Crisis in the Ukraine
- Thread starter bd popeye
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nope, economic sanction as a catalyst for regime change has not worked in any of the countries you mentioned. this is especially the case with countries like russia, who has a europe that is unwilling to completely severing ties with a lucrative market, and china/korea/japan that are even eager to do business with it. i dont really know exactly what those policy makers were thinking trying to precipitate a regime change with economic sanction, and a half-hearted one at best.
well at this point the separatists still dont have that kind of capability. they need a lot more armour (which connotes better C2), a lot more manpower, and airpower. and even with those they will have to eliminate existing pockets first. ukraine is already building defence around zaporozhye, a good move by kiev.
broadsword
Brigadier
I don't think the US or Nato will go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The further they will go is to fight a proxy war. This is Russia's backyard and it is determined to defend its turf. The West will grudgingly accept a new Ukraine.
Jura The idiot
General
wow! I hope Russian Secret Service is following this thread ROFL
by the way, I live pretty close from the place where this "car accident" happened:
Good to read an update at last and yes it seems all about consolidation and not getting too far ahead of the game.
Mariupol has been heavily defended and I also suspect that the NRA will be reluctant to storm a city in the same manner as the Pro Kiev forces have done. It would afterall counter a lot of their own propaganda narrative if they do. It is also true that there is still a lot of work to done in the environs of the two regional capitals and that must be the priority.
Tass is reporting another 100 Ukrainian troops have surrendered at Starobeshevo, which is at the Eastern end of the new and most westerly of the cauldrons on the Southern Front.
It was interesting to read both Cassad and Saker discuss the elephants in the room in the form of the hold out formations at both the regional capitals airports. All I will say is that the fact that the Donbass is a mining region could be very useful.
Here is a site that I was recommended by one of the main Pro Russian info sites a little while ago. It is useful but of limited use to me as it is in Russian, for others it may be much easier to use.
The site is s project to catalogue all Ukrainian (possibly all NRA) armour lost in the conflict. Each D/B entry is a link to a more detailed description and contains pictures/videos etc.
Putin has upped the Political anti today by calling for talks to discuss the "statehood" of Eastern Ukraine. You do not need to be Sherlock to realise that this is the opening gambit for recognition of Novorossiya.
Mariupol has been heavily defended and I also suspect that the NRA will be reluctant to storm a city in the same manner as the Pro Kiev forces have done. It would afterall counter a lot of their own propaganda narrative if they do. It is also true that there is still a lot of work to done in the environs of the two regional capitals and that must be the priority.
Tass is reporting another 100 Ukrainian troops have surrendered at Starobeshevo, which is at the Eastern end of the new and most westerly of the cauldrons on the Southern Front.
It was interesting to read both Cassad and Saker discuss the elephants in the room in the form of the hold out formations at both the regional capitals airports. All I will say is that the fact that the Donbass is a mining region could be very useful.
Here is a site that I was recommended by one of the main Pro Russian info sites a little while ago. It is useful but of limited use to me as it is in Russian, for others it may be much easier to use.
The site is s project to catalogue all Ukrainian (possibly all NRA) armour lost in the conflict. Each D/B entry is a link to a more detailed description and contains pictures/videos etc.
Putin has upped the Political anti today by calling for talks to discuss the "statehood" of Eastern Ukraine. You do not need to be Sherlock to realise that this is the opening gambit for recognition of Novorossiya.
Jura The idiot
General
As I said in my previous post, economic sanctions are insufficient to overthrow a government on their own. Though in every case I mentioned sanctions did/do hurt the target economy, inhibit development, and contribute to imbalanced policies in the target country with great potential for discontent among its people.
Even if the only effect is to make the target country a weaker opponent in a future military conflict the sanctions have done its job, look at the US and Western European arms export ban to China. Civilian sector sanctions are actually worse, if not for China's booming civilian sector trade it would not have had the money or the expertise on dual use technologies to develop its own arms industry.
That's why if you remember what sparked the latest Ukraine crisis, it was a decision on a major trade deal putting Ukraine in either the EU or Russia's economic orbit.
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if the rebels dont take mariupol, which i know they are not planning on at the moment, their flanks will be left vulnerable, as reinforcements from kiev can cut behind them from the north or northwest. i dont know if the rebels are still getting a lot of fresh troops at this moment, but if they do it is probably better to commit them north towards slavyansk. to keep kiev guessing as to where they are heading, and those troops guarding the pockets will rest and become operational reserves for a little bit.
as for kiev's side, now it is probably for the best to consolidate around zaporoshye and melitopol, as these are the next two potential objectives of rebels' advance. and i would take extra care to secure all the bridges over the dnipro river, just in case anyone tries anything funny.
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