thx for your kindness , just want to know How much severe case in Hubei nowadays
My question is why would Singapore as a society need so much migrant workers (representing 1/5 of population) to be able to function?
It is not possible to build high-rise buildings in low-wage countries and then transport them to Singapore. You have to bring the construction workers to the site.My question is why would Singapore as a society need so much migrant workers (representing 1/5 of population) to be able to function?
Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling studyFindings From Jan 15 to March 3, 2020, seven versions of the case definition for COVID-19 were issued by the National Health Commission in China. We estimated that when the case definitions were changed, the proportion of infections being detected as cases increased by 7·1 times (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·8–10·9) from version 1 to 2, 2·8 times (1·9–4·2) from version 2 to 4, and 4·2 times (2·6–7·3) from version 4 to 5. If the fifth version of the case definition had been applied throughout the outbreak with sufficient testing capacity, we estimated that by Feb 20, 2020, there would have been 232000 (95% CrI 161000–359000) confirmed cases in China as opposed to the 55508 confirmed cases reported.
It is not possible to build high-rise buildings in low-wage countries and then transport them to Singapore. You have to bring the construction workers to the site.
OK I've now heard of "a so-called clinical iceberg phenomenon, which is common for a disease that can cause both mild and severe illnesses like COVID-19",I haven't read it yet, will now take a closer look while cooking, looks interesting:
Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study
will be a bad post (LOL) Andy do you remember Feb 10, 2020
? I later stopped following this, because they changed reporting by "a step" of about 10k "additional" cases Feb 13, 2020 please don't nitpick, the point is (which I noticed earlier today) if those 10k are added to the upper asymptote, one gets something like 83k, the number where it'll hopefully end in continental China (as of today, it's 80651 with a minimal growth: ), so I guess you were right an initial buildup needed to be included in the model
now though I watched what's insidethe CNN, so to watch is
Last updated: April 22, 2020, 17:02 GMT
USA
StateTotal
CasesNew
CasesTotal
DeathsNew
DeathsActive
CasesTot Cases/
1M popDeaths/
1M popTotal
TestsTests/
1M popSource Georgia 20,740 +574 836 +18 19,873 2,014 81 94,072 9,135 [] [] []
56 minutes ago
OK I've now heard of "a so-called clinical iceberg phenomenon, which is common for a disease that can cause both mild and severe illnesses like COVID-19",
but I didn't get if "253000 cases" which "would have met the case definition and could have been detected by Feb 20, 2020"
did, or didn't, mean people who were actually sick?
in the process I looked back at offhand Mar 7, 2020 guess (of "something like 83k"), and it appears to be correct now (LOL)
it's based on Feb 10, 2020 estimate of about seventy-three thousand (I repost the graph below) increased, just like that, by ten thousand Mar 7, 2020
just wanted to 'close the book' here
It's a best guess IMO. Most countries other than SK didn't do that much testing and contact tracing due to overwhelmed systems. If you look at the news from NY where 3 M got it apparently, then NY also got a pretty low death rate.If the paper is indeed correct, then China should have 332K confirmed cases instead of 83K cases.
But since those extra 249K cases are milder form of infection that never developed into more serious health problem and become part of the 83K, then there is little or no fatality from them.
Does that mean that China's Covid-19 fatality rate should now be 1.4% instead of 5.6% ? Do note that 5.6% includes those "probable deaths" added last week.