Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Intrepid]

Basically, comparing the impact China vs the US on the pandemic, every area, I see as either China dealing with it much better or yet to be determined but strongly suggestive that China is dealing with it much better.

Many other countries deal with it much better than the United States. A quick response and early shutdown before the virus spreads across the country are key factors. The sooner a government takes action, the shorter the shutdown and the less the damage.

 

[Jura The idiot]

The problems discussed are literally every country's problems, except to different degrees. The major difference is that getting over COVID-19 earlier, China has been supplying a lot of things to the rest of the world as they lose even their domestic ability to produce them. China's manufacturing PMI is already over 50 and unemployment has already begun to drop.

For things that can be compared, well, America's national malaise will be much longer than China's sharp but short lockdown. There is political turmoil in the US while China is unified on defeating the virus. Because China encountered the virus in January while the US not until March really, Q1 mostly affected China, barely the US at the very last 2-3 weeks and still, Chinese GDP was 6.8% lower with the pandemic mostly behind it while American GDP is already 4.8% lower before the pandemic even came into full brunt. I have no idea how much uglier it can get in Q2 (certainly worse than 6.8%) while China's is already recovering. How many trillions did the US spend on stimulus? China needed nothing close.

Obviously, I don't have to compare number of cases and deaths for you. Basically, comparing the impact of the pandemic on China vs the US, every area, I see as either China dealing with it much better or yet to be determined but strongly suggestive that China is dealing with it much better.

based on your post, something occurred to me:

because of this pandemic, China may get caught in

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for decades to come

 

[tidalwave]

based on your post, something occurred to me:

because of this pandemic, China may get caught in

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for decades to come

Complete technology independence is way more important than income level.

 

[manqiangrexue]

based on your post, something occurred to me:

because of this pandemic, China may get caught in

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for decades to come

What is the reasoning?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

based on your post, something occurred to me:

because of this pandemic, China may get caught in

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for decades to come

No. There is literally no correlation whatsoever between any so-called "middle income trap" and the economic effects of this pandemic. There's probably a stronger correlation between Chinese growth and the lunar tides.

Moreover, China is already out of the middle income trap. Its coastal cities are already fully developed; it remains a middle income country overall because of the underdeveloped interior.

 

[Canuck place]

Complete technology independence is way more important than income level.

I also feel that's the case. Although both are important I have read that avoiding the middle income trap primarily relies on advanced technology because that's what can generate high income for countries and increase productivity. Eg. If China can make air planes and sell them to other countries automatically the income of those workers would increase.

 

[Jura The idiot]

What is the reasoning?

I'll borrow from wiki entry I linked above:

In decades to come, China may suffer from low investment, slow growth in the

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, limited industrial diversification and poor labor market conditions.

(I guess you can claim I'm making a circular argument though)

 

[tidalwave]

I also feel that's the case. Although both are important I have read that avoiding the middle income trap primarily relies on advanced technology because that's what can generate high income for countries and increase productivity. Eg. If China can make air planes and sell them to other countries automatically the income of those workers would increase.

China already out of the middle income trap as it's GDP is bit above $14Trillion, nominal GDP bit over $10,000 that's the definition of beginning advanced country level.
It has enough disposable income to support domestic industrial goods. It's good enough. So no need to worry income anymore focus on tech

 

[localizer]

The fact of the matter is that $1 trillion is not enough to help the US debt and not enough to "punish" China.

I suspect the Liu He et al. are doing some math right now.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I'll borrow from wiki entry I linked above:

In decades to come, China may suffer from low investment, slow growth in the

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, limited industrial diversification and poor labor market conditions.

(I guess you can claim I'm making a circular argument though)

That's a general economic discussion for the Chinese economics thread; I thought you said that the coronavirus would cause this, which would make it appropriate to discuss here. Yeah, COVID-19 obviously places significant economic strain making these factors worse in the short run but how long that will last and whether it is to a level that can cause a negative tipping point (against a dynamic economy whose tipping point we do not know and is constantly change) are factors that may not even be possible to evaluate now. The general economics have been hotly debated in the Chinese economics thread before and when it comes down to it, whether China can truly become a high income country, the first of its kind in the world with such a massive and diverse (from urban businessmen to villagers who barely use electricity) population, is something we will have to wait and see.