Crisis in the Ukraine

Status
Not open for further replies.

Equation

Lieutenant General
I am just listening to BBC Radio 4 news. It says that Putin proposed a peace plan while what he talked about was clearly a plan for a ceasefire. It also said the had asked the militia to stop its advance, which would be premature. Also that Yats was not interested. Who has ultimate authority in Kiev?
France said, according to BBC, it will not deliver the Mistrals, so it has found its foot to shoot into.

Whoa! So NATO pressure did work in preventing France from delivering the 1st Mistral to Russia after all. Because from what I read yesterday French President Hollande say the 1st Mistral will be deliver on time, meanwhile the 2nd is on hold depending Russia's "attitude" on the Ukraine conflict.:confused:
 
Central European servers are telling me the Mistrals delivery has been canceled; a moment ago I used google:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and won't look for the original source (Le Monde?) as I don't know French, so please tell me if this not true
 

delft

Brigadier
I add the comments of The Saker:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Pauvre, pauvre France!

It appears that Francois Holland, aka "soft testicle" (nickname given to him by Martine Aubry, First Secretary of the Socialist Party of France), has outdone even Tony Blair as the US's most docile poodle in Europe. After resisting US pressure for a long time and being fined billions of dollars for doing so, he has suddenly decided to cave in and suspend the delivery of the French Mistrals to Russia. However, not will the US will not return to 9 billion dollars extorted out of Paribas, now the Russian can impose astronomical penalties on France for breach of contract. Double whammy for Hollande!

Now I suspect that this is a measure which will last exactly as long as the upcoming NATO summit and that as soon it is over the "circumstances for delivery" will magically become "right again". As for Russia - no worries. She will either get the ships or get a huge load of money. A win-win situation for sure

But that is hardly the point.

First, whether Russia really needs these French ships is an extremely controversial issue in Russia, especially in the military. I did not take a poll, but my guess is that most of the military don't want them and rather spend the money elsewhere. This was a Medvedev purchase which was far from having a unanimity behind it. Personally, I think that the Mistrals are very good ships, very versatile, and that Russia could use on in the Black Sea and one in the Far East. They also come at at time with the Russian shipbuilding industry is over-worked and does not have the capacity to fulfill all the orders of the Russian Navy. Finally, the Mistrals come with an advanced communication and command infrastructure which the Russian would like to get their hands one. But I have always had a weak spot for French weapon systems and nobody asked me my opinion anyway. Besides, there are cheaper way for Russian to get that kind of capabilities or systems.

I think that the real importance of the Mistral contact was to show Russia, France and the rest of the world that the two countries could work together, even on huge contracts, that France is a credibly supplier and that the Russian and French military industrial complexes can cooperate.

Now the French look like total whips and idiots.


That is really unfair. The French deserve a great deal of credit for doing everything just right, sining such a complex agreement is no small task, and for designing a superb ship. Now all this is compromised by Francois "soft testicle" Hollande who clearly has the vision, courage, intelligence and leadership qualities of a blue-green algae.

I bet you the ships will be delivered more or less on time. But a terrible blow has been dealt to one of values the French hold extremely dear: the independence of their country from all other big powers. If the British are more or less resigned to their role as janitor for Uncle Sam, the French will not accept this and I expect the hatred for the current regime to become even more virulent than it is today. I tend to agree with French economist Pierre Jovanovic when he predicts that "King Francois" (another of his nicknames) will never finish his term in office.

Pauvre, pauvre France...

The Saker
Posted by VINEYARDSAKER: at 17:38 23 comments:
Labels: Francois Hollande, Mistral, US's poodle
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Where to start on a day like this?

