Crisis in the Ukraine

Mr T said:

Not at all. The hand of friendship was offered to Putin. He batted it away because he didn't like the idea of Ukraine forging a path of its own choosing and on its own terms. That's why he annexed Crimea, and that's why he instigated the rebellion in eastern Ukraine. He wanted a divided, broken country that would be easier to manipulate or could be difficult for the EU/NATO to offer membership to.



Russia has plenty to lose, as increased European and American sanctions show. Every time someone said "they won't dare go further", they have done.



That is not what is happening. Why? Because they would be committing treason by taking their equipment with them. That large numbers of tanks, armoured vehicles and other equipment has been crossing the border shows this is happening at the Kremlin's direction - or, even worse, that someone unseen is pulling Putin's strings from within Russia (virtually impossible, but the only other explanation).



That makes no sense. You're suggesting the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying their best to lose the war. If they lose, that's it. "Shady" forces in the democratic world aren't going to use it as an excuse to take over or start a conflict. The Ukrainians want to win, but have found it hard because Russia has stepped up support for the rebels.



I'm not sure it was independently confirmed, and in any event:

a) it happened a long, long time after the rebellion started;
b) I have not heard anything credible to suggest it was "constant"; and
c) Russia returned fire.



Given the American rebels benefited hugely from French and other anti-British nations, you seem to be saying that the Russian government is directly the Ukrainian rebels.

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Mr T, you constantly (as do others) hark on about Russian formations crossing the border to join the conflict. The problem is, nobody has yet produced a shred of credible evidence to support this contention, which for a modern army, would be impossible to achieve. The amount of generated SIGINT alone would be impossible to hide. The absence of evidence form those making the accusations is definitely evidence of absence in this case and those making the allegations are guilty of spreading tin foil hat conspiracy theory of the first order.

On top of that, if you search back not very far Dannhill has left a convenient link to the OSCE observer mission reports for both the border and inside the Donbass region. On no occasion does any report confirm the presence of Russian Regular formations, which would be impossible to hide, if they were doing even a fraction of the things with which they have been accredited.
So unless those making and repeating the allegations are accusing the OSCE of colluding with the Russians to perpetrate a conspiracy against their own sponsoring governments, they are only generating headlines fit for the tackiest and least credible of tabloids.

Mr T said:

...
Given the American rebels benefited hugely from French and other anti-British nations, you seem to be saying that the Russian government is directly the Ukrainian rebels.

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oh no, that's spin, I stand up for SampanViking now, that's definitely not what he meant! LOL!

"France, Spain and the Dutch Republic had been secretly providing supplies, ammunition and weapons to the revolutionaries starting early in 1776." says the introductory part of

"French aid proved vital in the victory of the Americans seeking independence from Britain." says the introductory part of


"... also viewed the Revolution as an opportunity to weaken the British Empire" says about Spaniards the introductory part of

SampanViking said:

Mr T, you constantly (as do others) hark on about Russian formations crossing the border to join the conflict. The problem is, nobody has yet produced a shred of credible evidence to support this contention, which for a modern army, would be impossible to achieve. The amount of generated SIGINT alone would be impossible to hide. The absence of evidence form those making the accusations is definitely evidence of absence in this case and those making the allegations are guilty of spreading tin foil hat conspiracy theory of the first order.

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Indeed, it was impossible to hide. Watch this and stop claiming that there was no help from the Russian side transferred through the border which Ukraine doesn't control... You don't need reports from officials when you can see a hole in the fence, military equpiement tracks all over it and seeing the trucks just behind the border on the Ukrainian side.

LesAdieux said:

Estonia accuses Russia of kidnapping its security official on the border.

days after Obama's visit, and the tough NATO speech he delievered in Talin. I guess Putin just wanted to show his contempt for that.

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first some more background (from yesterday):


two hours ago the Russian press-release appeared:


basically only the name is the same in both reports ...

A moment ago I checked and wiki says 24.8% Russians under Ethnic groups (2014) for Estonia ...

SampanViking said:

Mr T, you constantly (as do others) hark on about Russian formations crossing the border to join the conflict.

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I don't believe I ever used the words "formation" or "formations", so I don't know how I could hark on about anything like that.

I do not know if any "regular" formations have crossed the border. But whether they have, or different units have been split away from various formations, personnel and equipment has crossed the border. These Russians haven't been fighting with patriotic songs and high-kicking marching steps, nor have the rebels.

Janiz said:

Indeed, it was impossible to hide. Watch this

[video=youtube;jjDbHbRiGRQ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjDbHbRiGRQ[/video]​

and stop claiming that there was no help from the Russian side transferred through the border which Ukraine doesn't control... You don't need reports from officials when you can see a hole in the fence, military equpiement tracks all over it and seeing the trucks just behind the border on the Ukrainian side.

