Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
@solarz @plawolf

Great, let's do an actual mathematical analysis. Here's my request to you gentlemen:

1) Show me 2 histograms of the of the COVID-19 fatalities (bins of age group and level of compromised immune system.)

2) Then plot the same histograms for the Black Death.

Once you see this for yourself, then we will talk about "exponential growth" etc.
 

SteelBird

Colonel
Stock up on supplies and avoid crowds. Stay home if you can.
I did what you said but I need to work. If I don't work, how can I survive? I think this is what the whole are thinking and led to the mass outbreak in Europe. In short, everything is uncertain. What I am afraid the most is this is only the beginning. We are expecting the worse and finally worst.
 

solarz

Brigadier
@solarz @plawolf

Great, let's do an actual mathematical analysis. Here's my request to you gentlemen:

1) Show me 2 histograms of the of the COVID-19 fatalities (bins of age group and level of compromised immune system.)

2) Then plot the same histograms for the Black Death.

Once you see this for yourself, then we will talk about "exponential growth" etc.

You know that's a fallacy right?
 

vesicles

Colonel
The real tragedy here is how fragile society has become. So many lives have been negatively effected, and all because of a flu with a realistic fatality rate of less than 1%. Even assuming the inflated rate of 2%, it's not exactly the Bubonic Plague, is it?

Yet, the entire world economy has come to standstill because the WHO/CDC issued overblown statements (just like they did with Ebola), then the media started issuing even more irresponsible statements and politicizing the issue, which started a chain reaction where the masses started demanding "action," which resulted in the governments panicking, which the media hyped up again to justify their original hype, thus creating this negative feedback loop. In the end, businesses are going bankrupt, people are getting laid off, society is "distancing" itself from each other (fighting in grocery stores over water bottles... in countries with the greatest supply of fresh water) all due to purely psychosomatic effects of mass hysteria, fostered by the media and corrupted organizations.

This whole episode will be studied by historians as a case-study of how ridiculous our entire society had become at this point in history. If all this mass-hysteria is the result of this fairly benign flu, what will happen when a real threat comes?

The fatality rate of influenza is not less than 1%. It's ~0.1-0.2%. that's a matter of 5-10 fold difference. Even assuming the COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 2% (it's actually higher than, at ~3-4%), thats 10-20 times higher than the flu. This year, in the US alone, between 9 million and 45 million got the flu and 12,000 - 61,000 died. If we don't do anything, same number of people will be infected with COVID-19 and up to 600K people will die. That's the casualty suffered in the entire American civil war.

In the population of > 60 years of age, the fatality rate is 8 - 15%. We are seeing this unfold at that Washington nursing home as we speak. This is not something we joke about.

the whole purpose of all the social distancing and isolation is to keep the total number of the infected people below the max capacity of our health care system. As long as our health care system can handle it, we should be ok. That means enough ventilators for those who need them when their lungs have failed. when you don't control the total number, a tsunami of patients rushes to the hospital --> not enough equipment to save people --> patients die --> your fatality rate WILL skyrocket. We are seeing this in Wuhan, in Italy and in Washington and New York. This is why it is so important NOT to overwhelm the health care system.

No matter how advanced your equipment is. If you have 100 dying patients with their lungs filled with fluid and only a few hours to live, but only 10 ventilators on hand, guess what's going to happen? This is not a worse version of flu. This is a megalodon of flu, a Godzilla of flu.
 

shanlung

Junior Member
Registered Member
It was on 6th February2020 when I wrote

“What we all witnessing now is the first phase. The starting point of 2019 new corona virus in Wuhan and China.
And we seen the response made in quarantining and incredible speed of organising and building hospitals and facilities in holding and treatment.
And may in time, hold and halt this virus totally in China.
We also see the mocking and laughters and demonising of China's efforts , despicable cartoons in guise of free speech to laugh and the taking advantage of this to further rub the face of China in the mud.

BUT

The next phase is inevitable. Not that I wish for that to happen, but happen that will be.

That virus is now already in many countries and with the fore warnings given by China. Despit the warnings, are those countries capable and able and have the dedicated expertise shown by China in containing and holding and treating this virus? Can USA, or any other country , build hospitals from bare fields and equipt that in a matter of days?

Perhaps so, but sadly, not to the extent demonstrated by China.

In the days and weeks to come, that virus will be spreading and spreading in USA, in Denmark, in Europe , in Africa , India and Australia.
Chinese and China and all decent folks will sorrow and pray for them and help them best they can in USA, Denmark and others .
And maybe, hopefully, the insults and savage mockery they shown to China will stop as they all desperately trying not to be sick and die themselves.

Chinese and China and all decent folks will not be mocking and laughing and taking advantage or insulting them the way USA, Denmark and others had done and still doing to China in the initial crisis.

We will wait , and see.
Phase 2 is just starting. ”

That was into Facebook, my WhatsApp groups and other forums discussing covid19. To the mockery and laughter of so many at what I written then.

Why not? As at that time, a mere handful of cases outside of China. And folks and Western politicians felt the crisis in China due to the stupidity and incapablity of Communist Chinese in failure to bring that under control. Controls the Western countries felt that they will do so easily and well in their own countries. Thus spending the warning time they were given to counting coup and laughing and relishing the sickness and death in China.


It was on March 16th around midnight Singapore time that I plotted the covid19 cases of China , against the rest of the world outside China. That showed the numbers of the rest of the world outside China to be more than China.
View attachment 58493

That it taken from 6th February to 16 March for numbers of rest of the world to match that of China.
Or about 40 days.


