Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Hendrik_2000]

The evidence still suggests it's related to the wildlife trade. It's possible that the SARS-COV-2 made the jump from animal to human outside China, somewhere on a wildlife trafficking route from Asia/Africa to China, then started a superspreading event in the Wuhan Nanhua seafood market. But it is still more likely that the first jump occured somewhere inside China and near Wuhan.

Remember COVID-19 is a disease that spreads very fast and place a huge burden on the healthcare system. It cannot be hidden for long. The American healthcare system still hasn't collapsed. It is not impossible that someone in the America had a bad encounter with a bat or other wildlife then pass it to Wuhan without triggering much spreading in the US. But it's extremely unlikely. I don't think we should lower ourselves to the level of Tom Cotton.

What do you mean by the disease is not widely spread read this statistic Another thing the virus mutate all the time It might not that vicious in the early stage but by the time it get to Wuhan it become very highly contagious

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CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (

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). The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness

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.

 

[AndrewS]

I DID lose my job Andrew! and NO I did NOT receive GOVT healthcare, I was unemployed for nearly 2 years, in fact Obamacare individual mandate fined me a couple of thousand bucks for NOT having health insurance,,, I can assure you I was very poor at that time with NO money in savings, and yes it did hurt me, my wife, and our children....

I used 763 US dollars a month to pay my Cobra health ins for the first 18 months until that ran out and my previous employer cancelled my coverage, then I was fined for each month thereafter until I found a job with healthcare coverage....

So that nonsense about the government providing basic healthcare is NOT true, doesn't happen, didn't happen.....

I'm saying that the US government SHOULD be providing basic healthcare.

I'm not saying the US government healthcare policy is actually working.
From a European perspective, we see the US healthcare system as fundamentally broken because it is privatised and tied to a job.
If someone is unemployed, we wouldn't expect them to be paying large amounts of money for basic healthcare.

end off topic: anyway, this is the coronavirus, no unsubstantiated rumours thread, so back on topic

Hospitals in the US do not turn away patients, they treat them, they have for a very long time, the money they don't collect from those patients is "charged back" to the patients, who have health care and do pay... so we all pay higher prices for those who are treated without medical coverage.

So NO ONE who "presents" at a hospital with coronavirus symptoms will be turned away, they will be placed in isolation and treated....

Think about what you've just written.
All the uninsured in the USA are flocking to hospitals because they know they will get treated without having to pay upfront.

The 2 biggest problems are:
a) In general, seeing a hospital doctor is far more expensive than seeing a family doctor initially. So overall, everyone is paying more.
b) All those suspected COVID-19 cases will infect far more people in crowded hospital waiting rooms and potentially the entire hospital medical staff. Again, the US would be better off providing the uninsured with basic medical care and access to a family doctor in the first place.

Now the govt is making a valiant effort to make sure people are cared for and provided the outstanding medical care that so many continue to take for granted.

And here is another problem.
Whilst there are individuals in the US government making valiant efforts - they are hampered by the privatised nature of US healthcare.

The CDC don't have any idea how many people are actually being tested everyday, because of the fragmented nature of the system.

Also, the healthcare insurers have PLAINLY said treatment for a confirmed COVID-19 infection will require paying the deductible.
But the average deductible for subsidised policies is now over $4300.
So suppose a COVID-19 patient tests positive, but decides they can't afford to be treated?

Source below

The website eHealthInsurance.com estimated that premiums for subsidized Obamacare policies averaged $393 a month in 2017 for individuals, a 99% increase since 2013. And they came with an average annual deductible of $4,328. Costs for family policies skyrocketed 140% during the same period, with premiums hitting $1,021 a month in 2018 with an annual deductible topping $8,350.

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[AndrewS]

The Wuhan market was already thoroughly disinfected on Jan 1.

What we know

The virus jumped from animal to human.
The virus spreads very fast.
Once a lot of people were infected the healthcare system will be overwhelmed.

So the evidence still suggest that the first jump is related to the wild-life trade, and there was no major spread in places with good medical surveillance system before it started to spread in Wuhan. The scenarios

1. Jumped in Wuhan or somewhere near Wuhan
2. Jumped in China but not close to Wuhan, but the patient 0 didn't spread the virus to other city before spreading it to Wuhan.
3. Jumped outside China, but the patient 0 didn't spread the virus to other city before spreading it to Wuhan.

As we assume the patient 0 played some role in wild-life trade, the trip from the place of original jump to Wuhan was likely over land in some truck, not air travel or high speed rail. As the further the original jump was to Wuhan, they more likely patient 0 would spread the disease somewhere else along the way before spreading it to Wuhan. 1 is more likely.

I did a post a few pages back, looking at the academic paper on the ancestry of COVID-19.

Basically, the Group C strain was the Wuhan outbreak.
But Group C came from the Group B strain.
And Group B came from the Group A strain.

Group A was only detected in Guangdong, not in Wuhan.

That would indicate COVID-19 definitely came from outside Wuhan.
And that Guangdong is likely where it originally came from.

 

[OppositeDay]

I did a post a few pages back, looking at the academic paper on the ancestry of COVID-19.

Basically, the Group C strain was the Wuhan outbreak.
But Group C came from the Group B strain.
And Group B came from the Group A strain.

Group A was only detected in Guangdong, not in Wuhan.

That would indicate COVID-19 definitely came from outside Wuhan.
And that Guangdong is likely where it originally came from.

