Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[supercat]

Cured (yellow) finally outnumbers death (black):



Interestingly, on 2/1/2020, while newly confirmed case increased 2597 (red), newly suspected case increased only 1556 (purple), probably indicating that substantially more diagnostic tests were done on 2/1/2020 than on 1/31/2020:

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[adiru]

Cured (yellow) finally outnumbers death (black):

View attachment 57169

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The cured can help donate plasma to help treat those in severe conditions? I know that didn't work for ebola but have they tried that in this case?

 

[ougoah]

If cured vs death is roughly 1:1 then the bloody mortality rate is about 50%!

This chart must not be explained properly. Far more people have recovered and there must be a set of conditions calling it cured. Perhaps active curative methods being tested and applied where they have found successes.

Mortality would be deaths/ infected but recovered. Which is why it's almost impossible to accurately determine at the moment unless we keep an eye on how the infected cases outside of China develop. So far one in Philippines (a Wuhan man) has passed. Going by this it would seem like the CDC and WHO estimates on M.R. is accurate and actually around 3%.

 

[adiru]

 

[manqiangrexue]

If cured vs death is roughly 1:1 then the bloody mortality rate is about 50%!

This chart must not be explained properly. Far more people have recovered and there must be a set of conditions calling it cured. Perhaps active curative methods being tested and applied where they have found successes.

Mortality would be deaths/ infected but recovered. Which is why it's almost impossible to accurately determine at the moment unless we keep an eye on how the infected cases outside of China develop. So far one in Philippines (a Wuhan man) has passed. Going by this it would seem like the CDC and WHO estimates on M.R. is accurate and actually around 3%.

"Cured" is not the correct word because the hospital simply kept the victim alive while his body fought off the virus. "Recovered" is the proper word. Old/weak people can succumb to illness very quickly but It takes a long time for the virus to purge from the body. That's why at first, you'll see almost nobody "cured" but with deaths rising every day, and thus, people who are not educated in this field may think that the majority die rather than recover. In reality, the great majority of the infected are going to be just fine, but still battling the virus in their bodies so they are neither cured nor dead. Now we are at the point where it has been long enough for some of the hospitalized to have purged the virus from their bodies so the "cured" category is rising. Later, we will undoubtedly see the number of "cured" skyrocket and the new deaths gradually decline to zero every day. In fact, the vast majority of the people who were infected never got ill enough to require treatment and they are already recovered or well on their way to it.

 

[ougoah]

"Cured" is not the correct word because the hospital simply kept the victim alive while his body fought off the virus. "Recovered" is the proper word. Old/weak people can succumb to illness very quickly but It takes a long time for the virus to purge from the body. That's why at first, you'll see almost nobody "cured" but with deaths rising every day, and thus, people who are not educated in this field may think that the majority die rather than recover. In reality, the great majority of the infected are going to be just fine, but still battling the virus in their bodies so they are neither cured nor dead. Now we are at the point where it has been long enough for some of the hospitalized to have purged the virus from their bodies so the "cured" category is rising. Later, we will undoubtedly see the number of "cured" skyrocket and the new deaths gradually decline to zero every day. In fact, the vast majority of the people who were infected never got ill enough to require treatment and they are already recovered or well on their way to it.

This is exactly why I'm opposed to these sorts of material. They are misleading. I refuse to believe only around 300 or so previously infected people have recovered - the correct term to use. Obviously the chart is indicating something else because we already know thousands have been infected and recovered while many, many thousands more are currently trying to recover and dealing with the illness.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Dr. Steven Hatfill Biological Weapons Expert says it will have to play it out and "run its course" not only in Wuhan but the greater mainland China. The host Bannon predicted this will crush China economically, and that its the end of the Xi/BRI and will give US the chance to re-route trade of all countries to go-around and bypass China bringing the global supply chain back to US and its allies whilst isolating China economically, politically, etc. They are selling this to the American people and pitching it to the world as this Chinese Belt and Road connectivity is what is allowing this virus to spread so fastly to the rest of the world and that it would behoove mankind and all nations to reconsider the security and stability of their own supply chains and basically urging everyone to pull their companies, people, trade, businesses etc out of China. This is not unlike what Wilber Ross US Commerce Secretary already stated a few days ago... seems like the goal is to use this event to pull the rug underneath China's development feets.