I guess the maps are always a good place to kick off

21ajor4.jpg


and of course the BBC version on behalf of Kiev

9lhjkl.jpg


Both are dated 1st Sept

I think next I would like to deal with continuing BS about direct Russian Federation Intervention in the fighting.
The following is the link and text of this weeks OSCE border monitoring mission support.
This is an OSCE mission stationed on the Russian border.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Weekly update from the OSCE Observer Mission at the Russian Checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk, 28 August until 08:00, 3 September 2014
KAMENSK-SHAKHTINSKY, Russian Federation 3 September 2014



This update is for media and the general public.

KAMENSK-SHAKHTINSKY, Russian Federation, 3 September 2014 - The Observer Mission (OM) is operating at full capacity. Cross-border traffic flow remained steady at both Border Crossing Points. However, the OM observed a clear reversal in the flow of people crossing the border (more people exiting the Russian Federation into Ukraine). The OM observed an increased military activity principally of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the vicinity of the Border Crossing Points. The OM heard considerable artillery detonations from the Donetsk Border Crossing Point.

DETAIL

OM’s arrival, establishment and observation work

As of 3 September the OM is operating at full capacity with 19 staff members (including three administrative assistants). Sixteen international observers provide a permanent presence at the two Border Crossing Points of Donetsk and Gukovo. With the exception of the Acting Chief Observer, who has yet to be replaced by a to-be-selected Chief Observer, all the observers are scheduled to perform their defined duties until the end of the Observer Mission’s mandate on 23 October 2014.

Cross-border movements common to both Border Crossing Points

The profile of the people crossing the border remains unchanged and can be categorized as follows:

Families on foot or by car with a lot of luggage;
Elderly people with few bags;
Adults (usually of younger age) with no luggage or empty cars;
People wearing military-style clothes with or without backpacks.

While the number of entries/exits has remained stable at an average of 6,523 per day for both Border Crossing Points, the OM has observed a clear reversal in the flow of people crossing the border. Since August 26, the majority of border crossers have been going back into Ukraine with an average net flow of minus 429 per day for both Border Crossing Points in the last week and since that day 3,857 people have returned to Ukraine through both Border Crossing Points. The statistics also show that the Donetsk Border Crossing Point consistently experiences more traffic than the Gukovo Border Crossing Point. The cross-border movements registered at both Border Crossing Points account for 43 percent of all the Rostov Region’s entries/exits.

The OM continued to observe a general trend of very low cross-border traffic during the night hours. At sunrise the number of travellers slowly increases until late morning. Then, the traffic flow decreases but rises towards the late afternoon and evening. The majority of the vehicles crossing the border have number plates issued in the Luhansk region.

Common observations at the Border Crossing Points

In general, the situation at both Border Crossing Points is calm. People crossing the border talk to the Observer Teams (OTs) regularly and continue to describe the situation in the Luhansk region as dire. The OTs continued to receive numerous accounts of severe destruction caused by artillery fire which resulted in the interruption of water, gas and electricity supplies, the latter apparently unavailable for more than five weeks in some areas including Luhansk city itself.

Throughout the week, the OTs noticed a net increase of young people (both men and women) wearing military-style dress crossing the border in both directions but did not observe any weapons among these groups. OTs had regular interactions with supporters of the self-proclaimed republics. Some discussed openly with the OSCE while others expressed their total mistrust toward the OSCE. At both Border Crossing Points, some supporters of the self-proclaimed republics explained that they are not allowed to cross the border with weapons. However, on the other side, there are organized places where they receive weapons, ammunition and equipment and are dispatched to their assigned areas on the Ukrainian side. Upon return, they hand over weapons, ammunition and other military equipment and cross back into the Russian Federation. In the case of Gukovo, there is even a firing range to calibre the newly-received weapons before continuing to the frontlines. As described in previous reports, on a daily basis OTs hear such range-like shootings on Ukrainian territory at a short distance from the Gukovo Border Crossing Point.

The OTs observed more people wearing black t-shirts with the inscription “Novorossiya” (“new Russia”) or “Luhansk People’s Republic” with corresponding flags. In some instances, this flag was also observed on several civilian vehicles’ windshields and license plates.