Yes that isn't unexpected. Guangdong would probably sit on any wildlife trafficking route into China. However, one shouldn't thereby conclude the animal to human jump originally occurred in Guangdong. We need data from countries like Vietnam. It's possible the jump happened earlier in the chain.

 

[OppositeDay]

Who appointed this idiot?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238113459234934785

Conspiracy theory is not helpful. He does not have the qualities needed for a FM spokesperson. He should be fired, now.

 

[vesicles]

Covid19 did not share the same opinion.
And in extrapolating from the normal flu supposed to die off in hot weather.

Singapore got the flu here all the time.
Perhaps flu in Singapore not informed that they should keel over and die off in warm weather.
I said previously that the body temperature is about 36C. Then what if that person develope a fever to go even higher?
Wouldnt that person be cured of covid and flu?

How about erecting saunas and steam baths instead of hospitals and chuck the coviders inside to bake?
As bonus, can chuck those with flu inside as well to heal, or to kill off those pesky viruses.

No need to worry no more of vaccines and all other troubles do we?

A flu season starts as temperature goes down, peaks in the winter, and slowly calms down in the spring. The same trend has been carried out since we started to keep track of these things. That doesn't mean they are all dead in the summer. It's just that they are less active and become sluggish at high temperatures. That means less people get sick. simple as that. Coronaviruses and influenza hate hot weather. That's a medical fact accepted by all medical personnel in the world. Many experiments have consistently demonstrated this fact for many decades. No need to argue about that.

About fever. Typical influenza and Coronaviruses are killed at 50-60oC. Many outside concrete, asphalt and metal surfaces, especially in downtowns with tall builders trapping the hot air, under the sun in the summer get even hotter than that. So in the summer, viruses cannot survive long on those surfaces, a few seconds as opposed to many hours and up to days at low temps <10oC. Our body temperature can never get that high (well, hopefully not that high). 41/42oC would be extremely high for us. Our brain will be literally roasted to a scrambled egg if our body temperature gets higher than 44oC for a while. Viruses are perfectly fine at these temperatures. So the purpose of a fever is never to directly kill the virus. A fever is an immune response. As I have described before, our immune response is a highly energy costly process. We need an energy boost to kickstart the process. A higher body temperature kickstarts the immune response. We need that extra energy to start pumping out immune cells and send them to the site of infection.

About sauna and hot bath. Keep in mind that we are warm blooded. No matter how high the surrounding temperature, our body will try to maintain a constant temperature. That's why you sweat so much in an sauna. Sweating is a cooling mechanism. As the sweat melts on your skin (an endothermic process that absorbs heat), your blood under the skin cools down. Your circulation will take the cooler blood to the entire body to cool you down, thus maintaining your body temperature between 37 and 38oC. You certainly do not hope to get your body temperature too high. Our brain is very fragile and very sensitive to temperature. This is also why many people experience deadly problems when they stay in sauna for too long. Their bodies' cooling mechanism stops working, and their body temperature gets too high and causes high blood pressure, blood clot, organ failure and brain damage. Not a good strategy to fight infections.

Similarly, many maintain a myth that drinking alcohol will warm you up in a cold weather. That's actually a very bad idea. In a cold weather, your skin will first be exposed to the cold temp. Your blood will be cool. In order to protect your internal organs and your brain, which need an ideal temperature of ~37oC to function, your body slows down circulation. So your cold blood under the skin stays there for longer. That's why you feel cold. When you drink alcohol, your circulation picks up. The cold blood under your skin will be sent to your organs and brain. Yes, your limbs will feel better because the warm blood inside your body is now sent to your limbs. At the same time, the cold blood has now reached your organs and brain, cooling them down and causing them to stop working. Bad idea! Yes, you will feel better, but at the cost of damaging your crucial organs.

 

[getready]

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Interesting that Chengdu plants for j20 sets up productions lines to make products for battling this epidemic

 

[getready]

Does anyone think this is appropriate? Students in Belgium, the girl in the middle was even puling her eyes back. This is the sort of things I used to see when I was a boy in the 70s. Never I thought I will ever see that again!

http://instagr.am/p/B9kMkOBJwvZ/

Is it me or does Netherlands have disproportionate numbers of coronavirus racist stuff like this against Asians recently?

 

[getready]

A co-worker of mine lives in the same town as that lawyer that spread it to 9+ people, New Rochelle. They likely took the same train each day to commute to work. Co-worker has been coughing and feeling sick since last Thursday, but keeps on insisting its just a sinus infection. The county that town is in, Westchester, has over 100 confirmed cases already.

And if you do, wear mask.
I was a dis believer in wearing mask.
But this made me rethink my stand.
N95 still unbearable to wear for long time. But I use surgical mask now, after reading how that one man spread virus to 9 people.
And the exhortations by Xi Dada that all in China to wear masks.
I believe in him more than I belive in the Dotard and his gang and the Ministers of Singapore telling us all no need to wear masks.

Read this and you decide

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COVID-19 can be spread before it causes symptoms, when it produces symptoms like those of the common cold, and as many as 12 days after recovery...
The findings confirm that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing, even without coughing, he said.

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Here in Aus, public are still advised not necessary to wear one, it should only be priority for health care and medical staff, and definitely for people who are sick to prevent spreading others.

 

[Jura The idiot]

thought I might share what I've now noticed (through ORNL PR stuff

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):

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