Now an article which appeared early this morning at gazeta.ru caught my attention due to its title "Friday Decides About Peace", because it could be also translated as "Friday Decides The Fate Of The World", and it's indeed ominous as it mentions reasons (of either side) over which the peace talks might break down ...
I also checked two pro-Ukrainian military like servers (unofficial!):
and
and the situation is worse (in this thread I perhaps should say better
than I thought ... for example they both mention the retreat from Debaltsevo (Дебальцево) -- I know
shows it
-- they both say Mariupol may soon fall, and both criticize the fact that the Ukrainian forces had not been able to mount any counter-strike(s) during last 10 days in a reaction to, well, you know what
SampanViking, your next prediction please:
You flatter me Jura, but I think we are now in territory that deifies all attempts of prediction.
I will however say this:
I have always been of the opinion that the root of this whole crisis has been shadowy but powerful and quite sinister forces within the Western Alliance, which has been determined to pay back Putin for his derailing of military action against Syria last year.
The aim of the operation against him was intended to either humiliate him by forcing him to accept the loss of influence and facility in the region, or to force him to overtly intervene militarily.
The desire was to make him intervene as this would enable aforementioned forces to lobby fiercely for the reversal of multi hundred of billions worth of defence cuts from the US defence budget and pressure for increased military spending throughout other alliance members, while NATO (an organisation as bloated and inefficient as the EU, except with a few uniforms) is only too happy to have a Russian bogey man to ensure that the gravy train never reaches the end of the line.
With the signing of the Ceasefire and the start to moves for a diplomatic settlement, Putin has maintained his influence and facility, without needing to intervene with the Russian Military. This obviously is not what a lot of people want and they will now be working overtime to try and wreck it. Others of course will be determined to make it work.
Those for and those against do not divide crudely along national lines, or necessarily represent the views of the governing executive, nor do they even exist on one notional side or another, so we will now enter a very murky and dirty phase. NATO planned to meet in order to discuss actions against overt aggression, instead it found itself having to welcome through gritted teeth, the Putin peace plan. It was clear that the tone and agenda of the conference was set some time ago and that it was simply unable to adapt to the new reality and so has been made to look very foolish worldwide, talking sanctions and rapid reaction forces in Wales, while the real players talked peace in Minsk.
Nowhere I think will we see this more plainly than in the Ukraine itself. Poroshenko has signed up to the deal and put his authority and credibility behind it. Prime Minister Yatsenyuk however (Victoria Nulands personally appointed man in Kiev) has expressed his opposition.
In short, while their will be tensions on the now quiet battlefields of Novorossiya, the real fighting has now reverted back to Kiev, where all the trouble started.
