Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

vesicles

Colonel
How can you explain why Germany has a low mortality rate and perform extensive testing without over-burdening the health care system?
I think the key difference compared to other European countries is a more resilient and better Health Care infrastructure to absorb the surge, Want to know your thoughts.

I’ve actually explained this a few weeks ago. Germany’s death rate is low because they only count those who directly die of pneumonia caused by Coronavirus. Those who have been infected and die of other non-pneumonia complications, such as kidney/liver failure or cardiovascular issues, have not been counted in Germany. These Coronavirus- related deaths have been counted by all other countries, but not in Germany. Everybody plays with numbers...
 
I’ve actually explained this a few weeks ago. Germany’s death rate is low because they only count those who directly die of pneumonia caused by Coronavirus. Those who have been infected and die of other non-pneumonia complications, such as kidney/liver failure or cardiovascular issues, have not been counted in Germany. These Coronavirus- related deaths have been counted by all other countries, but not in Germany. Everybody plays with numbers...


Thanks and could be. Not disagreeing but interested if you have a source for that claim? INtrepid's source still shows the health system is handling relatively well with abundant spare capacity. This and abundance of testing could also be a major factor on low mortality rate.
 
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Skye_ZTZ_113

Junior Member
Registered Member
next two weeks will determine if US effort to combat the virus will completely fall apart, looks increasingly likely.

The only salvation at this point is actually a spike in cases and deaths in Georgia, will deter some states from acting prematurely.
At this point, even if we mirror the progression of death count, approximating a rapid drop of cases - 100k US deaths is inevitable. I would hazard a guess at 200k or even 300k if they continue to flout Quarantine 101. And that'll be merely the first wave.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
next two weeks will determine if US effort to combat the virus will completely fall apart, looks increasingly likely.

The only salvation at this point is actually a spike in cases and deaths in Georgia, will deter some states from acting prematurely.

Sadly there is a time lag between infection and death. That means by the time a spike in deaths from premature easing of restrictions becomes detected, it would already be too late to stop a second wave.

We have to remember that a second wave is going to be far more difficult to detect and confirm scientifically in the US and Europe at this point, because you will have an existing high daily confirmed infection rate that should be declining, so a few extra infections from the start of a second wave might easily get buried in the statistics. By the time the number of second wave cases overcome the declining first wave offset, it will already be full blown again, with no prospect of being controllable viable contact tracing, leaving another lockdown as the only viable option.

I do have a horrible gut feeling that this is actually what some in the US and Europe actually wants and are strenuously working towards this outcome.

The rationale would be to ‘disprove’ lockdowns and quarantines, as a means to lift pretty much all restrictions asap so they can go back to making money and enjoying their billions.

These are people who literally already live in different worlds to the rest of the general population with ultra-exclusive hangouts and armies of servants and helpers, as well as easy access to the best medical treatment money can buy, and private jets and yachts to whisk them away to safety if society actually does come crashing down around their ears as a result of their actions.

Even if there is a full blown uncontrolled outbreak, these people can easily ensure they are never touched or even inconvenienced much, whereas the lockdown is reducing their profits and inconveniencing their lives, which is what is actually unacceptable to them.
 

shanlung

Junior Member
Registered Member
the vast majority of cases (something like 90%+) were detected by active testing of Indian and Bangladeshi low-wage labourers who had been infected due to highly cramped dormitories. These are young, extremely physically fit men who are very unlikely to experience serious symptoms.


There are a lot more C19 cases in SIngapore than what was officially reported in the last 3 days.

This will make it clearer. From my WhatsApp feed

Anyone cheering yesterday's big reduction in reported cases (618) should be aware of this report:

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"The numbers are not really coming down, its a function of the [reduction in swab] tests." - Prof. Dale Fisher, NUS

Essentially, MOH has now stopped doing swab tests for dorms with huge number of cases. Anyone with symptoms in those dorms are assumed to have COVID, but they are not added to the total number of confirmed cases (since they are "assumed", not "confirmed").

I wish this point is highlighted more in news report. The public will otherwise have a false sense that things are stabilizing in the dorms.


Even with the much reduced count, Singapore overtaken Japan

1587917490550.png

The fiasco in Singapore is doomed to get worse.

From yet another of my WhatsApp feed


Malaysia appointed a medical doctor to lead the taskforce to fight covid 19. Singapore appointed 2 idiots, one an engineer and another an economist to lead the task force. Covid 19 is basically a medical issue and obviously we all know who has done a better job

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vesicles

Colonel
Thanks and could be. Not disagreeing but interested if you have a source for that claim? INtrepid's source still shows the health system is handling relatively well with abundant spare capacity. This and abundance of testing could also be a major factor on low mortality rate.

Yes, that seems to be the prevailing explanation now. A month and half ago, it wasn’t. There were articles talking about how they were only counting pneumonia cases. I can’t seem to find those articles anymore. I’ll keep digging and letting you know as soon as I find some.