As of this morning 19th March 2020, we find that they are no more new covid19 cases in China if imported cases from overseas are discounted. And that phase 1 of covid19 in China is over. That if that can be done by China with grit and determination, then why not in the rest of the world as well?

As of midnight Singapore time Mar 18th, there were 127577 cases for rest of the world.
View attachment 58494


As at 14:45 Singapore time 19th March ,
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showed 219, 367 cases all over the world., with China at 80,928.
View attachment 58495

Or 138, 429 new covid cases for rest of the world.


I must assume at that rate, the number of corvid19 for the rest of the world will be doubled that of the cases in China by midnight of 19th March Singapore time.
That it will require only 3 days from 16th March to be double that of numbers of China when it required 40 days initially to match that of China.

Am I the only one afraid of what I am seeing? Am I too much of a coward? Can you tell me where you bought your blinkers and rose tinted glasses as I will like to have that more than toilet papers.

Phase 2 is well on its way. This is just the start of the beginning.


Covid19 spread even more and manufacturing and supply chains all crashing or will be crashing in days and weeks to come. That might well include farming and food production at later stage.

Do we still want to fight and argue? Will that be useful and fruitful to mankind getting out of this mess?

As said so earlier and repeated here yet again.
And that phase 1 of covid19 in China is over. That if that can be done by China with grit and determination, then why not in the rest of the world as well

Or should we all plan and work together and cooperate with each other.
Our one and only choice


My friends in USA and all over the world.
Take care and keep yourself and your family safe.


It is not quite 12 midnight of 19 March. It is at 23:23, quite close enough.
I had asked, had begged, of those in my WhatsApp groups and Facebook to shred my numbers and prove what an idiot I was to write all that.

[4:42 PM, 3/19/2020] shanlung9: And I do hope very glaring faults be found. And what I written to be utter rubbish, and not harbinger of things to come.

[4:42 PM, 3/19/2020] Please find something very wrong with my numbers. If in 3 days, covid19 can double , then what about the next doubling? Yet another 3 days time? and what in still yet another 3 days? Dennis or Wilfred, and all others send it on to other groups. For them to laugh at if what I wrote was just rubbish and to cheer them up
[4:42 PM, 3/19/2020] shanlung9: Or tell me where to get your rose tinted glasses and blinkers. I think I need that more than toilet papers

[4:43 PM, 3/19/2020] shanlung9: No comments on my numbers of covid19? Nothing wrong with my extrapolation? If I see a guy jumping off 20 storey building,and he pass the 10th floor, can I assume the ending be messy? I hope and wish I am wrong. But do you all think I am wrong?

Utter silence from all my critics who never failed to rubbish me whenever they could in the past. Counting coup on me was their favourite pastime other than oggling nekkid peejures of girls and ladies. But pure silence from all of them.

I got paranoid enough at my numbers that I just bought from supermarket another 3 kilos of red rice and a kilo of quinoa and a kilo of oats and kilo of chia and kilo of millet. Bought a number of cans of tuna, corned beef and corned pork and ham and bacon last couple of days just in case. Didnt buy toilet rolls , as I and my wife got bidgets. And if no food, nothing in the gut that required that paper work to be done either.

As of now, the number is 229,917 . Or just 10k short of double of China toll, give or take a k.

Capturebbbb.JPG

No one in Facebook wanted to rip me apart

I am surprised that no one here cares to rip me apart either. And I thought I had a lot of folks here that love to prove me wrong.

So go on ahead.
Prove me wrong and that I am an idiot for writing what I wrote!
 

SteelBird

Colonel
I'm afraid something very bad is waiting for Iranian people
Iranians defy no-travel warning during Nowruz
Heavy traffic was reported on all highways linking Tehran to other parts of Iran on Wednesday, as residents scrambled to leave the capital ahead of
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, the Persian new year festival, which begins on 20 March, despite official warnings against non-essential travel.

“Travelling during Nowruz, means welcoming death,” Alireza Zali, the head of the disease control task force in Tehran, told the city’s residents ahead of the two-week holiday, reported the
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news agency.

The travel warning is part of the government’s efforts to contain the fast-spreading
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, which has killed more than 1,100 people in the country.
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solarz

Brigadier
You're confused. It would've been a fallacy if I made a claim and asked you for evidence. But I made no claims in that post while requesting data.

You made the implicit claim by asking for comparison with Black Death.

Look, we've already given you the numbers. If you're not interested in seeing the reality, then by all means go out and have fun. It's your life.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
You made the implicit claim by asking for comparison with Black Death.

And what you're doing right now is semantics, while I'm requesting data.

Look, we've already given you the numbers.

Have you though, really? A bunch of stats you saw in a newspaper and terms like "exponential growth" qualify as "numbers"? That's how easy it is? I'm requesting an actual mathematical analysis. Have you given me the requested histograms? Please show me a distribution of this disease, compared against something like the Plague (or even a projection of something like the Avian flu, if it mutates to person-to-person transmission), by age group and level of compromised immune system, and then we will discuss "the numbers."

If you're not interested in seeing the reality, then by all means go out and have fun. It's your life.

Will do, thanks for your permission sir.
 
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vesicles

Colonel
@solarz @plawolf

Great, let's do an actual mathematical analysis. Here's my request to you gentlemen:

1) Show me 2 histograms of the of the COVID-19 fatalities (bins of age group and level of compromised immune system.)

2) Then plot the same histograms for the Black Death.

Once you see this for yourself, then we will talk about "exponential growth" etc.

Yes, black death is terrible. However, it doesn't mean that anything less than black death should be dismissed. The two atom bombs dropped on Japan did not kill nearly as many people as the black death. Does that mean we should shrug off and say the nuclear bombs are nothing to be afraid of?
 
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