Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Jianguo]

The reopening since December last year has resulted in a truly high toll, especially for the elderly population.

Recall that for the last 3 years, China only had around 5200+ deaths.

Now, in just barely more than one month, the death toll is more than 10 times that amount. It is a real tragedy.

Consider this in relative terms. Before the re-opening, China was an extreme outlier, such that <6000 deaths from a billion plus population was statistically almost zero. From all indications, the peak already passed in most provinces and hospital saturation has ebbed everywhere. So, this is probably the worst it is going to get. I was actually quite surprised over the low 59938 number. What happens in the coming months after all the family reunions during Chinese New Year is the next hurtle to cross. However, if these current numbers indicate anything, it shows that we're probably already out of the woods.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Consider this in relative terms. Before the re-opening, China was an extreme outlier, such that <6000 deaths from a billion plus population was statistically almost zero. From all indications, the peak already passed in most provinces and hospital saturation has ebbed everywhere. So, this is probably the worst it is going to get. I was actually quite surprised over the low 59938 number. What happens in the coming months after all the family reunions during Chinese New Year is the next hurtle to cross. However, if these current numbers indicate anything, it shows that we're probably already out of the woods.

I agree with you.

Regarding the number of COVID-related deaths, some Weibo users have claimed that the actual number is higher due to the quoted number of deaths being only the ones recorded by hospitals and other medical institutions, i.e. the deaths that occured in hospitals and other medical institutions. Which means, there are other cases of COVID-related deaths that weren't included in the numbers reported today, mainly because the deaths occured in private residences or non-medical institutions.

My only wish is that the undeclared/non-included number of deaths would be lower than the declared number of deaths.

But you're right, this is a hurdle that families across China must endure.

 

[Quickie]

China announced Covid-related death toll between Dec 8, 2022 - Jan 12, 2023

Total deaths, 59938.
5503 due to respiratory failure; 54435 due to underlying disease combined w/ #Covid infection.
Average age: 80.3; 90% above 65.
90% of the deaths had underlying diseases.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1614212543605792768

I suppose that is NOT the number of excess death over the period?

The title would be misleading if that's the case. It should be like "Dying with Covid death toll"

Because of the high percentage of people in China found to be infected in that period, the number of people dying with the Covid infection is bound to be very high.

The question that people are more concerned with would be the Excess Deaths caused by Covid out of that number over the period.

 

[xypher]

Consider this in relative terms. Before the re-opening, China was an extreme outlier, such that <6000 deaths from a billion plus population was statistically almost zero. From all indications, the peak already passed in most provinces and hospital saturation has ebbed everywhere. So, this is probably the worst it is going to get. I was actually quite surprised over the low 59938 number. What happens in the coming months after all the family reunions during Chinese New Year is the next hurtle to cross. However, if these current numbers indicate anything, it shows that we're probably already out of the woods.

Total toll will probably be around 150-200 thousand, the current strains are not as deadly as the early ones like Delta which were wrecking Western countries when China was still in zero-COVID mode.

 

[coolgod]

Total toll will probably be around 150-200 thousand, the current strains are not as deadly as the early ones like Delta which were wrecking Western countries when China was still in zero-COVID mode.

I think the total death toll (from excess deaths) till the end of this wave would be around 500k, remember death numbers lags infection numbers and many deaths are not in a hospital or officially counted as covid deaths . If the total death toll from COVID is below 1 million, I'd consider China's handling of Covid to be a great success.

 

[tankphobia]

I think the total death toll (from excess deaths) till the end of this wave would be around 500k, remember death numbers lags infection numbers and many deaths are not in a hospital or officially counted as covid deaths . If the total death toll from COVID is below 1 million, I'd consider China's handling of Covid to be a great success.

With reporting of up to 900 million Chinese already infected, I'll find that getting below 1 million deaths to be a miraculous success to be honest.

No amount of health care infrastructure will cope with that amount of sick people in such a short period of time. We'll need to wait and see official excess death statistics before making bold predictions about how many people passed from this wave unfortunately.

Even if fully vaxxed would confer 99% effectiveness against severe illness, you will still get 9 million severely ill people if we extrapolate from the 900 million figure.

 

[xypher]

Even if fully vaxxed would confer 99% effectiveness against severe illness, you will still get 9 million severely ill people if we extrapolate from the 900 million figure.

This calc does not make sense though because the chance of getting a severe COVID is not 100% pre-vaccination. It is probably around 1% or so, with vaccines driving it further to < 0.1%. Most people (esp. young) have flu-like symptoms at most, plenty are asymptomatic.

 

[GZDRefugee]

What are the chances of a new strain emerging as it tears through the population? Usually viruses mutate to be more infectious but less lethal, but that can't be counted upon.

Aside, this is that those A4 protesters wanted. Are they gonna be held accountable for their selfish actions?

 

[KYli]

What are the chances of a new strain emerging as it tears through the population? Usually viruses mutate to be more infectious but less lethal, but that can't be counted upon.

Aside, this is that those A4 protesters wanted. Are they gonna be held accountable for their selfish actions?

Current outbreak is due mostly to B5 and B7. After the current wave is over, XBB1.5 from other countries would spread to China. After that, it is anyone guess.

Didn't NPR say that China arrested a few women which are the leaders of A4 protests. I am not sure what the government is going to do with these feminism and wokeism young ladies. It seems like young women have become the mainstay of color revolutions.

 

[tankphobia]

This calc does not make sense though because the chance of getting a severe COVID is not 100% pre-vaccination. It is probably around 1% or so, with vaccines driving it further to < 0.1%. Most people (esp. young) have flu-like symptoms at most, plenty are asymptomatic.

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Covid fatality rate hovers from close to 15% at the beginning down to around 1% now around the world, so yes it should be much lower now but with the large population even a absurdly low percentage will lead to a large number of deaths.

My calc was just projecting what the health system would be looking at dealing with, not necessarily saying how many people will die. Severe illness also does not always lead to death, treatment for covid has improved a lot since the beginning of the pandemic so I would still wait for official stats before making any definitive statements/concrete numbers.