With that being said, I don’t think widespread testing is the reason. If widespread testing is why their fatality is low, they should have a much bigger number of the total confirmed cases. That’s how you lower your fatality, yes? Yet, their total cases are not that much higher than other European countries. In fact, their total case numbers are actually a lot lower than Spain and Italy. In other words, Spain and Italy are doing more widespread testing than Germany. So their denominator is the same as or even smaller than others. It’s their numerator that’s so much smaller. Widespread testing won’t do anything to the numerator.

A widespread testing also means early detection. However, I don’t think early detection and treatment mean much for COVID-19. Keep in mind that we don’t have any effective treatment. This is not a tumor. If you detect it early, you can take it out and go back to your normal life. Patients infected with the coronavirus will have to rely on their own immune system to fight off the virus. When you show mild symptoms, they tell you to stay at home. What hospitals can do is to keep the patients alive when their bodies are failing, while giving the patients more time to fight. That would be late stages of the infection. Even if you detect a person has the virus, no one can and will do anything if that infected individual is showing mild or no symptoms. So in the case of the COVID-19, early detection means nothing. This is also why, in most countries including the US, people showing only mild symptoms or no symptoms are not tested.

Of course, one big benefit of early detection is to keep the infected people off the streets and prevent them from infecting others. Yet, Germany’s total case count isn’t so much different than other European countries. It’s slightly higher than the UK and slightly lower than France. So they have even more total cases than the U.K. who initially planned to do “herd immunity” and was at least a week behind other countries in Europe. So their early detection hasn’t prevented the outbreak.
 
a recent
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interview with some Russian academician by the name P. M. Chumakov (Чумаков)
who apparently exists (
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)
and says about "Chinese scientists in Wuhan laboratory" (В Китае ученые Уханьской лаборатории ...), not a literal translation:
"They did foolish, in my opinion, things like modifying the genome of a virus so that it could infect human cells."
(Они делали совершенно безумные, на мой взгляд, вещи: к примеру, вставки в геном, которые придавали вирусу способность заражать клетки человека.)

The headline is something like
"The Chinese created coronavirus while trying to develop HIV vaccine"

automatic translation should work:
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Intrepid

Major
Of course, one big benefit of early detection is to keep the infected people off the streets and prevent them from infecting others. Yet, Germany’s total case count isn’t so much different than other European countries. It’s slightly higher than the UK and slightly lower than France. So they have even more total cases than the U.K. who initially planned to do “herd immunity” and was at least a week behind other countries in Europe. So their early detection hasn’t prevented the outbreak.
Until the first week of March Germany had very effective containment. Even people not tested positiv had to quarantaine if they where so called "contact persons". Thereafter containment failed due to lack of staff to follow up every infection. The virus was only a short periode out of control to spread free, then the population began with social distancing before the rules of social distancing were officially announced.

Many people in Germany understood early on that Covid-19 is not flu. And they took the disease seriously. According to surveys, around two thirds of the population think and act accordingly.
 

Aniah

Senior Member
Registered Member
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's BS exposed.

Here is more details on the story. Canada had to elaborate further and admit the decision to leave Shanghai empty was a Canadian decision and not a result of China action or regulation. Bottom line it is result of faulty planning by Canadian authorities as the takeoff time is a Canadian decision and not a result of any Chinese restriction on how much time a cargo jet can spend on the ground in Shanghai.


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China’s foreign ministry is disputing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s contention that restrictions on how much time a cargo jet can spend on the ground in Shanghai played a part in why two aircraft
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.

Mr. Trudeau, asked to explain why two planes chartered by Canadian governments to procure medical gear from China instead came home empty, on Tuesday first cited limits on the amount of time a plane can spend on the ground .

“There are severe restrictions on the ground in China in terms of how long a plane can actually stay in their airports before having to leave – whether it’s full or not,” Mr. Trudeau said Tuesday.

It was not the only explanation he gave. Mr. Trudeau also noted that “supply lines and shipments to the airport are difficult and interrupted by checkpoints and quarantine measures.”

In Beijing, however, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday denied there are limits on ground time for cargo jets in Shanghai. He was responding to a question about Mr. Trudeau’s comments on Tuesday.

“As to the incident involving two Canadian flights returning empty, we have checked with the competent department and found relevant reports to be inaccurate,” Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, told a press briefing.

“Relevant airports and civil aviation authorities place no limit on the ground time of chartered cargo planes.”

Canada had to retract and revised their statement as

“This occurred due to on-the-ground congestion caused by a significant surge in cargo flights out of terminals at the Shanghai Airport. As a result, the intended cargo was unable to get to the plane before its required takeoff time.”
Great read but do avoid the comment section for anyone who decides to click on it. I'm losing all hope just reading through it.
 
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