Crisis in the Ukraine

[MwRYum]

Also interested in the answer. Do we have any experts on civil aviation here at sinodefence? Anybody that can shed some light on this.

One thing that has been bothering me about this. If MH17 needed to divert in order to avoid bad weather or thunderstorms, why the pilots or air traffic control chose to divert the plane north towards the conflict zone instead of south over Black Sea.

That'd be weird if the similar mistakes made by the KH007 repeated here, because the re-constructed flight path indicated the deviation from the common flight corridor made right after the MH17 entered Ukraine airspace, then it went totally off the beaten path.

Hopefully it ain't because somebody in Kiev/Moscow/Washington wanted to throw in a "game changer" and MH17 got drawn the short straw by somebody...it pretty much don't make any sense, as Kiev is making steady gains on Eastern Ukraine in the last couple of weeks, Moscow not too keen on muscling in beyond what they already got (the Crimean)...

 

[delft]

An aircraft flying at the height and speed of MH17 would be no danger to the people on the ground unless it was a B-52, which would not be expected. So seeing the map showing how many earlier flew over the Sea of Azov rather than Donetsk it looks like a false flag operation by the Ukraine. And when it comes out they will blame it on a mistake, as in 2001.

OT
Did you see that Netanyahu took the opportunity to invade Gaza?

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Totally OT delft leave it for elsewhere.

and no it would not only be a B52. The Russians older bombers and just about any cargo plane could be at that altitude and flight line. Current theory revolving around the ghost of KLA 007 is that because the plane deviated from its course it like KLA007 it was either miss identified or the Sam site was trying to kill some other bird and the missile went stupid started hunting MA17 instead.

Given that in the week before the MA17 the Ukrainian separatists tallied what 2 AN26 Curls and a SU25. Then factor that the 777 was at 33000 feet and one of those Curls was listed at over 21000 my money is on the Sam being the same unit that took the Curls. They saw a blip on the screen did not bother to check for civilian transponder and fired the shot.

 

[delft]

Totally OT delft leave it for elsewhere.

and no it would not only be a B52. The Russians older bombers and just about any cargo plane could be at that altitude and flight line. Current theory revolving around the ghost of KLA 007 is that because the plane deviated from its course it like KLA007 it was either miss identified or the Sam site was trying to kill some other bird and the missile went stupid started hunting MA17 instead.

Given that in the week before the MA17 the Ukrainian separatists tallied what 2 AN26 Curls and a SU25. Then factor that the 777 was at 33000 feet and one of those Curls was listed at over 21000 my money is on the Sam being the same unit that took the Curls. They saw a blip on the screen did not bother to check for civilian transponder and fired the shot.

I said only a B-52 would be a danger ( but perhaps also a Tu-16. Does Ukraine still have them? ) but would not be expected. No aircraft at that altitude and speed would be a reasonable target. And as the people of Donetsk have only a small number of the relevant missiles they are unlikely to fire at any aircraft at that height.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Delft, transports can be used as bombers. Its been done before and will be again. The only difference is how the bomb leaves the plane. From a bomb bay, off a wing or down the ramp, and transports like the An26 curls are multifunction they can be configured to drop bombs, as Observation planes or to drop troops.

so them "wasting" a missile is not a valid argument nor exonerating evidence. We do know that the Donesk peoples republic has downed Curls and recently. We have a aircraft downed in about the same timeline as those downings. We have no evidence that the DPR have set up a radio communications system for air traffic control.we have a aircraft that strayed from its normal course and entered contested air space. And we have a Sam missile that shot it down. We will have to wait for the final verdict. The Donesk Peoples republic claim to have given the Russians the black box of the plane but that only tells half the story. We need the SAM operators and the data from the SAM site to finish the story.

 

[Mr T]

We need the SAM operators and the data from the SAM site to finish the story.

Which probably ain't going to happen, because the rebels will try to ensure that information/people disappears - one way or another.

As for the black box, apparently it has been found by Ukrainian officials - the reports it was taken to Moscow by the rebels appear to be false.

 

[B.I.B.]

This is no doubt a very, very bad year for Malaysian Airlines.



Was the flight path on 17/7 still within the civil aviation flight corridor?

According to news reports it still was, although a few airlines such as Lufthansa had chosen to fly an alternative.

 

[delft]

Delft, transports can be used as bombers. Its been done before and will be again. The only difference is how the bomb leaves the plane. From a bomb bay, off a wing or down the ramp, and transports like the An26 curls are multifunction they can be configured to drop bombs, as Observation planes or to drop troops.

so them "wasting" a missile is not a valid argument nor exonerating evidence. We do know that the Donesk peoples republic has downed Curls and recently. We have a aircraft downed in about the same timeline as those downings. We have no evidence that the DPR have set up a radio communications system for air traffic control.we have a aircraft that strayed from its normal course and entered contested air space. And we have a Sam missile that shot it down. We will have to wait for the final verdict. The Donesk Peoples republic claim to have given the Russians the black box of the plane but that only tells half the story. We need the SAM operators and the data from the SAM site to finish the story.

Would a Curl bomber be able to put its bombs on a small target? A high flying bomber, unless cooperating with a target designation system is not relevant in this case. Does Ukraine operate such systems?
If someone determines the serial number of the missile concerned would you then know whether the missile was owned by Ukraine or would it be one captured by the Donetski? Would reliable documentation exist?

 

[SampanViking]

I am going to post the Wiki entry for the An-26 here

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What it tells us is that a Boeing 777 was flying over 10,000 ft higher than the Antonov's ceiling and was flying at twice the speed.
I thin the idea that the militia shot the plane down by accident is the most disingenuous notion I have heard for a while.

The balance of means motive and opportunity for a deliberate act, lie overwhelmingly with the Ukrainians who, with forces around Lugansk and Donetsk in disarray and the Southern Brigade on the brink of annihilation have the most to gain from this event and are the ones most keen on a Cease Fire to help pull their backsides out the fire they lit for themselves.

The balance of probability for an accident also lies with the Ukrainians, whose equipment is elderly, whose maintenance is woeful and whose operators are the least experienced out of all active forces in the region and of course who do have form for similar accidental shoot downs in the recent past.

If the militia have operational BUK's these are going to be top line weapons and hardly about to be entrusted to a AD novice. The core of the militia are veterans of former Russian ethnic struggles and Army Professionals. If the BUK;'s are in use you can bet that the guys handling them have prior experience.

This Civil war has been cranking along for months with very little attention from the media and an almost total disregard for the growing daily toll of local civilian fatalities and other casualties.
Now the media has taken notice again and think the militia should down their arms, just as they are at the verge of achieving a major strategic victory?

As the old saying goes, Sincerity, if you can fake that, the world is yours!

 

[delft]

I just read this on a Dutch economy website:
An IMF delegation left Kiev yesterday after concluding that the Ukrainian economy will shrink this year with 6.5% rather than the 5% earlier expected.

Remember that IMF is always more optimistic than warranted.