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Volunteers cross the border, thats not news.
Some armour is obtained by the militia or belongs to some of the regional militias such as South Ossetia - that's not news
The Russians treat wounded rebels, good, they also treat wounded Ukrainian servicemen - so what?

None of this or anything in your video gave any evidence whatsoever of what is being alleged, full scale involvement of Russian regular formations.

Remember the allegation is that the militia were being soundly beaten on all fronts, until a couple of weeks ago when large Russian formations crossed the border and changed the course of the whole conflict by defeating the Ukrainians on all fronts and also invading separately across the border at Novoazovsk to advance on Mariupol. In short at least one Army Group committed, but of course without any air Support.

If they are then NATO needs to be very worried, as Russia clearly has a technology which shields entire Field Armies, 100% effectrively from the entire Audio and Electro Magnetic spectra!

Does anyone on this forum actually seriously believe that the Russians would just send a couple of Brigades here and there, if they decided to join the combat?

A Russian intervention would be total, like a US intervention. It would mean Airstrikes en masse throughout the country, starting with regional C&C and Air Defence, before progressing to Artillery and other Forward Military Units. Shock and Awe missile attacks against Government and C&C buildings in Kiev, Full Amy Group Invasions from along the whole border from Kiev via Kharkov and down to Sea of Azov, Attacks from Crimea into Kherson and most likely an amphibious assault into Odessa. Anything else in "Bravo Sierra" and I am getting sick and tired of having to listen to such stupidity!

SampanViking said:

Remember the allegation is that the militia were being soundly beaten on all fronts, until a couple of weeks ago when large Russian formations crossed the border

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Can you provide a reliable news source on that, which refers to "large Russian formations"? Just over a week ago a NATO source said that around 1,000 Russian troops were . I don't know how that would contradict the story about Russian "volunteers".

SampanViking said:

Does anyone on this forum actually seriously believe that the Russians would just send a couple of Brigades here and there, if they decided to join the combat?

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Russia originally denied it had deployed troops on the ground in Crimea, and it was only much later it admitted it had been lying through its teeth. The outside response remained disjointed for quite some time whilst the deception went on. Putin is now trying the same thing, pretending that he isn't really directly assisting the rebels or egging him on.

Your response says it all. If people like you believe Putin, why wouldn't he try to pull the same trick twice?

Mr T said:

Can you provide a reliable news source on that, which refers to "large Russian formations"? Just over a week ago a NATO source said that around 1,000 Russian troops were

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. I don't know how that would contradict the story about Russian "volunteers".

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The story about Russian volunteers was on official statement from PM of DNR that said some 4 thousand Russian volunteers were fighting in the Novorossiyan army and some of them were regulars fighting while on leave from the Russian army.
This incidentally is nothing new and with the Novorossiyan army by late August being about 30,000 strong was not exactly an overwhelming proportion of the man power, although I am sure that a few hundred professionals including NCO's and junior officers, scattered throughout the groups would have made a strong qualitative difference to the whole force.

This however would not detract from this being a rebel army under rebel command.
This is not the story that the media were telling us from the 28th Aug onwards. Kendall at the BBC and Hilton on C4 were still saying the same thing during the NATO summit.
"In recent weeks, the Ukrainian Army was making consistent gains against the rebels and had nearly succeeded in isolating them in their main strongholds of Lugansk and Donetsk. Suddenly the tide was turned and the army forced to retreat. Only massive intervention from the Russian Federation would be able to do this" The actual words, pretty much identical from both channels. On top of that you had Poroshenko and Fogh of War Rasmussen screaming Russian Invasion and every Ukrainian Battalion, on every front from Lugansk to Mariupol claiming that the only reason they were defeated and retreating was because they were attacked by columns of Russian Tanks.

Well forgive me if I interpreted that as meaning that the allegation was that a large army group of the Russian Federation had crossed the border and routed the Ukrainian army in 24hours. I can only assume from your response that you believe that a smaller formation; maybe a brigade, or just a battalion, possibly a company, a platoon, or maybe just a particularly hard and scary looking squad was responsible. So in your opinion Mr T, just how few Russian regular soldiers does it take to rout the whole Ukrainian army?

It is of course a trick question, because the answer is that the narrative from Kendall, Hilton and Co is nonsense and that no Russian regular formations were required to rout the entire Ukrainian army.

from Graham Phillips (Eng subs)
[video=youtube;S4TfQmPT8-k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4TfQmPT8-k[/video]