Civilian people stopping to discuss with OTs often ask the OSCE to stop the conflict and to record and report their testimonies so that everybody can be aware of the situation.

Military movement

Throughout the week, day and night, the OTs heard the sound of propeller aircrafts in the vicinity of the Border Crossing Points. During daylight and when the weather conditions were favourable, the OTs observed the same small grey aircrafts identified as UAVs. The same flight patterns were observed at both Border Crossing Points. The UAVs were following a flight path assessed to be at the edge of the Ukrainian border on very regular schedules with intervals varying from 18 to 25 minutes. In several instances, up to two UAVs were observed in the same area at the same time.

There was a decrease in helicopter sightings compared to last week but they were still observed at both Border Crossing Points flying at low altitude along the border.

In either case, in as far as could be seen, the aircrafts did not violate the Ukrainian airspace in the vicinity of the Border Crossing Points.

Observation at the Gukovo Border Crossing Point

The traffic flow at Gukovo BCP has remained steady compared to last week, with a slight decrease in the past two days. A daily average of 2,940 entries and exits was recorded, which accounted for 19 percent of all entries/exits into the Rostov Region. The average number of people entering the Russian Federation has diminished consistently during the reporting period and the net flow has been negative since 26 August with a daily average of minus 262. This statistic clearly reflects a return movement into Ukraine. In the past week, close to 2,000 people have returned to Ukraine through the Gukovo Border Crossing Point each day.

Throughout the week, the OTs continued to hear gunfire on the Ukrainian side very close to the Border Crossing Point. As described earlier, these fire incidents were assessed as not combat-related, reportedly originating from a nearby improvised ‘shooting range’ under the control of supporters of the self-proclaimed republics.

Reports of people at the Gukovo Border Crossing Point

OTs received reports from people of Sverdlovsk (17 km west of Gukovo Border Crossing Point) about the town’s situation. They reported that the town had not experienced direct fights but five houses were destroyed. Although public transport and the only hospital were functioning, for the past two-and-a-half months, there was no water. According to them, pensions and social benefits were not paid and people could not access money. Prices for common goods had increased considerably and therefore people were going to the Russian Federation every three to four days to buy first necessity products and to obtain cash at ATMs or banks. People reported that the school year was planned to start on 1 September but they did not want their children to follow Ukrainian curricula.

Observation at the Donetsk Border Crossing Point

During the reporting period, the activity at the Donetsk Border Crossing Point has slightly increased compared to last week. The total number of border crossings at Donetsk Border Crossing Point consistently exceeds those of Gukovo Border Crossing Point. A daily average of 3,627 entries and exits was recorded, which accounted for 24 percent of all entries/exits into the Rostov Region. The average number of people entering the Russian Federation has diminished consistently during the reporting period and the net flow has been negative since 29 August with a daily average of minus 410. As for the Gukovo Border Crossing Point, this statistic clearly reflects a return movement into Ukraine. In the past week close to 1,900 people have returned to Ukraine through the Donetsk Border Crossing Point each day.

Throughout the week, shootings, blasts and artillery detonations were heard at various times of the day and night, and from different distances and directions around the Donetsk Border Crossing Point. Artillery detonations were especially intense during the weekend in the direction north of Krasnodon. Throughout the night of 30 to 31 August, dozens of very loud artillery detonations were heard and felt by an OT. The detonations were close by in a westerly/ north-westerly direction.

In the past weeks, artillery detonations and shootings had been heard only from western and northern directions; but throughout the week for the first time OTs reported light and heavy calibre shootings from the east and south-east areas which are also bordering Ukraine.

Throughout the week, OTs observed a net increase in activity of young people dressed in military style crossing back and forth at the Border Crossing Point. OTs also observed some of these people visibly wounded crossing back into the Russian Federation with white bandages and/or crutches. OTs also observed transfers of more seriously-wounded persons by ambulances. Some people dressed in military style were accompanying the wounded and were particularly well-equipped including holsters but without weapons.