Yeah, that's what crazy people like Steve Bannon are praying for. Why are you giving that level of insanity a platform by presenting it here? Not every nut-job who thinks anything can lead to the collapse of China deserves a discussion. This thread was made to discuss the science of the virus and how China is dealing with it, not the fantasies of lunatics. There was a thread for that in connection to the virus, and it was shut down because there's too much hateful meaningless trash in it. Let's focus here, m'kay?

 

[ougoah]

Dr. Steven Hatfill Biological Weapons Expert says it will have to play it out and "run its course" not only in Wuhan but the greater mainland China. The host Bannon predicted this will crush China economically, and that its the end of the Xi/BRI and will give US the chance to re-route trade of all countries to go-around and bypass China bringing the global supply chain back to US and its allies whilst isolating China economically, politically, etc. They are selling this to the American people and pitching it to the world as this Chinese Belt and Road connectivity is what is allowing this virus to spread so fastly to the rest of the world and that it would behoove mankind and all nations to reconsider the security and stability of their own supply chains and basically urging everyone to pull their companies, people, trade, businesses etc out of China. This is not unlike what Wilber Ross US Commerce Secretary already stated a few days ago... seems like the goal is to use this event to pull the rug underneath China's development feets.

This plan of their's would work well if there were realistic alternatives to China. None exist. India does not have the infrastructure and fares far worse in offering the same levels of service and productivity as China for businesses. Low end manufacturing has slowly been moving out of China anyway, well before any hint of trade war. This is more due to rising income levels. Vietnam does not have the scale or infrastructure. If they go down that path, power to them, we will see how well they fare

But this is getting quite off topic already.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The hospital is almost done they should receive first patient tomorrow
As one of the emergency hospitals in Wuhan built in response to the deadly coronavirus, Huoshenshan Hospital is now complete and due to go into use on February 3. The other specialized coronavirus hospital in Wuhan, Leishenshan Hospital, will start taking patients on February 6. It's 75,000 square meters in size and will be able to accommodate 1,600 patients.

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[manqiangrexue]

Okay I understand and agree. It is just that every time I thought things cool down a bit, they turn out escalate even worse. For example, anyone still remember it was just two years ago in early Jan 2018 that news broke that AT&T and Verizon both were signing deals with Huawei to use their handsets but then US government intervened and put a stop/block to it. That news back then in and of itself was a huge big deal. I never expected that Huawei CFO was going to get arrested/kidnapped later that year, if you see in context, US never arrested a CEO/CFO extrajudicially before over a allegedly sanctions violation. That was even more huge. Then I never anticipated the Huawei getting on the entity list. Then it was bad enough that China suffer the Swine Flu and half the pigs got killed off during the Trade War forcing China to buy much more pork from US farmers and raising meat prices etc... Just when I thought China was catching a break and days after the signing of the so called Trade Deal, this new novel virus appears and regardless of whatever happened is already getting worse than SARS ever was... and now just today we read about the bird flu killing China chicken again.

It just seems like bad news poor in more and more and every time I turn my back and don't check the news for a few days something even more bad escalation happens and its always anti-China and not in China's favor... hard to remain too optimistic outlook when each time I think this is it, reality has it turning out that much worse. You see what I'm trying to convey here? Alright back on topic but I wanted to at least expound a bit that its not me that wants to blow things out of porportion here.

Everything past your first sentence, "Okay I understand and agree." should have been deleted.

You are bogged down by bad news because you are focused on little news. If you focused on big news, like China's military, economy, and technology are all moving along and expanding beautifully, then you wouldn't be jumping over every little thing. You think America likes sending Pompeo's stupid fat ass all over the world with an empty suitcase begging/threatening people not to do business with China/Huawei only to get rejected and laughed at? America cannot stop China's big good news, so it has to settle for generating as many annoying small bad news as possible. If Americans had any confidence in their competitiveness against China, they wouldn't be having fantasies about viruses defeating a country that they cannot.