If the new strain now accounts for 60% of new infections, it almost certainly is more infectious.
And that will be reflected in the infection curve over the coming weeks.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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If the new strain now accounts for 60% of new infections, it almost certainly is more infectious.
And that will be reflected in the infection curve over the coming weeks.
Another thought of the R number. Since R number is the ratio of virus carrier to number of people the carrier transmitted to, R number must be affected by the social measures (diagnose, isolation and quarantine). A country that let the virus go free certainly will have a high R number, while a country that effectively lock-down, actively tracing contacts certainly will have a lower R number even if the virus is the same.
Therefor, even if the R number of the "new" strain is higher in UK, it does not necessarily mean it is more contiguous than older strains. It has to be compared with statistics from other countries. In other words, it could still be just an excuse of incompetent management of the UK.
Therefor, even if the R number of the "new" strain is higher in UK, it does not necessarily mean it is more contiguous than older strains. It has to be compared with statistics from other countries. In other words, it could still be just an excuse of incompetent management of the UK.
I don't think you can make that conclusion. New mutation replace the older generation does not necessarily mean it is more infectious, only statistics after some time can tell. So far, it is only possible, maybe.
Besides, as I said in #8642, social management may have impact on how "well" (infectious efficiency that we can see) the virus can spread. The extreme example is that of China, where we won't see the virus spreading regardless what strains.
The infection curve in the coming weeks is not only determined by the genetic mutation of the "new" strain but also determined by measures that UK government is taking, a total lock-down like China did will certainly make the curve different from otherwise. I am not suggesting that UK can do it, but only to demonstrate that statistic can not be reliably reflecting the effect of genetic change of the "new" strain.
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Intrepid
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In Germany, we say, after 15 minutes face to face, speaking and at a distance of less than 1.5 meters, the virus is considered to be transmitted.
If there is a higher likelihood of infection, it is less than 15 minutes and / or the distance of 1.5 meters is not sufficient. Those who have closed themselves off and no longer meet other people need not worry.
I think daily shopping with a mask at times when the shops are empty is still safe.
If there is a higher likelihood of infection, it is less than 15 minutes and / or the distance of 1.5 meters is not sufficient. Those who have closed themselves off and no longer meet other people need not worry.
I think daily shopping with a mask at times when the shops are empty is still safe.
They already have initial figures.
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‘NERVTAG’s early analysis suggest it could increase the R by 0.4 or more and although there’s considerable uncertainty it may be up to 70% more transmissible than the old variant, the original version, of the disease. This is early data and it’s subject to review.’
Thanks for the information. Let's keep an eye on its development.