In one instance, an OT observed eight young men dressed in military style carrying two heavy stretchers loaded with boxes. The stretchers were visibly heavy (more than a hundred kilograms) because the groups were stopping every 30 to 50 metres to recover. The OT observed Border Crossing Point officials checking the boxes with metal detectors. The OT asked Border Crossing Point officials about the content of the boxes and was told that it was food products.

Reports of people at the Donetsk Border Crossing Point

OTs received reports from people of Molodohvardeysk, Novosvetlovska (15 km south-east of Luhansk) and other places around Luhansk city. They all indicated heavy fighting and considerable damage to infrastructure and asked the OSCE to stop the fighting.

Russian humanitarian convoy

The OM does not have any confirmation that a second humanitarian convoy will go through the Donetsk Border Crossing Point. During the past week, representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) visited the Donetsk Border Crossing Point and met with Russian and Ukrainian border guards and customs officers. To this day, Ukrainian border guards and customs officers are still staying next to the Donetsk Border Crossing Point. In addition, personnel of the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry came to the Border Crossing Point to consult with the Russian Border Crossing Point authorities.

I think we can all agree that for some reason, large Armoured Convoys crossing the border from Russia into Ukraine appear to have been omitted.

Finally of course, Putin has done it again and has started the dialogue for an effective Peace process at the very time that NATO leaders have arrived in Cardiff to discuss/denounce Russian aggression. It will be interesting to see how this all turns out, but it seems even Poroshenko has realised that the only result his claims last week are likely to produce is ........ enhanced protection for the Baltic States.
It is not much comfort for him.
Yatsenyuk of course shows his true colours and loyalty by trying to shoot any agreement down and generally support the position of his sponsors and (presumably) paymasters.
Will these two clash on the back of this?
 

solarz

Brigadier
Where to start on a day like this?

I guess the maps are always a good place to kick off

21ajor4.jpg

That map shows a lot of pockets of government forces. If Kiev manages to regroup and raise another expedition force, those pockets could represent serious headaches for the rebels.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
That map shows a lot of pockets of government forces. If Kiev manages to regroup and raise another expedition force, those pockets could represent serious headaches for the rebels.

That is IF they can get the resupplies and more personnel into those pockets of resistance, other wise they are all will be in "Alamo" mode or "Stalingrad" for a long time.
 

Dannhill

Junior Member
I am surprised at how US just simply ignores the OSCE reports time after time just because they are Inconvenient Truths to his country's lies about Russian military "invasion" of Ukraine. It just goes to show just how dishonest humans those US leaders are with their false flags to justify their illegal actions in other countries' internal affairs.

US is doing everything to justify NATO's continued existence after the end of the Cold War, dragging it into global US wars to give US a thin veneer of legitimacy for war crimes against humanity.

Seriously, besides US and Europe I doubt the rest of the world are fooled by such hypocrisy.

BTW, I have Google Earth images of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning in the Black Sea bombing the Kiev forces.
 

Dannhill

Junior Member
I think it's time for the separatists to close those pockets since they already have more than enough tanks and armoured vehicles. Lots of artillery available too. If those pockets won't surrender by now then they are likely hardcore fascist units or else foreign mercenaries fighting with Kiev who can't really surrender and face questionings and exposure to the world.

That is IF they can get the resupplies and more personnel into those pockets of resistance, other wise they are all will be in "Alamo" mode or "Stalingrad" for a long time.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
I think it's time for the separatists to close those pockets since they already have more than enough tanks and armoured vehicles. Lots of artillery available too. If those pockets won't surrender by now then they are likely hardcore fascist units or else foreign mercenaries fighting with Kiev who can't really surrender and face questionings and exposure to the world.

Well they better hurry up before NATO and the US are coming in either by air support or weapons supply drops to the Ukraine forces stuck in those pockets. Russia and US spy satellites are watching this event very closely.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top