Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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Situation in the U.S. on April 13 at 8:00 pm EDT:
Notice: the Johns Hopkins website seems to have jumped the shark and posted 10,000 more new cases than the other 2 websites I linked to. So I took the liberty of taking 10,000 off from their number of new cases
I don't think John Hopkins jumped the shark.
If anything, the John Hopkins numbers are more accurate than the CDC numbers.
Intrepid
Major
All counting methods have errors. The trend is more interesting. And if you always look at the same source, that should be reasonably accurate.
It is important whether the number of victims is well documented. Then you can deduce from the ratio of victims to infected how high the number of unreported cases will be.
The following assessment can be derived from previous experience: If the number of victims is approx. 1% of the number of people infected 11 days ago, the number of unreported cases is relatively small. Otherwise you have to extrapolate the number of cases with a corresponding factor.
It is important whether the number of victims is well documented. Then you can deduce from the ratio of victims to infected how high the number of unreported cases will be.
The following assessment can be derived from previous experience: If the number of victims is approx. 1% of the number of people infected 11 days ago, the number of unreported cases is relatively small. Otherwise you have to extrapolate the number of cases with a corresponding factor.
Jura The idiot
General
the country has been under partial lockdown for one month today, and today for the first time I was able to purchase face masks, which I did for the fun of it, as I think they're really overpriced LOL 180 Czech crowns is $7.34 (seven dollars thirty-four cents) according to google, for a five-pack:
I guess I'll keep using my wife's scarf LOL
I guess I'll keep using my wife's scarf LOL
plawolf
Lieutenant General
A fairly good piece on the impact of COVID19 on total deaths within the UK, and illustrates the potential scale of the under reporting of COVID19 deaths in the UK.
Coronavirus: One in five deaths now linked to virus
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
More than one in five deaths being seen in England and Wales is linked to coronavirus, figures show.
The Office for National Statistics data showed the virus was mentioned on 3,475 death certificates in the week ending 3 April.
It helped push the total number of deaths seen in that week to more than 16,000 - a record high and 6,000 more than expected at this time of year.
Normally the number of deaths falls as winter ends.
This is because there is less flu circulating.
'Hugely significant'
ONS official Nick Stripe said it was clear the coronavirus pandemic had reversed that trend, saying the rising number of deaths was "hugely significant" given it had happened at the start of April.
"This is not normal," he added.
But what is not clear is what else is contributing to this spike in deaths - the coronavirus cases contributed just over half of the "extra" 6,000 deaths.
It could be that cases of coronavirus are going undetected or other factors related to the lockdown and outbreak are having an impact, such as people not seeking treatment for other conditions or mental health deaths going up.
The 16,000 weekly deaths is the highest number seen since the ONS started publishing data in 2005 and tops the highest toll during the 2015 flu outbreak.
Deaths outside hospitals
The government's daily figures for coronavirus deaths only look at hospital cases.
It has led to suggestions there has been an under-reporting of deaths in care homes and other community settings.
The ONS data does look at deaths elsewhere by analysing death certificates rather than relying solely on hospital records.
It shows that one in 10 coronavirus deaths this year having been in the community.
It comes amid reports of a growing number of outbreaks in care homes.
These figures - because they rely on death certificates - relate to a period nearly two weeks ago.
If the reports coming out of the care sector are right it could be that there has been a spike in deaths over the past fortnight or that death certificates are not picking up all the cases.
What is being said about care home cases?
Industry leaders from Age UK, Marie Curie, Care England, Independent Age and the Alzheimer's Society have written to Health Secretary Matt Hancock .
They have also called for a daily update on deaths in the care system.
It comes after the government confirmed there had been coronavirus outbreaks at more than 2,000 care homes in England - although they did not specify the number of deaths that had occurred.
The figures prompted the charity Age UK to claim coronavirus is "running wild" in care homes for elderly people.
"The current figures are airbrushing older people out like they don't matter," Caroline Abrahams, the charity's director, said.
Britain's largest care home operator said coronavirus was present in two-thirds - 232 - of the group's care homes.
Its director, Sir David Behan, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that coronavirus deaths represented about one-third of all deaths at HC-One's care homes over the last three weeks. HC-One has 329 care homes throughout England, Scotland and Wales.
Care England, the umbrella body for care homes, has estimated there have been nearly 1,000 deaths from coronavirus in care homes, leaving social care as "the neglected front line".
About 410,000 people live in care homes in the UK, living in 11,300 care homes for older people supplied by 5,500 different providers.
Vietnam sends PPE to the US. To be fair, it was bought by the US and the Vietnamese government expedited the shipment as top priority.
Airlines might not be flying but FEDEX is, shuttling Asian made PPE, masks and medical equipment to the US. The US not producing essential medical stuff?
Airlines might not be flying but FEDEX is, shuttling Asian made PPE, masks and medical equipment to the US. The US not producing essential medical stuff?
Intrepid
Major
I think there are many "measurement errors":
In addition, the flu wave has come to an earlier end due to the rules of social distancing - there are fewer flu deaths this winter.
There are fewer deaths from traffic accidents.
But people die who have not gone to hospital for treatment needed for fear of Covid-19 infection or whose treatment has been postponed.
Some effects will cancel each other out, others will slightly falsify the numbers. They do this in a similar way in all states.
We will see numbers that are no longer correct when the pandemic unfolds in the third world. I don't think every victim will be counted then.
- Corona dead are not recognized and counted as such.
- People who would have died now anyway are counted as corona dead (there are corresponding indications from Hamburg, where all Covid 19 victims are autopsied).
In addition, the flu wave has come to an earlier end due to the rules of social distancing - there are fewer flu deaths this winter.
There are fewer deaths from traffic accidents.
But people die who have not gone to hospital for treatment needed for fear of Covid-19 infection or whose treatment has been postponed.
Some effects will cancel each other out, others will slightly falsify the numbers. They do this in a similar way in all states.
We will see numbers that are no longer correct when the pandemic unfolds in the third world. I don't think every victim will be counted then.
Intrepid
Major
Around 1,000,000 people die in Germany every year; this year there will be 1,010,000. You will hardly notice that. The German health care system is unlikely to be overwhelmed by Covid-19, according to a statement in a press conference today.
In the US, I estimate 4,000,000 people die every year? There will be maybe 4,100,000 this year. Could one notice that in the statistics? The American health care system is already overloaded in some places and mass graves are being excavated.
In the US, I estimate 4,000,000 people die every year? There will be maybe 4,100,000 this year. Could one notice that in the statistics? The American health care system is already overloaded in some places and mass graves are being excavated.
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