Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Even if fully vaxxed would confer 99% effectiveness against severe illness, you will still get 9 million severely ill people if we extrapolate from the 900 million figure.
99% vaccine effectiveness means 99% lower risk of symptomatic infection compared to unvaccinated population, doesn't mean that 99% of people don't get symptomatic infection. Moreover, less than 1% of symptomatic infections even become severe stage. Basically your math is all wrong, you can't just multiple them together that way. That doesn't make sense from epidemiological standpoint.
 

supercat

Major
More infections for those who received a Moderna boost dose than those who did not:

FDA vaccine advisers ‘disappointed’ and ‘angry’ that early data about new Covid-19 booster shot wasn’t presented for review last year​

It found that 1.9% of the study participants who received the original booster became infected. Among those who got the updated bivalent vaccine – the one that scientists hoped would work better – a higher percentage, 3.2%, became infected. Both versions of the shot were found to be safe.
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China’s Production of Covid-19 Drugs Surges After New Year’s Day
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Quickie

Colonel
China's second oral anti-COVID med was approved.
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No new variants have been detected in China so far.
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China is analyzing excess deaths and will announce the results later.
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So it's now clear from the news report that the Covid related death number in hospitals in China is not that of excess deaths due to Covid.

The excess deaths due to covid in hospitals will likely be less than the reported covid related death in hospitals which are defined as below from the report.

" The commission explained that China has insisted on classifying the deaths of patients with a positive nucleic acid test as COVID-19-related deaths, which is in line with WHO and international standards. "

The excess deaths due to Covid outside of hospitals would be relatively low as most people down with Covid will likely end up in a hospital and most people in China traditionally choose to die in a hospital (as mentioned in some news reports).

For the above reasons, hopefully, the excess death number will finally come out mercifully low.
 

supercat

Major
China passes peaks of COVID waves
Large-scale epidemic resurgence following Spring Festival holiday unlikely: experts

The national number of emergency department visits peaked on January 2, and decreased by 44 percent on January 17 from the peak, while the number of patients in severe conditions in hospitals peaked on January 5 and dropped 44.3 percent by January 17, Guo said.
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3 Omicron-specific vaccines and one monoclonal antibody are under development in China.
Liu Jingzhen, Sinopharm chairman, said in an interview with China Central Television (CCTV) on Wednesday that the group had developed four Omicron-specific candidate vaccines including inactivated, recombinant protein, and mRNA varieties, as well as a very effective preventative inhaled monoclonal antibody product.
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supercat

Major
With 80% infection rate and more than 90% vaccination rate, another big wave of infection is highly unlikely in the next 2 to 3 months. This is important because China needs another 2-3 month to finish the 3rd booster dose for those 60 yo and above.
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The Chinese CDC has stopped updating daily vaccination data since Jan 13. From Dec 12 to Jan 13, about 40 million doses were given. Since China had 100-105 million 60 yo and above who had not received a 3rd dose in early December, it will take another 2-3 months to vaccinate those for 3rd dose.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
China CDC released the latest stats on Covid. The peaks of infection, hospitalization and death have all passed.

Hospitalizations peaked at 1.685 millions on Jan 5. Among them, those with severa symptoms peaked at 128 thousands on Jan 5.

Daily deaths peaked at 4273 on Jan 4. Note this is the number of deaths in hospitals. Death at home will have to be tallied as excess deaths later (likely not by the China CDC).

The dominating variants are BF5.2 and BF7. No new unknown variants found.

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PCR tests and infection rate (below).
1.jpg

Antigen tests and infection rate (as voluntarily reported by residents of some provinces/municipalities).
2.jpg

Visits to the fever clinics.
3.jpg

Hospitalizations (including those with the severe symptoms).
4.jpg

Hospitalizations with severe symptoms.
5.jpg

Deaths (in hospitals).
6.jpg
 
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