Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[shanlung]

Welcome to our forum. And now you have met our Jura. We all tread carefully when he's around! Lol

But I find him nice and pleasant.
Especially after being placed into ignore bin.

 

[shanlung]

Here in Aus, public are still advised not necessary to wear one, it should only be priority for health care and medical staff, and definitely for people who are sick to prevent spreading others.

Strangely China was hit the hardest .
And from all indications, taking great care for their medical staff.
Yet China was so adamant that ALL MUST WEAR MASKS.

I think countries who are not prepared and do not even have enough masks for their own medical staff that go mealy mouthing about priority for health care to whitewash their own lack of preparations and to continue the pretense that they are the LEADERS
You of course can chose to think otherwise.

And sacrifice yourself for the Greater Good of your country.
Singapore I presume?

 

[Jura The idiot]

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and I'm waiting for fresh Italian numbers to appear at

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[localizer]

Now people see why China had a slow reaction initially, but pulled through.

 

[Quickie]

I pointed out there would be a time-induced distortion with your formula. You then suggested



Now please tell me if the 'current average daily death' in your formula current average daily death / ("average daily death + average daily cured") uses average daily death since the beginning of the outbreak til now, or average daily death in the last few days. If it is the former, explain how your second formula is different from your first formula (the one that uses sum of daily death). If it's the latter (which I assumed it to be since I assumed your second formula was different from your first formula), then there will be a time-induced distortion.

In any case I hope you can see how your original estimation method, which was "daily death" / "daily cured", would have the time lag related problem that I was trying to explain to you in the last few posts.

Do you really know what you're talking about?

If you're using the data from beginning to the end (or current value), it doesn't really matter if it's "the sum of" or it's the "average value" since mortality rate is a ratio, meaning they both end up having the same value.

In any case I hope you can see how your original estimation method, which was "daily death" / "daily cured", would have the time lag related problem that I was trying to explain to you in the last few posts.

If you calculate "daily death"/ ("daily cured + daily death") for a single day, the result would be quite variable within a certain range as it's just a single point data. There's no such thing as time lag related problem about it.

Since you were so determined, I took the effort to type you the proper formula which was

average daily death / ("average daily death + average daily cured")

Why don't you follow the advice in my previous post i.e.

The epidemic has been going on for about one and a half month now (long enough for the curve to stabilize) and there is only 5% of unresolved cases outside of Hubei in China.

Take a look at the mortality rate outside Hubei in this graph. The epidemic is at end-stage and it's stabilizing at 0.88%.

If you have the time to calculate the mortality rate at the stabilized part of the curve i.e. 02/27 to 03/11 (and possibly right through the end of the epidemic) you will see that there will be no distortion.

 

[Gatekeeper]

You are damn if you do, and you are damn if you don't! Do you want China to make it or not?

China was producing 116 million masks per day of February 29, including a mix of disposable and high-end masks like the American-designed N95 model worn by President Xi Jinping on his trip on Tuesday to Wuhan. Photo: Xinhua
Global Economy
Coronavirus: China’s mask-making juggernaut cranks into gear, sparking fears of over-reliance on world’s workshop
China is now making more than 100 million masks a day, up from 20 million before the coronavirus outbreak, and may start to export more to other countries
Mask shortages elsewhere once more raise the debate about an over-reliance on China, with critics pointing to a lack of US industrial policy.

The rest of the article from SCMP

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[Gatekeeper]

A flu season starts as temperature goes down, peaks in the winter, and slowly calms down in the spring. The same trend has been carried out since we started to keep track of these things. That doesn't mean they are all dead in the summer. It's just that they are less active and become sluggish at high temperatures. That means less people get sick. simple as that. Coronaviruses and influenza hate hot weather. That's a medical fact accepted by all medical personnel in the world. Many experiments have consistently demonstrated this fact for many decades. No need to argue about that.

