the Curls pose a threat they will take them down regardless of their true capabilities.
From the success of their operations against a numerical superior adversary they must have a pretty good idea of the capabilities of the regime's forces. All the more reason to think they cannot have been responsible for the destruction of MH17.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Look, Two An26 were shot down in the general vicinity both claimed by the ProRussian groups Along with a SU25. Thus far we have heard no claims of a shoot down by the Ukrainian Government. but if you want a Ukrainian Air craft that the DPR would love to down The Ukranian Air force operates the IL 76 who's service sealing is almost identical to the 777.
Now Does it really matter what altitude? No not really And As expected Right now Both Sides Want to place the Onus on the other.
Now You can try and Defend it but you Cannot Deny They have the Capacity. Fact They have shown a willingness to use it.

There are Now Claims of a Intercepted phone calls of Pro Russian forces discussing the shootdown the Source is the Ukranian Secret Service.
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And before I hear the Moans of Fox News. even they have stated repeatedly that this is questionable.

At best all we have all any of us have is Prima Facie Evidence.
We can't Dismiss it but we cant use it either
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
From the success of their operations against a numerical superior adversary they must have a pretty good idea of the capabilities of the regime's forces. All the more reason to think they cannot have been responsible for the destruction of MH17.

At this point in time most accounts are pointing to the pro independence group responsible but like what everyone else should do let's wait for more verifiable data. Either way regardless of who shot who I think almost everyone agrees this appears to be a case of misidentifying the target by some trigger happy SAM unit.

Unlike say a MANPAD, this is not just one guy doing all the decision making and pulling the trigger. As we all know a medium/high attitude SAM launch like BUK/SA-11, S-200/300 etc requires the coordination of a couple of integrated systems and multiple folks involved.

A lot of civilians (not like us of course ;) ) are just ignorant on how these things work. Shooting something out of a sky at FL30 is not easy even if it's a big plane like the trip 7.

Suddenly all the news journalist on CNN, FOX NBC etc are experts in weapons system. If you don't know any better you would think Geraldo is an expert in guided missiles after you hear him speak LOL
 

delft

Brigadier
RT.com on why the aircraft flew where it did:
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Questions over why Malaysian plane flew over Ukrainian warzone
Published time: July 18, 2014 10:48
Edited time: July 18, 2014 11:50

As the world tries to cope with the tragic loss of almost 300 people in the apparent downing of a Malaysian Airlines plane over Ukraine, questions have arisen over why the civil aircraft was directed over a war zone.

MH17, carrying passengers from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, crashed on Thursday in Ukraine’s Donetsk Region, the scene of intensive battles between Ukrainian troops and local militias defying Kiev’s rule. In the last several days the militias scored a number of successes, including the reported downing of three Ukrainian military aircraft.

Despite the violence on the ground and apparent danger to aircraft, the Malaysian airliner was directed to pass right over the warzone and was apparently shot down by a sophisticated anti-aircraft missile fired by a Buk-type launcher. No one has claimed responsibility for the act, which resulted in the largest loss of life in the Ukrainian armed conflict so far.

“There are still question to answer like why this plane was flying over that area, whether it was on the correct flight path. It was flying over a war zone where missiles have been fired. It’s a war zone, so why was it flying over there?” blogger and writer Neil Clark asked in an interview with RT.

Now airlines and regulators are declaring Ukraine a no-go zone, but before the tragedy the route over Donetsk Region was considered safe for civil aviation despite the violence on the ground. Last week Ukraine closed the airspace in its east to traffic flying at altitudes of 7,900 meters or lower, but MH17 was flying at 10,600 meters.

Militias have been using relatively simple anti-aircraft weapons like shoulder-fired SAMs, which can engage targets up to 3,500 meters high, which apparently was good enough reason for airlines and Ukrainian traffic controllers to allow high-flying planes over the restricted area.

“MAS had used this route for years and it had always been safe. Fifteen out of 16 Asean Pacific airlines and even some airlines from Europe fly that route,” Malaysian Transport Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said at a media conference on Friday. “There were no last minute instructions to change the flight path to a different route."

The carriers had good reason to fly over Ukraine, because it’s the shortest route between many European countries and large cities in Southeast Asia. Shorter fly paths means less fuel spent and larger profits from the airlines. Hundreds of flights passed Ukraine daily before the conflict there escalated, and the traffic remained quite intensive before Thursday’s tragedy.

What’s peculiar about MH17 is that the ill-fated flight was different from its usual path over Ukraine. According to data at flightaware.com, a website tracking civil aviation traffic, the flight on Thursday diverted about 200km north from the paths the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 had used in previous days. And it led the plane right over the war-torn Donetsk Region.

So far no official explanation has been given as to the unusual flight path. But a conflict between Russia and Ukraine over the airspace above Crimea may have played a role. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAN), a UN watchdog, considers the airspace over the region part of Ukraine’s national traffic control responsibility. Russia has contested this ever since the former Ukrainian region became part of Russia.

Amid the conflict most carriers avoid flying through Crimean airspace. Malaysian Airlines is no exception, and MH17 flights were usually routed over the Azov Sea northeast of Crimea or over the Black Sea to the south of it. If flying over the Azov Sea was not available for some reason on Thursday, the carrier could have been advised by Ukrainian traffic control to divert the flight further north.
 

delft

Brigadier
At this point in time most accounts are pointing to the pro independence group responsible but like what everyone else should do let's wait for more verifiable data. Either way regardless of who shot who I think almost everyone agrees this appears to be a case of misidentifying the target by some trigger happy SAM unit.

Unlike say a MANPAD, this is not just one guy doing all the decision making and pulling the trigger. As we all know a medium/high attitude SAM launch like BUK/SA-11, S-200/300 etc requires the coordination of a couple of integrated systems and multiple folks involved.

A lot of civilians (not like us of course ;) ) are just ignorant on how these things work. Shooting something out of a sky at FL30 is not easy even if it's a big plane like the trip 7.

Suddenly all the news journalist on CNN, FOX NBC etc are experts in weapons system. If you don't know any better you would think Geraldo is an expert in guided missiles after you hear him speak LOL
Either a case of misidentifying the target by some trigger happy SAM unit or a false flag incident.
 
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