Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
My question is why would Singapore as a society need so much migrant workers (representing 1/5 of population) to be able to function?

Because capitalism!

Something similar happens in Europe with migrant workers in agriculture. Despite pandemic Germany

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Same is happening in Austria,France,Italy etc. A huge amount of agricultural production in EU is produced by imported ( What's their legal status BTW? ) seasonal workers. Here in Greece thousands of workers from Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh are employed-exploited- in strawberry, watermelon, tomato, and other fields. Most of them live permanently in slums with no basic comforts such as clean and hot water. Most of them are "illegals" but who cares? They do the dirty work, ever for free.

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Link of CNN Greece about "employer" who shot 35 strawberry field workers because they asked their payment.

Now, refugee camps and these slums of landworkers likely are Coronavirus hotspots here in GR. 150 positives out of 400 tests in refugee camp in Kranidi, GR two days ago.
 

Intrepid

Major
My question is why would Singapore as a society need so much migrant workers (representing 1/5 of population) to be able to function?
It is not possible to build high-rise buildings in low-wage countries and then transport them to Singapore. You have to bring the construction workers to the site.
 
I haven't read it yet, will now take a closer look while cooking, looks interesting:
Findings From Jan 15 to March 3, 2020, seven versions of the case definition for COVID-19 were issued by the National Health Commission in China. We estimated that when the case definitions were changed, the proportion of infections being detected as cases increased by 7·1 times (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·8–10·9) from version 1 to 2, 2·8 times (1·9–4·2) from version 2 to 4, and 4·2 times (2·6–7·3) from version 4 to 5. If the fifth version of the case definition had been applied throughout the outbreak with sufficient testing capacity, we estimated that by Feb 20, 2020, there would have been 232000 (95% CrI 161000–359000) confirmed cases in China as opposed to the 55508 confirmed cases reported.
Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study
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Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
It is not possible to build high-rise buildings in low-wage countries and then transport them to Singapore. You have to bring the construction workers to the site.

Gents, this is a the corona virus thread, this is not about how egregious nations are that employ migrant workers, that has no place on the Sino Defense Forum, unless somebody is hiring mercs!
 
56 minutes ago
I haven't read it yet, will now take a closer look while cooking, looks interesting:
Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study
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OK I've now heard of "a so-called clinical iceberg phenomenon, which is common for a disease that can cause both mild and severe illnesses like COVID-19",

but I didn't get if "253000 cases" which "would have met the case definition and could have been detected by Feb 20, 2020"

did, or didn't, mean people who were actually sick?

in the process I looked back at offhand Mar 7, 2020 guess (of "something like 83k"), and it appears to be correct now (LOL)
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will be a bad post (LOL) Andy do you remember Feb 10, 2020

? I later stopped following this, because they changed reporting by "a step" of about 10k "additional" cases Feb 13, 2020 please don't nitpick, the point is (which I noticed earlier today) if those 10k are added to the upper asymptote, one gets something like 83k, the number where it'll hopefully end in continental China (as of today, it's 80651 with a minimal growth:
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), so I guess you were right an initial buildup needed to be included in the model

it's based on Feb 10, 2020 estimate of about seventy-three thousand (I repost the graph below) increased, just like that, by ten thousand Mar 7, 2020

just wanted to 'close the book' here

virus15.jpg
 
Yesterday at 7:09 PM
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the CNN, so to watch is

USA
State
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Active
Cases
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Deaths/
1M pop
Total
Tests
Tests/
1M pop
Source
Georgia20,740+574836+1819,8732,0148194,0729,135[
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] [
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] [
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]
Last updated: April 22, 2020, 17:02 GMT
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now though I watched what's inside
President Trump says he disagrees with Gov. Kemp's decision to re-open Georgia businesses
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the Georgia part begins at 03:40
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
56 minutes ago
OK I've now heard of "a so-called clinical iceberg phenomenon, which is common for a disease that can cause both mild and severe illnesses like COVID-19",

but I didn't get if "253000 cases" which "would have met the case definition and could have been detected by Feb 20, 2020"

did, or didn't, mean people who were actually sick?

in the process I looked back at offhand Mar 7, 2020 guess (of "something like 83k"), and it appears to be correct now (LOL)
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



it's based on Feb 10, 2020 estimate of about seventy-three thousand (I repost the graph below) increased, just like that, by ten thousand Mar 7, 2020

just wanted to 'close the book' here

virus15.jpg

If the paper is indeed correct, then China should have 332K confirmed cases instead of 83K cases.

But since those extra 249K cases are milder form of infection that never developed into more serious health problem and become part of the 83K, then there is little or no fatality from them.

Does that mean that China's Covid-19 fatality rate should now be 1.4% instead of 5.6% ? Do note that 5.6% includes those "probable deaths" added last week.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
If the paper is indeed correct, then China should have 332K confirmed cases instead of 83K cases.

But since those extra 249K cases are milder form of infection that never developed into more serious health problem and become part of the 83K, then there is little or no fatality from them.

Does that mean that China's Covid-19 fatality rate should now be 1.4% instead of 5.6% ? Do note that 5.6% includes those "probable deaths" added last week.
It's a best guess IMO. Most countries other than SK didn't do that much testing and contact tracing due to overwhelmed systems. If you look at the news from NY where 3 M got it apparently, then NY also got a pretty low death rate.
 
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