About fever. Typical influenza and Coronaviruses are killed at 50-60oC. Many outside concrete, asphalt and metal surfaces, especially in downtowns with tall builders trapping the hot air, under the sun in the summer get even hotter than that. So in the summer, viruses cannot survive long on those surfaces, a few seconds as opposed to many hours and up to days at low temps <10oC. Our body temperature can never get that high (well, hopefully not that high). 41/42oC would be extremely high for us. Our brain will be literally roasted to a scrambled egg if our body temperature gets higher than 44oC for a while. Viruses are perfectly fine at these temperatures. So the purpose of a fever is never to directly kill the virus. A fever is an immune response. As I have described before, our immune response is a highly energy costly process. We need an energy boost to kickstart the process. A higher body temperature kickstarts the immune response. We need that extra energy to start pumping out immune cells and send them to the site of infection.

About sauna and hot bath. Keep in mind that we are warm blooded. No matter how high the surrounding temperature, our body will try to maintain a constant temperature. That's why you sweat so much in an sauna. Sweating is a cooling mechanism. As the sweat melts on your skin (an endothermic process that absorbs heat), your blood under the skin cools down. Your circulation will take the cooler blood to the entire body to cool you down, thus maintaining your body temperature between 37 and 38oC. You certainly do not hope to get your body temperature too high. Our brain is very fragile and very sensitive to temperature. This is also why many people experience deadly problems when they stay in sauna for too long. Their bodies' cooling mechanism stops working, and their body temperature gets too high and causes high blood pressure, blood clot, organ failure and brain damage. Not a good strategy to fight infections.

Similarly, many maintain a myth that drinking alcohol will warm you up in a cold weather. That's actually a very bad idea. In a cold weather, your skin will first be exposed to the cold temp. Your blood will be cool. In order to protect your internal organs and your brain, which need an ideal temperature of ~37oC to function, your body slows down circulation. So your cold blood under the skin stays there for longer. That's why you feel cold. When you drink alcohol, your circulation picks up. The cold blood under your skin will be sent to your organs and brain. Yes, your limbs will feel better because the warm blood inside your body is now sent to your limbs. At the same time, the cold blood has now reached your organs and brain, cooling them down and causing them to stop working. Bad idea! Yes, you will feel better, but at the cost of damaging your crucial organs.

Wow, I've been doing it wrong and harming myself all this time!

 

[Quickie]

It could be from Chinese export item diverted to Italy Or it could be from China branch of Medicom
Anyway US exhumed victim of Flu and found out it was Corona virus that kill them. So the Japanese suspect of the virus originated in US is not hoax after all Via Emperor

So the US CDC has finally confirmed what we have suspected all along. Some of the so-called flu death in America had in fact been found to be caused by coronavirus posthumously. Just that they didn't know before because they were never tested. That fits in with previous reports in Japan that a Japanese contracted coronavirus in Hawaii even before the Wuhan outbreak and the Italians discovered that a different strain of the virus had already been circulating in Italy before the arrival of Chinese patients.

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12 hr 54 min ago
CDC director says some coronavirus-related deaths have been found posthumously

During the House Oversight Committee discussion on the novel coronavirus response, the director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said some deaths from coronavirus have been discovered posthumously.

Rep. Harley Rouda asked CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield if it’s possible that some flu patients may have been misdiagnosed and actually had coronavirus.

"The standard practice is the first thing you do is test for influenza, so if they had influenza they would be positive," Redfield said.

Rouda then asked Redfield if they are doing posthumous testing.

Redfield said there has been "a surveillance system of deaths from pneumonia, that the CDC has; it’s not in every city, every state, every hospital.”

Rouda followed up and asked, “So we could have some people in the United States dying for what appears to be influenza when in fact it could be the coronavirus?”

The doctor replied that “some cases have actually been diagnosed that way in the United States today.”

Wow...the smoking gun proof from the horse's mouth?

 

[Gatekeeper]

Is it me or does Netherlands have disproportionate numbers of coronavirus racist stuff like this against Asians recently?

Its a shame, I've family in netherlands, this includes ethnic Chinese and white dutch people. And my family are very liberal. But unfortunately, there are large numbers of less tolerant people in netherlands nowaday. They have a tradition called blackfaced, where people go about in public in broad daylight dressed up like Trudeau did in Canada!

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 8:46 PM

Yesterday at 7:45 PM it's 12462 today (827 dead so far :-( according to

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)

predicting 14593 for tomorrow (March 12) using #12, 14, 16 and 18:

it's more (15113) than predicted, and 1016 killed :-(

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the same way as yesterday guessing 16671 tomorrow (March 13):